CA-House 2020/2022: Candidates, redistricting, retirements (user search)
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  CA-House 2020/2022: Candidates, redistricting, retirements (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-House 2020/2022: Candidates, redistricting, retirements  (Read 669 times)
Oryxslayer
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Posts: 11,067


« on: March 08, 2019, 02:50:20 PM »

Rohrebacher comeback is just conceding the seat to the Dems.
Baugh would work, but he is out.
Ngyuen is similar to Kim in the 39th, an out of power former minority GOP state legislator. I don't see why her fate won't be similar to Kim's
Allen has name recognition but being that close to Trump is a 30 pound anchor in this seat. When state legislators are threatening to cross the isle if you win control of the party, there is something wrong.
There's also significant pressure to keep GOP incumbents in their state house/senate seats if possible around here, since any open seat probably ends up a D flip. Is a peculiar position for orange county, you lack quality recruits and everyone else required a trade-off in one way or another.
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Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,067


« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2019, 03:12:24 PM »

Rohrebacher comeback is just conceding the seat to the Dems.
Baugh would work, but he is out.
Ngyuen is similar to Kim in the 39th, an out of power former minority GOP state legislator. I don't see why her fate won't be similar to Kim's
Allen has name recognition but being that close to Trump is a 30 pound anchor in this seat. When state legislators are threatening to cross the isle if you win control of the party, there is something wrong.
There's also significant pressure to keep GOP incumbents in their state house/senate seats if possible around here, since any open seat probably ends up a D flip. Is a peculiar position for orange county, you lack quality recruits and everyone else required a trade-off in one way or another.
CA-48 is more GOP than CA-39. What about Steve Jones, a moderate who is currently in power?

CA-48 is more republican than CA-39, but it is A: less Vietnamese (so less voters to swing hard right for ngyuen than Kim in 39) and B: Rouda is infinitly better then Cisneros.

I have no idea who Steve Jones is - do you mean the mayor of Garden Grove? If so, you got the problem that the contituency he represents is almost entirely outside the district. Not good for a moderate who needs to get past people further right in Top 2. So once again, there are problems with his candidacy.  
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