Ohio redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

Any chance the map is struck down as unconstitutional?

I'd guess there's probably like a 65% chance it gets struck down? Judging by what O'Connor has been saying

What can they do with a replacement map?

I seem to recall the textualists saying stuff about how the amendment requires handing power back to the Legislature with supervision if the court orders a redraw on the legislature maps. But they can do what they want for the Congressional maps.  

If they appoint a special master, who might it be?

Persily and Grofman are the guys who usually put their names forward for such work.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess the question will be now if there is a limited remap focusing on several specific areas, or they find enough evidence everywhere to chuck it all out.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

This type of alignment I, and a lot of others given what is on the public summitted maps on DRA and what others have posted in this thread, have generally liked with individual edits of course. It also tends to be decent for Dems prospects based on recent data, since even the losing candidates did well in both seats and, depending on the lines of course, Biden improves on Clinton's margins. I personally don't like including Erie in the group and instead look into arms to Canton or single towns like Brunswick and Wadsworth cause that allows the Toledo seat to remain 50-50 based on 2020 numbers, but obviously that is a difference of preferences.

The obvious hindrance to making the region truly better for Dems is the rule preventing cutting Cleveland since it's over 100K. The western seat would love to grab 70-100K of plurality White areas in the west of the city, but that's impossible under the rules accepted.

[Oryxslayer]

Just for clarity of the court rejects the map either fully or in part, who draws the new lines? Does it get thrown back to the legislature or does the court do it? What’s to say the legistlature won’t just do something nasty again?

It is explicit that the State leg lines go back to the leg and commission, with court advice and supervision. Notably the court could order full remaps of the legislative lines even if only a few of the districts are found in error, given that this is a simple majority map. Also the opinion will likely be fast, given that LaRose has asked for there to be clear guidance and results in time for the primaries.

[Oryxslayer]

Might have been asked, but when are we expecting a verdict?

Fast, given that LaRose requested an expedited process to preserve filing and primary deadlines, but nothing exact.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1481360465041235969?s=20

Step one done. Full remap.

"The Court ordered the commission to adopt a new plan within 10 days that conforms with the Ohio Constitution. The Court stated it will retain jurisdiction “to review the plan that the commission adopts for compliance with our order.”

Main point is on section 6, and ordered to draw a map that reflects the state's partisanship:

“The Ohio redistricting commission shall attempt to draw a general assembly district plan that meets all of the following standards:

(A) No general assembly district plan shall be drawn primarily to favor or disfavor a political party.
(B) The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio.
(C) General assembly districts shall be compact.”

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Thank God. What about the congressional map?

Separate suit. Though the wording of the majority opinion all but guarantees a full remap ordered there.

[Oryxslayer]

Hahaha, rip Chabot. Hopefully the OHSC orders a full congressional remap as well and we get another winnable seat out of Cleveland, Columbus, or both.

If the court does the same thing, and makes proportionality under Section 6 their focus of scrutiny on the congressional plan, then we are all but guaranteed to see the Akron, Cincinnati, and second Columbus seats, as well as a much better Toledo one.

[Oryxslayer]

Hahaha, rip Chabot. Hopefully the OHSC orders a full congressional remap as well and we get another winnable seat out of Cleveland, Columbus, or both.

If the court does the same thing, and makes proportionality under Section 6 their focus of scrutiny on the congressional plan, then we are all but guaranteed to see the Akron, Cincinnati, and second Columbus seats, as well as a much better Toledo one.

The Toledo seat should be D tilting under the metrics used I think.

Depends upon if it goes north - that would be safe - or south/east for competitive, but that's semantics. At the end of the day, a full remap for proportionality would make massive changes. Also the court ordered this remap done in 10 days. One can only assume it will seize power and call in a master if the commission keeps politiking.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it even legally possible to make a 54 R 46 D state house?

Probably not, but we'll figure out how close is realistically possible in the coming weeks.

[Oryxslayer]

As expected, they cited proportionality in outcomes as part of the justification for ordering the redraw. Also stated it unduly splits Hamilton (Cincinatti Dem seat), Summit (akron Dem seat), and Cuyahoga (probably west county+Lorain Dem seat).

[Oryxslayer]

So who draws the new maps in Ohio and whats the process for it?

Goes back to the legislature, then to the commission if they can't pass anything. If Democrats vote for it I believe the map's good for 10 years with no possibility of redrawing

The goal for the GOP here would be to pass a map that the court agrees with but the Dem's don't, so it is only in place for four years. However, we really don't know how possible that is, and it may not be a realistic option. The court may not approve of anything that the entire Dem caucus would disagree with on fairness grounds.

[Oryxslayer]

Well done.

I mean that general geographic alignment of the districts has basically been the online and activist consensus for a while now, it's no surprise the court wants something like it. I seen the map with various alterations at the margins probably more than 20 times. Here's my third and most recent version - note that it features a barely  Trump Toledo seat rather than a barely Biden one, cause I wanted to put Erie inside the Cleveland grouping.

[Oryxslayer]

Well done.

I mean that general geographic alignment of the districts has basically been the online and activist consensus for a while now, it's no surprise the court wants something like it. I seen the map with various alterations at the margins probably more than 20 times. Here's my third and most recent version - note that it features a barely  Trump Toledo seat rather than a barely Biden one, cause I wanted to put Erie inside the Cleveland grouping.

Lakewood is more dense than Cleveland itself. It clearly belongs with Cleveland. Placing the far south of Cuyahoga before Lakewood is pretty similar to what the GOP did in Cinci although not as bad.

You can argue that stuff all you want, but since the imposed standard is now partisan fairness, sinking a community Biden won by 50 points with the Cleveland seat is no longer going to cut it when it can be used to help facilitate a new swing seat. So you now want to put GOP areas with Cleveland before Dem ones.

[Oryxslayer]

Note that in the exhibits of evidence provided to the suit one can find attached images of the top place finishers of both The Fair Districts Mapping Competition and the Citizen's redistricting Commission's (an advocacy group) map.

They are all variations on the common design, so this is probably what the court is looking for. Some notable differences from the maps posted here are either to put Canton city but not the GOP environs with Summit, or to do the Summit-Portage-Geauga seat which while compact produces a swing rather than dem seat.


Every one puts Lakewood with the suburbs rather than Cleveland. 2/4 keep a CD8 similar to the present one with only Butler and with CD2 taking in both Warren and Clermont, 2/4 redraw CD8 into a compact Bulter-Warren-west Hamilton seat.

[Oryxslayer]

To replace the rejected Ohio map, this is my humble suggestion. Please give constructive criticism and feedback.

Might want to take a look at the county/municipality split rules in the amendment.

I'm fairly sure said post was a meme/joke, given how much it violates all legal principles.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1484893646411423751?s=20


Dems maps btw.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1484940794599546890?s=20

As a follow-up, the GOP maps. These aren't going to fly with the court - a lot of obtuse areas remain the same from the previous version - so there's going likely to be new developments next week.

[Oryxslayer]

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

For the legislature or the Congressional map? Also, what are the partisan leans of said approved map(s)?

For the legislature. The maps are the GOP maps posted above in the twitter link. And while they did pass the commission vote, as expected, the court will now scrutinize them and probably change the game in some fashion.

[Oryxslayer]

If the OH GOP draws a map that the court finds unsatisfactory once again, does the court then draw it? Perhaps the court is fully aware of this and wants this regardless, but making an OH map truly proportional requires a lot of Dem friendly choices. I think a court may actually be too uncomfortable to make a 8-7. I think a map that is proportional enough for the court to accept would be farther left than what the court draws itself.

I mean we will see with the state  legislature maps right now. The court could accept, reject and say try again until a product is satisfactory, or, more likely in my opinion given the time constraints and how little the passed maps reflect some other submitted as evidence the court for acceptable, find them in contempt of the court and change the game so things are not stuck in place. Whatever happens will probably impact the congressional calculus.

[Oryxslayer]

Link to the brief here.

Notes how some obvious changes that could have been made were ignored, and how the plan started with the illegal maps and edited the cracking seats so that there were now marginal D seats - which it finds inadequate based on quality. Revised plan invalidated in entirety like previously.

Commission has until February 17 for new Leg lines. It seems the court will play ping-pong rather than hold the mappers in contempt...for now.


Also, in an unrelated note, we may be seeing some congressional lines tomorrow.

[Oryxslayer]

Ngl, even as a Dem, i think advocating for truly proportional legislative maps in a tilted state like Ohio is kinda messed up since the only way to achieve that is by basically making a Dem gerry.

Ya this push for 'proportionality' in places with GOP-favored geography and 'clean maps' in places with Dem-favored geography is pretty much the number one reason why I don't take Dems seriously when it comes to redistricting reform anymore. I used to think Dems were significantly better than Rs on this issue but now I actually think Dems might be worse (or are at best equal).

I mean, it's in the Constitution. The Court didn't ask for proportionality in the congressional map.

This is reasonable and makes this case less egregious. Proportionality is an insane standard but follow-up: how was the horrendous gerrymander of the last decade allowed to stand if there was a proportionality standard?

The amendment was passed in 2018 by statewide vote, it wasn't retroactive to the current maps.

Part of the fair districts 2018 amendment, which must go before the voters so passing or repealing another would be hard. (though don't be surprised if another shows up in light of this messy process to implement a citizen commission) The 2010 maps were passed before that came before the voters obviously and therefore was exempt via grandfather rules. On a practical level, the court effectively only had the votes after 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

Pretty sure that map is illegal cause Columbus is split 3 ways, though that could be fixed p easily

Parts of the any city that cross borders are considered two or more localities for the purpose of redistricting, according to the rules of the road. And simmilarly, any city that is near to or larger than a CD simply needs to have a CD built around it, it need not only include parts of said city but can also include neighboring communities with likeminded views. Unless of course you are referring to the order of the court to make a meaningful attempt to include the non-Franklin portions of Columbus inside a second urban-suburban seat, which I'm sure they will say they did in Delaware.

[Oryxslayer]

Pretty sure that map is illegal cause Columbus is split 3 ways, though that could be fixed p easily

Parts of the any city that cross borders are considered two or more localities for the purpose of redistricting, according to the rules of the road. And simmilarly, any city that is near to or larger than a CD simply needs to have a CD built around it, it need not only include parts of said city but can also include neighboring communities with likeminded views. Unless of course you are referring to the order of the court to make a meaningful attempt to include the non-Franklin portions of Columbus inside a second urban-suburban seat, which I'm sure they will say they did in Delaware.

Ah thanks for the clarification. Columbus City lines really really get to my OCD (which I actually have).

These provisions are more relevant with legislative maps, since lower level seats are more likely to be equal to a locality. And while the city-separation clause makes sense with county preservation rules, it does shaft one community in particular:

[Oryxslayer]

Kaptur, 2 in NEOH, 2 in C'bus, and a cincy seat is a fine config imo. That wrap-around-Cleveland seat seems like a mess. Just try to make a safer Akron seat.

This would be the orientation of the GOP actually wanted to play ball and therefore protect what incumbents they can. Abandon the targeting of the 4 D seats, goodbye Chabot, the Columbus seats would be rotated so that its very junior Mike Carey with the short straw, and Gonzalez would see his seat get reapportioned cause he broke the party line. 9-6. But if they won't propose any maps, the result from those with authority will probably have more swing seats in the north.