2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1480637357242171400?s=20

And so we labour onwards.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, 4-142? As in, only 4 votes in favor? Ouch.

The other D maps were defeated by similar margins. The D's almost all went against, and so did the R's - for different reasons. And D's have the supermajority. Senate went 0-63 on one of the D maps. GOp voted for their stuff but they have zero leverage.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction is that if Staten Island is not sunk full of gentrifiers, it will not be because of the South Brooklyn republicans, but because of West Brooklyn. Velázquez wanted Red Hook and Sunset Park in 2010 and Nadler Borough Park. Those demands may be maintained. If you already have two districts snaking along the shoreline, it's going to be hard - not impossible but very hard - to fit in a third.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CatieEdmondson/status/1482029647068082176?s=20

So much for any potential overperformance.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1485622230847475719?s=20

I assume the Dem's proposed another, perhaps even more biased map, and the GOP has just had enough. Of course they are playing into Dem hands here, but that might just be the only option.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1486408696414576646?s=20

Maps coming next week.

[Oryxslayer]

If you actually read through the memo, it's like SPM and the insiders have already drawn a map and are just describing into the legislature.

[Oryxslayer]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

"Who needs road continuity when there's the Staten Island ferry?" - whoever came up with that idea.

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1486476336793333764?s=20

I mean if any district has justification to use water crossing, its this one. 70K average riders per day on the ferry.

[Oryxslayer]

An interesting thing is the immediate effects of Katko's retirement. SPM does propose resurrecting the earmuffs, but not to create a third Dem seat between Rochester and Buffalo. No, the earmuffs are the Rochester seat. Instead, eastern Rochester and the suburbs would go with Syracuse connected by the shoreline towns and not much else. Most of Ithaca and Binghamton would go in NY-19.

[Oryxslayer]

I think as for passing the map, any map should be able to pass the State General Assembly. As for the state Senate, they can only afford to have 1 defection who is most likely to be Simcha Felda who has switched like 3 times now and who State Dems don't have a very good grip on. I think if they argue it from the perspective this is our duty to cancel out R gerrymandering nationwide, a more aggressive map has a more reasonable chance of passing than just trying to hide the fact it's a gerrymander. This ofc assumes the map that's introduced is a pretty severe gerrymander. I do wonder if it's possible some far-left NYC state senator who doesn't have great ties to the state party (think Julia Salazar) could actually derail a gerrymander, as there really aren't that many moderate NY State D Senators.

FTR, Dems may actually only might now need a simple 50%+1 vote since the commission broke down and threw up their hands, rather than give them anything to propose amendments to. The law is weirdly worded here, and whenever I come across weird wording in NYS law, it usually isn't there by accident. I'm sure we'll see whenever a floor vote occurs, but that twitter community that switched their pfp's to laser-eyed-hochul certainly read it as simple majority....though they are the perhaps the worst source for legal advice.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NickTagliaferro/status/1487099865045905409?s=20&t=01NcCN...

Potential info on the nukage of Staten.

[Oryxslayer]

Same kinda story here, there's never actually been any evidence of national dictation when it comes to drawing maps. The closest you get is the national effort through Redmap, but the goal there was to give the state parties the tools and incentive to gerrymander, but not actually help make the maps themselves.

And this time around they don't even have Redmap, or a similar program, going on.

If there are two reasons why this cycle is not playing out as the GOP desired, it is cause of the better position of the dems - thanks to 2018 - and the death of Thomas Hofeller. Hofeller knew what demographic indicators to look for beyond the topline partisanship of his time, allowing him to provide data proving the maps wouldn't instantly collapse. Now of course you can do swings and other calculations, but the GOP doesn't know how far the suburbs might collapse so caution is the legislators watchword.

[Oryxslayer]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Because drawing Staten Island to Brooklyn gives those annoying Crane Husbands of NYC their seat. Drawing to Manhattan doesn't do the same as neither Nadler nor Maloney will take Staten Island and now Maloney is further pushed out of Manhattan. Nadler is needed to take the Orthodox Jews anyway.

I'm not sure how possible this is if NY-11 is going up to Park Slope, and NY-07 still goes down to the Hispanic side of Sunset Park and Red Hook. Three districts squiggling along the coast is too much, which is probably why SPM discovered than Staten-Manhattan was an easier lift. But I'm sure one compromise or another will be found.

[Oryxslayer]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

If they don't get released, blame the blizzard.

[Oryxslayer]

The previous tweets were apparently not the actual bills?

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487884644771057672?s=20&t=XODby3...

Its the fing SPM map isn't it...at least on long Island.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487885140122611719?s=20&t=XODby3...

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487885452967358470?s=20&t=XODby3...

Albany in NY19?

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like NY-26 is kept whole meaning no snake

Yes no Earmuffs.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487885796283715584?s=20&t=XODby3...

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1487886394475393029?s=20&t=XODby3...

[Oryxslayer]

[snip tweet]

what the actual fyck is that second Republican district. We've had hundreds of drafts posted by people in this thread that give Dems one more seat than this and are cleaner!

Remember, Democrats have won 100% of the statewide elections in the past x years in New York, and consequently are entitled to 100% of the seats in a fair map.

It still is hilarious the OHGOP tried to use that justification.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, NY-11 has park slope census tracks.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1487901558490734598?cxt=HHwWjIC56bGli6YpAA...

Call me crazy but I think he could have held it for one more term.

The earlier version proposed by the D side of the commission was even more aggressive, almost a Dem pack around the region. His retirement is the reason why this seat isn't Biden+20somthing.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/aaronnarraph/status/1487907050130710532?s=20&t=XODby3NT4...



Almost exactly what the NYPost reported. And very dem, close to Biden+12 methinks.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1487916847156637697?s=20&t=XODby3NT...

Whoever said 4 blue LI seats gets tarred and feathered for fake news.

[Oryxslayer]

DRA Link.



NY-01 is Biden+10.8

NY-02 is Trump+14.2

NY-03 is Biden+14.2

NY-04 is Biden+12.1



Damn NY-10, You Squiggle.

NY-05 is 44.5% AA by VAP.

NY-06 is 44.4% Asian by VAP.

NY-07 remains the weird hybrid Progressive-Caribbean seat. 35.9% Hispanic by VAP, 10.6% AA.

NY-08 is 42.1% AA by VAP.

NY-09 is 41.7% AA by VAP. This and NY-08 are exhumed from the progressive regions.

NY-11 is Biden+9.5, 55.1% White by VAP.



NY-10 is 52% Manhattan, 48% Brooklyn. Only 51.5% White by VAP cause of South Brooklyn Asians.

NY-12 is 90% Manhattan. The 10% that is not is the shoreline PoC housing blocks. AoC gets the Progressives. 65.2% White by VAP.

NY-13 is 53.3% Hispanic by VAP.

NY-14 is 45.2% Hispanic by VAP.

NY-15 is 58.5% Hispanic by VAP.



NY-16 is 37.9% White by VAP

Already seen upstate but:

[Oryxslayer]

DRA Link.

NY-11 is disappointing, coming in at only 54.6% Biden.

I am not sure that is enough to secure a Democratic pickup in 2022.

It could easily have been made more Democratic by giving it some of the downtown Brooklyn white progressive areas that are mostly in NY-07.

Note Clinton got the exact same percentage here. These parts of Brooklyn contain voters who will never be splitting tickets...ever.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way anyone have the numbers for ny06?
Safe D for 2022 but worth just keeping a watch on for the future .

Biden +23.7
Clinton +32.3

64.4/32.1 to 61.3/37.5. More relevant is the 44.4% Asian VAP.

[Oryxslayer]

The nonsense of looping a tendril NY-10 around NY-11 reminds me exactly of the vicious gerrymander TX Republicans did in northwestern Dallas County to ensure that VanDuyne's district was solid R and all the Hispanic communities in the area were satisfactorily drowned in Republican districts. It looks almost as bad - the Texas gerrymander pulls in more districts so looks worse.

The thing is though...such tendrils are not needed. Get NY-05 involved in the orthodox carve-up and NY-10 could take other areas. This however what Nadler wants. A district that can best be described as a "Jewish Seat" - dominated by Manhattan of course.