Ohio redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

And on that point, there won't be any proposed maps from the Leg.

https://twitter.com/andy_chow/status/1491114523847458816?s=20&t=YfSCbMCPRbfs...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/andy_chow/status/1493713382792388618?s=20&t=hsBRnhQp4E5z...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1493792500779257864?s=20&t=hsBRnhQp4E5zuWmF...

Legislative lines. I have no idea what is going on other than perhaps trying to use the threat of the clock to sneak another through that the court would frown upon.

[Oryxslayer]

Commission voted down the DEM plan 5-2 again. Republicans have nothing to propose themselves and spent the entire meeting so far doing nothing but obstruct and provide zero solution.

Looks like it'll be going back to the court AGAIN. Stupid pricks.

"We've tried nothing and we are all out of ideas!"

If they don't have a map for the court, then its time for a Legislative special master, or a special mapper who will provide a selection that complies with the courts orders for the commission to vote on.

[Oryxslayer]

The GOP's justification on Thursday was that it was 'impossible' to do comply with the order and other parts of the constitution. Well, the court said in it's initial order that the plaintiff's example maps attached to their briefs were acceptable and legal. So trying that line would probably find them in contempt and give the court justification to strip them of at least part of their authority. Really we are at the point, given LaRose's complaints about deadlines, that emergency action will be undertaken.

[Oryxslayer]

Commissioners Plead innocent. DeWine notably pleads that he had little role over the actual mapping. Dems say they are trying to comply, but the GOP isn't having it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...

Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1496944822292258819?s=20&t=oMmz3LSEDqSb_X5b...

GOP proposes new Leg lines after being found in contempt. Glancing over it, these are meme maps that don't try to solve the marginality issue.

[Oryxslayer]

Frankly, if a state Supreme Court strikes down a map, they should be required to draw a replacement.

Yes, but sometimes they don't have the power/authority to do so and must jump through hoops to get there. And Ohio has finally hit that point. Onto the special masters it is.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway Changes from Original map as its close enough

Toledo I think is 1 point more D.

Akron seat is 2 more points for Biden and a few more points D downballot like Clinton/Cordray numbers.

Cinci seat is Biden +1 to Biden +8.

Columbus seat is Trump +5 to Trump +7. Note the seat was ugly before but not entirely for partisan reasons. It was just to let Carey keep representing the rich banks in the center of the county.

I mean the fact that there barely were changes should be proof enough the commission GOP would never play ball and the court will need to see their own order to conclusion.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1498741299083718664?s=20&t=6fOGsS7CHjg...

[Oryxslayer]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

Because this isn't a serious proposal. In the games of state power, it appears to be more beneficial to recognizably die on a hill preserving incumbent seats - Chabot's and Jordan's for example - rather than cooperate with the court and be the one who has to tell some members they may need to go home or run against each other. Far more simple to get an outsider from the court to do that move.

[Oryxslayer]

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

The federal judge the GOP tried to get involved in the legislative process refused their appeal, at least until emergency is closer at hand. I think that is where we are at.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1504495062817787910?s=20&t=xZU0kT801a-aby...

Mind = Blown

In all seriousness, this is more of a breakthrough than the title betrays. For the past months the three GOP statewide officeholders have by all reports been passive and let the two legislative leaders do the talking and mapping. If the DeWine and the other statewide officials team up with the dems to do something like Incumbent Protection with  decent number of new Dem seats, then the map would likely be accepted.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Also, concerning legislative redistricting:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1506058709285449735?s=20&t=viiILbuPR...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508616050903949316?s=20&t=HQ7APTrthI...

Here's the maps that were passed, its basically the same thing the GOP has wanted from the very start and failed to get approved.

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508643452845711362?s=20&t=HQ7APTrthI...

And here's the expert maps which were voted down. Hiring experts just to ignore them is a real waste of state money.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508884995225669639?s=20&t=HQ7APTrth...

Next state leg developments.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1509167616610512899?s=20&t=dO1mw2nsU...

Timeline on contempt.

[Oryxslayer]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

Yes, this is the entire point of the vote which is occurring in a few months time to raise the standards of collecting signatures and the percentages needed to pass such amendments. The OH GOP know that an abortion initiative is in the pipe,  and a true independent redistricting commission (motivated by the follies of 2022) is not far behind, both of which should easily pass 50% based on precedent from other areas. 

Of course I wouldn't expect the upcoming vote to raise the thresholds to pass, but it's the only possible move as described above.  Voters don't like having power taken from them, and more conservative states saw voters clearly reject these type of initiatives in the higher turnout 2022 midterm environment.

[Oryxslayer]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

Very unclear.  OTOH there is a strong, organized, unexpectedly visible campaign against it and no real campaign for it.  Then again, people tend to default to voting yes on complex ballot issues they don’t really understand, so who knows?

As I said earlier,  states more conservative than Ohio handily rejected measures like this in 2022. The electorate does not like losing its power. The state legislators know this of course,  which is why it's a Hail Mary play, and why they fought hard to separate it from the November ballot to reduce turnout.  That all said, I would expect a blowout in favor of No before I expect a Yes win.

[Oryxslayer]

Signature gathering has began to put a (actually) independent redistricting commission on the 2024 ballot.

[Oryxslayer]

Commission to meet September 13 to begin work on maps from 2022. There are a lot of moving parts here. Ohio does not have legal maps after the 2022 debacle, but they stretched things out until it was too late. The court lost the majority that kept ruling in favor of fairer maps in 2022, so any product would be accepted.  But the commission itself has changed. LaRose is fully in the public eye and can't lose more ground with primary voters. DeWine has made more statements against this type of commission with politicians involved.  Every legislative leader has changed. Most crucial to that fact that Speaker Jason Stephens supposedly made promises to the Dems concerning this redistricting when he got all their votes and defeated the majority of his caucus for said position.  

Then looming over everything is the petition currently collecting signatures. It crucially had provisions that order new maps to be immediately drawn following adoption (after potentially 2024) under the terms of the ammendment,  so that there isn't a multi-year delay between implementation and results.  Said initiative passing would render any and all work done this year less than worthless,  unless it is done to specifically preempt the voters.


All this is to say that while there are some since in favor of more understandable maps, or say sensible incumbent protection, there are a lot more unknowns.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds that they just keep the 2022 maps in place?

Also a very possible option. Certainly many states in similar (certainly not identical) positions in the past just rubber stamp their prior work. Texas had to do so for their legislative lines this year for example cause COVID prevented them from following the official timetable.

In my option, its less likely though since both the Dems and the Reps never wanted the present maps. But who knows, there's many unknowns.

[Oryxslayer]

Shouldn't the Congressional lines be in effect for four years? Or is that part of the Ohio Constitution going to be conveniently ignored by the party that professes to abide by strict constructionism?

If I have it right, the lines are illegal based on the 2022 rulings, but there was no time to correct them. Of course the commission had been changimg and the court rejecting lines the whole year. So.under the ammendment,  they still need to pass a legal map before we talk about duration. 

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that the 2024 Redistricting Amendment looms over anything and everything taking place right now. If that passes in the form it has been drafted, the body would immediately be constituted and remap everything within it's authority.