2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Lower Court hearing in Steuben is scheduled for February 24.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1499417008697483264?s=20&t=hVYk9u6f...

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1499416657080598530?s=20&t=hVYk9u6f...

Initial hearing is happening today on the NY maps. That said, this looks like it will end up as the second time Purcell in effect is applied to redistricting cases after Alabama slammed the door shut. Also reminder that NY calls lower courts 'supreme' and the highest one 'appeals.'

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1509598742483283982

Would be very surprising in my eyes if the plaintiffs don't get a favorable result from a judge they 'shopped around' for, at which point it is then appealed upwards to the higher courts.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1526228771841482752?s=20&t=Q86U48...

Not the outcome the GOP wanted. Also not what incumbents wanted.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, they really bacon-stripped the Orthodox and Asian communities in south Brooklyn.

At least Tompkins is in a competitive seat.

I have said it before and I will say it again: in order to not discriminate against the various NYC groups that are legally protected, you need to find Whites from somewhere to add into the seats to prevent minority packing, and the Orthodox are just the closest and most readily available. The progressives are also a viable option, but as shown by this map, you need to partially carve them both up for all the minority seats. There is a reason why the GOP's dream map had one of the LI seats reach into the region, rather than use a existing dem seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain to me a few things:

How come Wasserman thinks this is terrible for D’s yet Cohn thinks it’s great for Dems (and so do some posters here)

Cohn explains his and Dave's reasonings. Essentially, Dave is looking at it solely from 2022 persepective, so lots of Blue swing seats is bad for Ds. But Cohn and much of other geo-nerds are looking at it either in the average year - where many of the swing seats favor Ds - or are comparing it to what was also on the table. That latter view sees this as one of the best deals possible for Dems.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1526300363309125632?s=20&t=Q86U48...

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1526302382996455425?s=20&t=Q86U48...


Like the Congressional Plan, this amounts to basically making the gerry'ed map competitive where it should, rather than swing back towards the GOP. Still limited relief for republicans who say their old lines collapse.

[Oryxslayer]

Torie  you say Cervantes tried to avoid county chops but I think the goal was make a reasonable map with as many dem favorable decisions as reasonably possible.
Proof ?
Check out Albany County in the state senate map. He chops it despite it being 98.5% of a district and adds deep red Montgomery to unpack it  while making the Rensselaer district more D along with helping out the Saratoga district with Schnetenady

i have not reviewed the State Senate map. Do the Dems have a reasonably safe two thirds majority in the State Senate from his map? That is where the rubber meets the road. How many competitive seats did he draw? Did he make a claim as to that with the State Senate map? Is the SS map put up on the Court site?

See my last post for the link. Lots of Dem seats like the gerrymandered map, just more competitive where they should have been. Biden won the 32nd most Dem seat by 20 points, and the 42nd by 9 points.

[Oryxslayer]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1526655757533446151

Bwahahahahaha

There were rumors yesterday that he was already taking on staff. But progressive local politicians are also looking at the sear, so another primary looks to be in the works.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1527098981628710912?s=20&t=t0-txa...

GOP submitted "adjustments" map. Kinda repeats what I have said, and how drawing the Orthodox seat harms the minority seats, in this case the Central Brooklyn Hispanic seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Gib maps.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a3a223ed-54cf-4b54-8ea3-6f9312d7c405



Unsuprisingly, very similar map. Main changes are in NY-11, Suffolk going N-S now, and the Albany region. Also if SPM doesn't run in his current seat now he's just a asshole.


Senate: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::db25a7a8-477a-4443-bc68-9a157f9b2cc8

Most interesting things are a rightful Babylon Majority-minority seat, the max-asian seat in south Brooklyn, and Syracuse now is weirder. On the draft map, Biden won the 32nd most Dem seat by 20 points, and the 42nd by 9 points. On this map, he wins the 32nd by 23 points, and the 42nd by 10.5 points. So marginally better in terms of the Dem supermajority.

[Oryxslayer]

Odds of passing?

Unknown.

If we go by what happened last time, then it's going to come down to who sits the unfilled chief justice's or justice's (if hochul just appoints a current member to chief) chair.

[Oryxslayer]

This is the other way to get a favorable Dem config in upstate NY, though for a variety of reasons, I think this is less likely and less desireable. On can do some shoring up around the margins here too.

Someone in Dem leadership pls see this and don’t be too greedy again.

It looks like Albany county may have been split too much.  Ive seen much cleaner 22-4 maps than this. 

Albany County is literally hole. It’s hard to draw something much cleaner without sacrificing partisanship.

IDK why you have chosen to sink Ithaca, but that probably helps out through cascading effects.

[Oryxslayer]

Expect a redraw now:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/nyregion/hochul-chief-judge.html

If the Democrats just need to play it a bit more conservative, then the best thing to do is still pair Ithaca with Syracuse and not split up the Albany area like that map above. One R seat on Long Island and four R seats Upstate probably works. Maybe a Lean D but only Lean seat based around Staten Island.

Yes, Wilson is a strong signal here that the redistricting fight is a serious challenge - reminder he said the Hochulmander was legal and fair in his dissent.

However, this gets to the second point, which is that the Hochulmander is not coming back, even if the legislature can remap again. The 2022 elections shook up the players in congressional NY politics so one could expect different priorities and goals. For example:

- SPM is gone and him the desire to make NY-18 drawn to his specifications. But there is now a republican in NY-17. so one might theorize that the lower valley districts  would be drawn around the geography of the 2022 result's in the region's seats. Also gone is Jones's outreach and curious appeal among the Hasidic towns in the region.

- Brandon Williams is not John Katko, so not as much resources need to be devoted to Syracuse as before. Also the original map seemed to be designed to bring Brindisi back but he didn't bite.

- Claudia Tenney showed she could hop districts and still get elected, so there's not much point trying to force upstate R v R primaries in the safe seats.

- There are three additional GOP representatives in districts drawn to reelect democrats on the Hochulmander, not to mention two more who were targeted by that map but got more reasonable seats under the remap. One can imagine Dems prioritizing the first group more than before and perhaps the second a bit less, especially if former players like Suozzi want to come back (even though in his case the battle is already won).

- Goldman effectively replacing Maloney means that there are now different desires coming out of the Manhattan region's districts, and would certainly have cascading effects on things like what the Hochulmander's NY-10.

- NEW: Suozzi is all but running for his old seats vs Santos. He would probably prefer a district that more resembles the 2020 version than the new one which heads towards the southern Republican-leaning part of Oyster Bay, even though he's been elected county-wide before.

- In general, the increased scrutiny placed on new lines implemented during mid-decade remaps means tentacles and visual peculiarities are not appreciated, even though biased partisanship is achievable through other means.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my attempt to harmonize the Hochulmander with the map passed by the special master, while also taking into affect the reshuffling of priorities that occurred in response to that map, some of which I listed above. For example, NY-18 was made and remains a Ulster county seat - cause that's Ryan's base - and NY-17 is drawn to both be sensible but also insert a lot of new voters and make the seat bluer - to specifically get rid of Lawler. Colors are the 2020 election results:








The linchpin of much of the downstate portion of the map is NY-10, which once again heads deep into Brooklyn., but not in a crazy way like the first map. And there is now a justification one can defend, and its a justification that all but forces NY-11 to go up towards red hook:



Also it's a reason that has the ironic effect based on 2022 results of removing a bunch of progressive and Niou areas even though the Asian VAP goes way up. This is cause the Brooklyn Asians were less progressive and did not vote for her based on precinct results, her areas besides NYC Chinatown were Park Slope and the downtown Brooklyn. Those regions are mainly tossed in NY-11.

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1



EDIT: I should add to my previous post, and well this one that Jeffries is now going to have significant sway with how his district is ordered. So it both can't really change from the general form it took since 2010 and implemented in both map iterations, and it can't include any of the progressive primary challenger areas northwest of Prospect Park that were in the 2010 version. Reminder Yvette Clarke almost got knocked out in 2018 cause of turnout disparities, the incumbents are very aware over what shouldn't be in their seats. He would seemingly prefer having as much of the South Brooklyn Whites as possible to be the counterweight to the AA precents and avoid packing, since the majority don't vote in Dem primaries and those that do would vote for him. In that way, I gave him not just all of Russian areas at the southern side close to Coney Island. 

[Oryxslayer]

The partisanship in selected districts, going from Hochulmander -> Court Remap -> This Map. As you'll see, the 2022 results drove actions in certain seats:

NY01: Biden+10.8, Biden+0.2, Biden+8.5

NY03: Biden+14.2, Biden+8.1, Biden+15.5

NY04: Biden+12.1, Biden+14.5, Biden+18.1

NY11: Biden+9.5, Trump+7.6, Biden+11.9

NY17: Biden+13.3, Biden+10.1, Biden+17.8

NY18: Biden+8.2, Biden+8.3, Biden+12.2

NY19: Biden+10, Biden+4.6, Biden+9.6

NY22: Biden+18.1, Biden+7.4, Biden+13.1

Any guess on how this map would have played out in 2022?

People who have the data have done the math and calculated that the Hochulmander in 2022 would hold in Upstate but fall in downstate, so everything I will say next flows from there.

The long Island seats are iffy. The republican margins of victory in NY03 and NY04 are both just barely   larger than the raw 2020 margin increase from the court map in both cases However, these increase mainly come from dropping areas that one could describe as high turnout with varying partisanship, whereas they gain areas that in 2022 would be noticeably lower turnout but had less swing voters or high turnout Republicans. Schumer did win the current NY-04, so maybe we split these two between the parties? NY-01  stays GOP.

Beyond Long Island though we get into the serious realm of What Ifs. Malliotakis overperformed by more that this district's base partisanship, but that's arguably was because she was left alone. Would this still have occurred in a district with less swing voter and more lockstep liberal democrats? Dem's certainly would have invested since it was Max Rose attempting a comeback.

Similarly, Upstate. Would Katko have retired if there wasn't Ithaca in his seat? Would Delgado have sought a way out if he knew his district would become safer? if he doesn't, does Ryan even enter the picture? What about the game of musical chairs that occurred the Westchester districts that indirectly led to NY-17 flipping.

This all leads to my wider point, that this map couldn't have been implemented in 2022 because it is created in reaction to 2022. Manhattan could never have been drawn like this until the UWS and UES got paired together and on of their congressmen lost. Suddenly Nadler has a following in the UWS and may not want to drop it in favor of regions less similar to liberal Manhattan. Incumbents, especially SPM, dictated the Westchester/North suburbs seats, and they are all gone, and a new incumbent would hypothetically want a Ulster seat. Would Velázquez accept a seat without Red Hook until it was forcibly removed? Nor would there be an incentive to make the Nassau seats bluer like there is now.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a way to do this where NY-03 is the GOP vote sink in Long Island?

I'm sure if you were to get squiggly, but that not likely right now. Basically, most of the Long Island GOP strongholds today are either along the southern shoreline east of Freeport, or Smithtown in the northeast. Dem do better in the more diverse parts: adjacent to NYC with AA  spillover in the south and Chinese in the north, and the urban parts like Freeport, Islip, and and Babylon. thats an issue for the NY03 line, since it's natural core of of the North Hempstead towns are too democratic.

There is another line which is you push NY-04 into Jamaica, rotate things around in NYC, and then push other NYC seats like NY-06 out into NY03 turf of Nassau. That would free up space in NY-03 to shift its base. However, Meeks would never allow that.

[Oryxslayer]

Do you think theoretically, NY Dems can claim a direct connection from Staten Island to Lower Manhattan via the Staten Island Ferry, which sees very high ridership (~60k daily). I also wonder if they could then use the 4th Avenue Subway (~300k daily riders) to justify a Park Slope-Sunset Park-Borrough Park-Bensonhurst type of seat for Dan Goldman.

This unintentionally gets to the 4th corner of NYC politics/redistricting, a corner not as important in other states. We have D vs R, PoC vs White, Incumbents vs Wider Goals, but also Radical Politics vs Mainstream Dem Politics. That final one manifests itself in the 2.5 party system found opposite Manhattan with large numbers of voters who don't want politics as usual and can easily be whipped up for a primary challenge. For simplicities sake, lets refer to these voters as the "Working Families Block" since that is a clear defined label and not a nebulous term as say 'Progressive.'

Right now, almost everyone who has districts that surround the Working Families electorate do not want them whatsoever. These areas are high turnout and that is a problem if your base is say a minority group. You can actually see districts 8 and 9 withdrawing from this region on both of the congressional plans from last year, since both incumbents desperately wanted the White precincts to not come from these neighborhoods. Clarke almost learned that the hard way. Similarly, freshman Goldman did not do that well in the Park Slope/Brooklyn parts of his seat in 2022. Obviously this is all relative since he was just king of the ashes in such a convoluted primary, but its clear that his base was Mainstream Liberals mostly found in Manhattan outside the ethnic enclaves. Finally, AOC (of Queens) would love to take in the Working Families voters but her seat geographically is locked to the Bronx and Corona through minority access.

Therefore, Dems would love to get a new seat in NYC - through say a hypothetical congressional expansion - and make it AOCs Working Families pack, and the Bronx has an open Hispanic seat. Everyone goes home happy. But that's not gonna happen. The next best thing is then to do the Manhattan - Staten link as you bring up. This frees up one of 3 White seats in the city - currently wasted from the Dem perspective - and allows NY11 to become the new Brooklyn Working Families district. The population numbers actually come out near perfect, Goldman gets protected, everyone is happy. So if Dems thought that was practical, or possible, they probably would have tried it just with Nadler's NY10 last time.

Which brings us to South Brooklyn. Fundamentally, there are the transitioning parts with a growing Chinese population, the parts sill dominated by Eastern Europeans, and the Hasidic parts. Both the Hochulmander and the master map mistreated the Chinese section though the masters was better, which is one of the reasons why I looked at it as a possible COI. However, the rest of south Brooklyn is extremely desired by the other incumbents since it all but ensures there won't be primaries against them - Goldman isn't getting any. This is fundamentally also why Dems want to throw as much of Park Slope and beyond into NY11 - it means it isn't in their districts. Plus there's the bonus that a more marginal seat may produce different voter behaviors and Working Families neighborhoods would choose an electable candidate over an ideological one.

And the last point - NY07. I have not mentioned it so far because it is the exception. Velázquez seems to not fear a challenge and is good with taking on more when compared to last decades map, perhaps as long as Hispanics retain the plurality. Of course this means that the district all but drawn to elect Julia Salazar when Velázquez retires later in the decade, but I suspect everyone has already made their peace with that outcome.

[Oryxslayer]

Do we think Goldman is okay with essentially getting a Staten Island district?

The going theory is that given who supported him in 2022, and his alignment, Goldman would prefer anything that isn't part of the Working Families base areas also long as he maintains enough of Manhattan. Be it it Chinese regions, Staten island, or minority block areas if they were made available. Maybe he will surprise us though and want to keep Park Slope.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1649096021174284288?s=20

Here's the new assembly maps that will go before the chamber for a vote in the future. The the important corollary in tweet is probably what to keep an eye one, cause the case that could undo the court map congressionally also could render this a dead letter.

[Oryxslayer]

The minimal-changes assembly map which really only changed that tentacle district in the middle of upstate is approved.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1650615031581626375?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

I don't know why this map was overturned considering that in 2022 in NY, Dems won 56% of the vote and won 58% of the seats

The map is good from most measures of fair redistricting. Its not getting challenged, its the 2021/2 process which is getting challenged under procedural grounds. And ruling against that procedure would require restarting it, and to the benefit (and purpose) of the dems giving them another crack at it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/qlzsu/status/1679582626791735296

This is the obvious D gerrymander move in the area, but you have to finish it up by giving Goldman Chinatown so you can justify it as keeping the Chinese community together.

In the event of a redrawing in NYC, if they're willing to have more erosity in return for grouping communities of interest together I'd suggest this.

Six districts modified (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12). 11th is anchored in Goldman's strongest areas in Manhattan and is Biden+17, so I'm sure Goldman would be happy with it; 7th regains Park Slope; the new 10th is plurality Asian.

Grouping SI with parts of Manhattan works too.  It can be done without looking erose.

I will laugh if we ever see something like the above. In a twisted way it makes a lot of sense, and couldn't have been passed with the 2020 incumbents, but is also very clearly a pretty partisan move.

NY-10 after 2020 took in the Hasidim of Brooklyn, that is now very unlikely. Back then there were two White incumbents in Upper Manhattan rather than one, and now Jeffries's CBC allies are bolder and empowered to desire the whole of Republican Brooklyn. NY-10 after the special remapping takes in Park Slope and other downtown Brooklyn Working Families strongholds. These areas did not vote for the primary winner Goldman, and represent a fertile base where future progressive challengers will emerge from.

Goldman wants to be protected from Progressives despite there being no more upscale Liberal areas easily available for him: White Staten is weirdly the best option. Nadler previously had to negotiate with Maloney for every neighborhood in Manhattan - now there is only one and the master gave Nadler incumbency over the Upper East Side. NY-11 currently takes in south Chinese Brooklyn - that is maintained for continuity. But the growing NYC Chinese community was uniquely mistreated during the congressional special master's remap, splitting it between four districts. Lets remedy that with an access district which will probably elect a Chinese-American, perhaps the same one who if not sidetracked in this manner will challenge Jeffries's African American ally in the mayors office.

Its also not a change so easily undone. Besides the fact that the Chinese population of Brooklyn is growing, all types of minority constituents raise loud voices and legal claims if their access seats are destroyed during remapping processes. Something like this would be effectively reducing NYC's White districts from 3 to 2, and Staten-Manhatten would remain the simplest option in future redistricting processes to pack Whites and not dilute a minority seat into a White one.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1683884918240161810

Republicans appeal the decision; first test of the new Wilson court. My hunch is that Troutman, not Halligan, is the true swing vote, but we shall see.

Court is in recess until mid-September, so any movement in this arena would be surprising until then.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1691109898568994816?t=Pqer4SZGKMAu44D7k...

High Court orders a normal (not expidited) schedule for briefing on whether to take and hear the lower appeal.