Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

Wow, didn’t know the chamber was already that close

The chamber elected 79 Dems to 101 GOP in 2022. There was one high profile defection earlier this year, but that came from a uber-D urban Atlanta seat.

The Chamber itself is right now 97-83 Trump 2020. The GOP won 4 Biden seats. These were all intentional:

- HD-48 was made as GOP as possible to  successfully eliminate the north Fulton Dem incumbent, but it couldn't be made fully Trump leaning since they had to protect other incumbents and facilitate a gain in the next listed seat. It only flipped to them by 54-46.

- HD-53 is a Biden seat, but it was drawn as a snake to try and be as Republican as possible in North Fulton, while including parts of Buckhead. It was also drawn specifically to facilitate the return of Deborah Silcox who barely lost in 2020. But her comeback was only by 53-47.

- HD-99 is centered on Suwanee in Gwinnett. It was held by a member of the House Redistricting committee in 2022, but she retired, perhaps because she was unable to prevent the district from becoming more Dem-leaning. This is an area where the Dem electorate is growing, but it also struggles in off-years. 55-45 GOP in in 2022.

 - HD-154 in the SW was the successor to majority-AA HD-151, a consistently Dem seat that keeps electing the locally popular Gerald Greene, a former Dem who defected in 2010. But he's been serving for 40 years, is now 75, and nobody else can replicate his results.

The two additional Warnock runoff seats are HD-45 and 49, adjacent to each other in Northeast Cobb and North Fulton. Both were 51-49 for him, but also reelected their GOP incumbents by 59%. If Dems get the map changes in this opinion implemented, they will probably pour resources here.


The five districts that should seemingly be made into the 5 ordered majority-minority districts are: HD-64, HD-74, HD-117, HD-133, and HD-147. Most of these district's predecessors were in a larger group of seats that significantly shifting towards the Dems at the end of the decade, but the GOP redrew their lines in an attempt to turn back the clock. The one place they theoretically failed was HD-117, which still remained the tightest district in the chamber in 2022 by a 1.5% margin, despite the decrease in BVAP. This seat will probably flip in 2024 no matter the outcome of the order, but the other 4 will probably not without a redraw.

I will additionally note the Democrats probably have three frontline defenses: HD-105, HD-108, and HD-128. Any other unmentioned districts (including GOP HD-151) either have extreme RPV stabilizing their margins, or will see Dem margins go up in Presidential years. HD-128 was surprisingly left uncontested in 2022, and that failure may mean the GOP missed their chance at the seat. The required redraw of the Milledgeville region could take from 128, pushing the seat further east into the more Democratic Augusta. It something the plaintiffs fully intended when they sued the region. Those changes would push the seat off the battleground map.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1719758589877788890?t=B1W3WEdJ7tjaij6...

Status of state action. So the state legislative defendants,  as expected,  want to appeal for a hold from the 11th but have yet to do so.

[Oryxslayer]

Status of state action. So the state legislative defendants,  as expected,  want to appeal for a hold from the 11th but have yet to do so.

So this means redrawing the maps will proceed?

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1719853126260228225?t=S9POBNugoUC2qH0rpB4Jow&am...

All state Plaintiffs for now are seemingly deciding not to appeal for now.  So we should for the moment expect maps. This puts a hold on the cases with additional Racial Gerrymandering claims. The continued existence of these though serves as a potential handbrake for activists if the legislature tries anything suspicious, and as a further threat that the legislature could want to get defused by following this order.

The next question is if the legislature follows the orders just as far as necessary, to deny any additional unnecessary side effects,  or produces a product that de facto punts to the master and could lead to unforseen Dem seats.  And if they do follow the order, will more legislative districts be changed outside of the targeted regions,  to potentially reinforce the tighter margins, albeit potentially risking the court rejecting their maps.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess I'll mention DRA added GA 2022 election data today in preparation for the remap. But there are missing the crucial runoff data, which is when Warnock flipped legislative districts.

[Oryxslayer]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

yes, but to add, the LA ruling has no or almost no bearing on the GA case. One is under the authority of the 5th, the other the 11th. The only connecting thread is that Milligan and subsequent Supreme Court orders means that both are forced into a position they did not expect to be in, and can't easily wiggle out of.

[Oryxslayer]

Effortpost time:


The special session is called for ten days from now on November 29th to meet the deadline of December 8th.  It will likely be short based on past precedent, with maps already decided ahead of time.

The assumption right now is that the State GOP are actually complying with this order, unlike AL or LA, in light of the fact that there presently is no request for an emergency stay. This of course remains a big assumption, the actions could be a different delaying tactic or could create a product guaranteed to go to a master. But the basis for the assumption though is that Georgia Republicans fear letting a master have unchecked authority over Atlanta lines. A master would try for compactness first and could therefore easily ‘accidentally’ create more Democratic or competitive seats than ordered to.

Reminder, if they are to comply, then per the court’s order, existing majority-minority or access seats cannot be dismantled to create these new districts. That would de facto be a punt to the master. This applies not just to GA-07, but more importantly to the legislative remap. On all levels, Dems seats fall into one of the following categories: too diverse to be dismantled under these guidelines, majority-White but still diverse and necessary for packing Dem voters in key areas, or dominated by White Liberals but too far from the remapping areas to be made into the new access seats. Barring something too ugly to be accepted by the court under racial gerrymadering examination, it will be GOP-held seats transformed. But one wonders if the legislature will use this excuse to fortify their districts in non-specified areas and try to strengthen their electoral wall right in front of the finish line.

For all plaintiff maps proposed ahead, the following should be noted. Cooper’s maps – the colored ones – redrew the entire state to create appealing alternatives. Esselstyn’s maps – the green and grey ones – redrew as minimal as possible to limit disruptions. Therefore, his districts are uglier since he has less to work with. Additionally, the burdens of proof are different for the remapping process than in a courtroom. Plaintiffs must meet the 50% threshold (or prove beyond doubt that something lower works), meet Gingles, and qualify overall under the established ‘Senate Factors.’ The state meanwhile just has to avoid racial gerrymandering when drawing districts that beyond doubt can be proven to perform as access districts. The new congressional district for example could very likely not be 50% African American, since there are a lot of Hispanic residents around Marietta, but still would be found to perform under RPV.

State Senate

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Theoretically the least dangerous map for the GOP because the plaintiffs failed to win every one of their claims. With only two ordered districts, this would push the map to 31-25, or 30-26 under the 2022 runoff. That still would mean a majority GOP map even if the state lost the separate racial gerrymandering claims brought by the second (presently paused) lawsuit.

This is because the plaintiff parties both failed to convince the judge that an access seat was viable in the Eastern Black Belt. Both presented options (below) were deemed too bipolar between both the rural and urban electorates, and between the population concentration in cities at either end of the seat. A disheartening opinion, but one that will be accepted.





On the other hand, all four options below were accepted by the court as potential examples of remedial districts. Both identified SD17 as an obvious case (numbered 25 in Esselstyn), especially since it was racially gerrymandered in 2022 using Walton. The seat had previously trended into a majority-minority marginally Biden seat that the GOP only held by 2000 votes. They both then create a second seat in the west: Cooper using a renumbered SD16 and Clayton, Esselstyn using SD28 and South Fulton.

 

 

The judge in his order therefore targeted every South Suburb seat (10, 16, 17, 25, 28, 30, 34, 35, 43, and 44) as potential for a remap, not just one selection. Which offers some danger to the GOP if they let this go to a master. Hypothetically, a master could redraw the 2 new seats in west and center of the region using Clayton and Henry. But then also make SD35 more compact which would add a number of African American areas to SD28, pushing it unnecessarily (from the GOP’s perspective) in favor of Democrats.

The bigger issue for the GOP though is the specified south suburbs seats are all held by Senate Leadership. Brian Strickland, the most initially at risk in SD17, is Chair of the Judiciary Committee. He lives deep in Henry County, in a super-blue majority-AA McDonough precinct. Marty Harbin in SD16 is chair of the Oversight Committee. He lives just east of Tyrone in Fayette. Newman Senator Matt Brass, chairman of the powerful Rules Committee and in line for high leadership, is the SD28 incumbent. SD30, while technically just outside of the blast radius, is home to former Majority Leader Mike Dugan. The one exception to this is SD25’s incumbent Rick Williams, who just came to the Senate last year. However, he also has a long legislative career, just in the State House. He additionally is from Milledgeville, far from the remapping zone.

This would mean SD16 and SD17 are likely the ones to be redrawn, given the difficulty of drawing the incumbents into new seats. Especially since Matt Brass is likely the one with the biggest pull, and won't want a primary. The map below ensures that neither can challenge other powerful legislators in the primary, since they are placed inside the new access seats. Population has to be rotated through SD46 and Gwinnett cause of the changes made to SD17 in 2022 with Walton County.





Alternatively, if an incumbent is planning on relocating to the southern parts of their district, then it could be Rick Williams of 25 who gets axed. Of the two, it would probably be Strickland cause he had to know this was coming, and he would only have to move a few miles into southern Henry (like here) or Newton. Williams is a freshman, but he succeeded the Lt. Governor when he won the seat in 2022. That could save him when compared to the seemingly more important republicans to his north. Cutting him would however require tossing Milledgeville into Democratic SD26, and other changes to the belt seats to compensate for it.

State House

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Theoretically the most dangerous map for the GOP because of how many Biden and now Warnock seats they hold right now. Creating the five ordered access districts pushes the chamber into the margins. If they let it go to a master, then there will probably be more than five additional seats winnable for Democrats, a nightmare for the state GOP with the present state of the map. There is no way to get around the number five, because the small district size doesn’t allow for much creativity with gerrymandering. If there are to be unnecessary innovations to districts beyond the scope of the order, it will be here, in North Fulton and adjacent counties.

The plaintiffs did not win unilaterally on every district. Both groups of plaintiffs challenged the same group of four state house seats, with them diverging on the fifth target for a combined six seats between them. However, Alpha Phi Alpha represented by Cooper only won on a single district in South Atlanta. The Grant plaintiffs represented by Esselstyn won on four districts non-overlapping districts, for a combined total of five. In practice, this means little, since the legislature has no reason to follow the explicit lines of each master, just create a performing and sensible access seats in the specified regions. But it will matter when discussing specific circumstances of each region.


The district solely pursued by Esselstyn was HD64 in the Douglas region. The incumbent is Kimberly New, elected in 2022. Without allies, the freshman seems an easy cut. Two seats are basically required to go into Fulton to comply with the order, especially given incumbent residencies, which will require some unpacking in HD65. I personally like this arrangement though, cause HD66 understandably follows the highway and and there is only 1 uncompact seat rather than 2.





HD74 is the district Cooper won on but not Esselstyn. This is peculiar because the changes necessary to 74 have an unavoidable effect on HD117 in adjacent Henry County. Esselstyn’s HD117 is compact in Henry, when compared against Cooper’s, cause his HD74 is sprawling and uncompact. Esselstyn’s desire to minimize changes on surrounding districts hurts him here, because it forces uncompact changes to the few districts he can change. Either way, both districts must be redrawn now, so both master alternative maps offer value.



 

The incumbent in HD74 is Karen Mathiak, first elected to the chamber in 2016 for what was then HD73. She lives just north of Griffin and chairs the State Planning committee. There really is no alternative though to 74 getting remapped since Clayton must be unpacked, and hers is the only GOP seat bordering Clayton. Her prominence is not shared by Lauren Daniel in HD117. Daniel barely became a freshman in the closest GA legislative race of 2022. Despite the seat being drawn to stall a flip, Warnock would win the district and Democrats would be hypothetically targeting it next year even without a remap. Nobody should have qualms about drawing her out.

I estimate therefore that an attempt to save Mathiak will be made. HD74 will need to get shoved deep inside Clayton and other African American suburbs. This pushes the other Clayton seats out of the county and into Henry or Fayette. That will push HD117 out of Henry and necessitates Griffin to become the required access seat, like Cooper did in his map.

From here there are now two options: pair Mathiak with David Knight in HD134, or Beth Camp in HD135. both seem better to cut than Mathiak, but whom? Knight has been serving since 2004 but is presently a backbencher. Camp meanwhile is younger and just got elected in 2020. But she seems to be cultivated potential, already chairing the (lesser) Intragovernmental Coordination committee. Either way, the paired district more resembles the old HD74 more than its other predecessor. It is basically the same seat just with Hampton in Henry swapped for Pike County or the areas Southeast of Griffin. Mathiak would run against Camp in Pike, or Knight in the White corner of Griffin.






The press when describing the changes necessary south of Atlanta usually uses “two seats in the Macon region.” This obscures how Milledgeville is not Macon and the fate of the two seats is arguably different. However, given the court’s approval of Esselstyn’s map, it’s not too hard to see why one could think that Macon will need to get involved in the Milledgeville seat.



I will be very shocked if we see anything like Esselstyn’s map if the GOP is to draw a plan that complies with the court’s order in the region. The obvious reasons being the desire to maintain a hold on the wealthier Whiter parts of Macon and not give Democrats uncontested control over the Bibb County delegation in the State House. Additionally, Republican Dale Washburn lives in north Macon, and he would prefer not being unnecessarily axed. I think therefore it would be better to think of the seats separately, with one in Macon/Warner Robins, and one in Milledgeville.

HD147 is currently held by Bethany Ballard, first elected in 2022. The old HD147 trended towards the Democrats so hard that in 2020 Biden won the seat. It got radically redrawn but that didn’t stop the incumbent from retiring. So HD147 is the obvious cut, especially since every other Republican in the region has notable tenure. I think something like this using Twiggs to connect Warner Robins and Macon is more effective for the GOP than the straight north-south option seen in both master plans. This is because it allows for less Warner Robins and more of Democratic Macon to be used in the seat, more easily separates the GOP incumbents in the region, and allows them to retain more of their district cores. But both work.





It must be HD133 for the next access seat given the specification of Milledgeville in the order.  Incumbent Kenneth Vance just got elected in 2022, see SD25 for the seat’s former resident, so cutting him shouldn’t be too hard. The specification of 133 is absolutely something that the plaintiffs wanted to force on the state. Neighboring HD128 as currently drawn could have been won by the GOP in 2022 if they hadn’t failed to find a candidate. The fate of 128 becomes relevant if we eliminate the Macon option for 133. It all but forces 133 and the Milledgeville seat to look to the east and take African American areas from 128, forcing that seat to then be redrawn. From here on it is therefore beneficial to think of the two seats as paired.

If 133 is to be reoriented eastwards, all the Augusta seats will have to change via ripple effects. And to maintain the five existing African American access seats in the region while adding on one more presents really only two options: add Grovetown in Columbia to the grouping, or Dublin in Laurens. And it will be very hard to get away with the Dublin version, even if that is better for the GOP in HD128. Seven-term incumbent Matt Hatchett lives in Dublin, and he chairs Appropriations. The Dublin option is basically what Cooper tried:





And so, by eliminating alternatives based on incumbency, the Democrats find themselves likely to end up with a better HD128 then present. Diluting the district would invite in a master, to the north is 133, it can’t go south, and it can’t go west,. Which means HD128 has to go east into the Augusta region to get AA voters. That should always improve the performance of 128, even if it remains only marginally majority-minority. The version below is obviously very beneficial for Dems, but don’t count something like it out. Incumbent Mack Jackson is anti-Abortion, generally more moderate, and for some it wasn’t a surprise he failed to get an opponent in 2022.

Congress

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

The one map most people care about comes last because there is less to say. The Court has ordered the creation of a majority-minority access district in the western suburbs. They have additionally spelled out that dismantling other access districts to meet the order will not be acceptable.

We also know the GOP would be fools to disobey either parts of order and try to delay, in effect punting to a master under the current arrangements. With Cooper having drawn two acceptable versions of the access seat, the court considered the evidence for such a seat overwhelming. Looking at his maps, there are roughly 550K people in Northern Cobb and Fulton not in an access seat. Their present partisan allegiances are roughly tied. It would not be hard for a master to nest a seat in the region though presently-sunk adjacent and Democratic areas like Sandy Springs or John’s Creek. That would mean two presently safe GOP seats become winnable for Dems, not just one.

 

We already know the general shape of the new seat. We also probably know the new Dem representative will be McBath. She finally can go to a district that she lives in, opening the Gwinnett GA07.

We know the changes to GA-13 could very well lead to David Scott retiring or losing a primary. The 78-year-old Congressman lives outside the present district in Atlanta and has had underwhelming primary results recently. Adding in a bunch of new territory opens the door for a challenger.

We also know the axed congressman won’t be Barry Loudermilk unless he is retiring. The new access seat may end up bearing the number of his former district, but it won’t be the successor to his seat.
 
The big question for congress therefore is what happens to the other Atlanta area GOP Representatives? One of them has to be cut, but who? Rich McCormick has the least tenure under his belt, has no ties to the legislative GOP, and is sitting in a district that was gerrymandered into existence. Removing McCormick is the ‘default’ option, as we can see below in a map that focuses on changing district cores the least.

 

McCormick however is the “right” type of congressman for the Georgia GOP right now, especially when compared to the other options. MTG is MTG obviously, and destroying her seat would be an attempt to quash two birds with one stone. It’s not like the state hasn’t carved up the Northwest before, see the map from 2006 to 2010. Clyde on the other hand aligned himself with the rebels of this congressional term, and lives far from the current district. Cutting him would be a form of retribution that MTG unintentionally avoided by cozying up to McCarthy. Both would in theory be better to axe politically, but whether the legislature actually can successfully do it through the remap remains an open question. There is always the chance that the primary does not go they way the legislature intends…

 

 

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia has appealed the court's decision, as they said they would. There is no request for an emergency stay or examination of the case, as the state additionally said it would. This is despite the fact that Georgia hypothetically would have had cover by the 8th's recent decision to attempt at a strategy change.

Five days until the Special Session, and not much longer after that until a Master gets ordered if there is no adequate remedy. Unless this is a new attempt at a delaying tactic, everything is still proceeding as expected. No public maps yet.


Also today, we had a ruling from the 11th that upheld the method of electing PSC members statewide. This is an instance of trial length and circumstantial evidence working against the minority plaintiffs who wanted districts, since one of the main parts of the ruling is that minority candidates are increasingly getting large shares of the vote and/or winning statewide.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate will supposedly begin releasing maps today. So we'll be able to see if the GOP has any intention of complying,  or is willing to risk it all with a master.

[Oryxslayer]

So this would be a punt. Not cause its Dem getting drawn out. Rather cause they are defying the court order on where (10, 16, 17, 25, 28, 30, 34, 35, 43, and 44 is the ordered area) how and why to create the districts. In doing so racial gerrymandering (the crucial point) the region to try and make it the some Dem seats that go away. As usual, people will defend it right up until judicial review says nah.

They probably feel like they can get away punting to a master cause it's only two districts and potentially another that gets weakened through cascading changes, not a bunch that could through the chamber to tossup. And they would try to do this for probably a simple reason:

The bigger issue for the GOP though is the specified south suburbs seats are all held by Senate Leadership. Brian Strickland, the most initially at risk in SD17, is Chair of the Judiciary Committee. He lives deep in Henry County, in a super-blue majority-AA McDonough precinct. Marty Harbin in SD16 is chair of the Oversight Committee. He lives just east of Tyrone in Fayette. Newman Senator Matt Brass, chairman of the powerful Rules Committee and in line for high leadership, is the SD28 incumbent. SD30, while technically just outside of the blast radius, is home to former Majority Leader Mike Dugan.  

[Oryxslayer]

The biggest danger to the GOP in the senate under a master map, and one they perhaps may not foresee right now, is the unification of Athens. Special masters generally try to make sensible choices regarding COIs, while minimizing overall disruptions. This would likely lead to a reunification of Walton and the master making changes to the 45/46/47 area around Athens. If they reunite the county, it doesn't matter what neighboring areas the county is paired with, say Madison and parts of Jackson like right now. The seats going to be marginal at worst for Dems. And that would theoretically give Dems a path to a tied chamber that would not exist if they didn't try to pass a racial gerrymander past court scrutiny.

[Oryxslayer]

Now I want to see if they are going to try to sell State House and Congressional snake oil to the court and plaintiffs. Cause unlike the Senate, the electoral Sword of Damocles on both those maps is very much known and visible. As I tried to elaborate in the effortpost, on those two maps defying has a high making things even worse for the GOP than the initially expected outcomes: one cause the small size of the districts means even minute changes for compactness can push district partisanship unintentionally, the other cause restoring compactness to the Atlanta region likely leads to a competitive semi-successor to the old GA-06 in addition to the ordered western district.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1729600472883863613?t=RDWwrg1tJEcuBMvb9...

State House map dropped.  Gonna need more data than just this inage to see if it's likely to last.

[Oryxslayer]

DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1cd4d3d0-fdbb-4cad-aa3d-a44aa660081b

So this one's much more of a mixed bag when compared to the State Senate. Which makes it difficult to say whether the map will be accepted in part or deemed unacceptable for failing to comply with the order in full.

The Macon region has two new majority-African American access seats. The State GOP somehow found a way to go for the Macon Esselstyn option rather than looking east to 128, likely because there's a retirement we don't know about yet. Also cause they decided to include A chunk of Monroe in one of the districts. Not every seat is created equal here, and it does a few of the things the court found offensive about Cooper's exploratory map, but there are the ordered changes.

In regards to the three Atlanta seats ordered, the State House pulls the same tricks as the state senate by renumbering districts to make changes to Dem areas outside of the scope of the order. These being mainly District 40 in Cobb and some others in north DeKalb.

Racial gerrymandering that a court review would disapprove of is needed to make said changes. This includes like making the DeKalb and Fulton districts even more uncompact and analogous to tentacles previous GA courts have disfavored, similar to yesterdays senate plan. But it also includes a split of Griffin, a bleaching of the GOP Henry and Douglas seats specifically cited in the order, some headscratcher decisions in Newton, and a reshuffling of the Gwinnett seats. This includes racially sorting the Gwinnett region so that the GOP could add Whites to the marginal 105 and 108. But no changes to the northern suburbs where the majority could be lost.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1730299652287635461?t=2X74KBcLnQ_fyC3aI...

As usual,  never believe political games can survive the scrutiny,  cause legal relief isn't supposed to be political. It's this disconnect that requires so many special master maps.


Also, the fact there isn't a congressional map even on the site yet suggests one of 3 things. Either its something that blatantly violates the order and won't last long, one of the controversial Republicans with a loud fanbase is getting cut and they want to dodge their outrage,  or there just won't be a congressional map. It wouldn't be the first time the GA legislature gavels out without a court ordered map.

[Oryxslayer]

Surprised they chose to violate the orders details when the dangers of letting a master remap the Atlanta region are well known.  I guess now though we get to see if something like the old GA-06 built out of mainly North Cobb and Fulton  comes back, in addition to the western seat.

[Oryxslayer]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

[Oryxslayer]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

We don't know what the court will do or almost as importantly when they will do it. It might seem clear to us but when it comes down to it nobody here really knows. I'm no lawyer but to me it seems there is a relatively good chance any final resolution gets kicked past the 2024 elections and this map has at least some chance of being in effect for this cycle.

Resolution certainly could get kicked back if the state changes it's tune, but they really have no time. The emergency stay they have yet to ask for would have to suddenly emerge and be granted despite all developments in the last month. This congressional map will be passed next week to meet the December 8th deadline. We don't know how scheduling will go, but its seems possible with dates that the master is working while government is on holiday. This court doesn't want anything it disapproves of to be used in 2024, so it would have to be an 11th intervention.

The Georgia defendants may have a plan for what happens after the session to further stall, but we will have to see. Perhaps a Purcell appeal after the court examination of the maps. Their position right now is not good. For reference, these are the relevant parts found at the end of the order pertaining specifically to the current congressional situation. The legislative issues are more scattered:

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

Can they argue that the other seats have to roughly maintain their current partisanship? Or is that a partisan gerrymandering case that’s not covered at the federal level?

Partisanship should really play a secondary role to demographic data during these remaps, which is why courts don't look favorably on political games, like on how every map the GOP tries to dodge the order through renumbering.

The main thing though with the mapping process here is that the officially nonpartisan Federal Courts (its different in the more closely partisan State Courts) don't want to have to do this multiple times. That's why I keep banging the drum of Racial gerrymandering, and it's why the order includes provisions limiting the remap area and concerning other majority-minority seats. There is literally another case that should have gone to trial last month on many of the same districts as this one, just also with additional racial gerrymandering claims. The only reason why it didn't is cause the remapping process necessitates a hold.

The court doesn't want to sign off on a product that will expand that case and just lead to the same areas being challenged once more. If anything, they want the relief to de facto resolve that case and lead to its resolution. Now the case probably won't be dropped cause it's a multiracial coalition and there are a handful of challenged districts, under different arguments, beyond the scope of this order in areas that are beyond the orders reach. But it should be tailored down, not expanded.


That's arguably why the plaintiffs rebuttal will probably lead to master maps on all levels, but especially the congressional map where the racial gerrymandering is so blatant. The only way it gets used is if things are somehow stalled in a way that is not yet apparent.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like Clyde is the Republican who gets the short stick in the Dem map.

FYI, this map is basically the exact same as the plaintiff's initial demonstrative map from the court hearings. The reason for choosing this route should be obvious, I hope.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1732194086285684928?t=oFSB9rwh9xY7EYS7wydYfw&am...

No potential hearing before the holiday vacations and recesses is a mistake IMO.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1732194086285684928?t=oFSB9rwh9xY7EYS7wydYfw&am...

No potential hearing before the holiday vacations and recesses is a mistake IMO.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1732467882859086160?t=czTiDc9pGiCE6ZYREa1O_A&am...

District court is doing the right thing here and not letting time slip away. This schedule could get us the holiday master period.

[Oryxslayer]

Judge Jones had the scheduled hearing on whether to give the legislatures maps the okay. An order on the next steps is expected quickly.

[Oryxslayer]

A thought- might Drew Ferguson's retirement tempt the Georgia GOP to redraw the congressional map in a way that eliminates the 3rd district, rather than risking the court drawing out a district with an incumbent?

Their time has passed, it's either their maps from the first week of December, or commissioner.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1740427502588399732?t=Ge5xOIkpo6sQ9Vd19klMog&am...

Jones IMO just kicked the can, which is what the GOP wanted. All the same districts from this case are also in the consolidated NAACP and Common Clause case, alongside their racial gerrymandering claims. Which is why I personally find the overall ruling rather shocking,  cause that case is just going to balloon with evidence and additional charges given the new maps, and was going to trial in November before this ruling paused action. Next year we're gonna be right back here costing the courts and state more money and time. When this is all known in advance,  courts rarely if ever want to set the stage for reiterating the case,  but that's whats going to happen.

[Oryxslayer]

Weren't several judges on SCOTUS flirting with a test to see whether there was a way to draw additional minority seats without altering the partisan balance as an affirmative obligation for courts in VRA cases?

I think Kavanaugh was going to be uneasy with a federal judge basically trying to draw GA Democrats into a majority under the guise of the VRA and rejecting these maps would be Jones pushing his luck

Nah. But there is a separate supreme court issue.

In between the order which stipulated no cut up of performing minority coalition seats, and the hearing in December on the new maps, we had action in the 5th in a separate case. They affirmed with long-standing precedent that if proven an alignment of interests on all electoral fronts beyond reasonable doubt, aka a fairly high RPV benchmark that really only gets met once an area is safely Dem, there needs to be an access district.  This is related to Galvestons County Commissioners. But the county protested, and the full 5th is agreeing to a rehearing, and given that this is the full 5th, it's reversal will likely go up to the Supreme court next year.