Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Oryxslayer]

The thing about Biden's VP is that I consider there to be close to a 50% chance said VP assumes executive power during his hypothetical presidency. Biden's age is going to come in hard against him when he takes on the most stressful job in the nation. The list of potentials are numerous: death, resignation because of incapability, a figurehead govt with empowered cabinet portfolios, or he may resign to give the VP incumbency going into 2024. This makes VP selection all the more important since democrats are actually going to need to visualize said person taking the oath of office. Outside picks therefore are even more risky than ever, and selecting a governor with executive experience may not be the worst decision.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1253644839914287105

More people hyping up Abrams for some reason...

[Oryxslayer]

Biden isnt picking Val Demings since she isnt a Senator and Harris isnt that great of a pick, the same people like President Johnson who didnt want her as Prez are lobbying her to be picked as Veep.  Its gonna be Warren

Why do you keep saying it's destined to be Warren. What indication is there that it will be Warren.

In the heat of the BLM movement right now, I don't know how and old white guy that's running as a democrat just picks and an old white woman as his VEEP.

Not to mention he and Harris are more in line in policy, something that he has stated is very important to him. Also, She has been great in joint fundraising with him

Didnt you read my post, Hilary ran in 2016 and she is just as old as Warren. HILARY likes to say hi. And Biden said he would pick Warren in 2016 if he ran for Prez

I know HILARY is as old as Warren. That's literally my point. Joe Biden is the oldest nominee ever and needs to add youth to the ticket.

Biden said he would like to pick Warren but that was a very long time ago and way before the Floyd protests

Biden doesn't need to add youth to the ticket to energize the youth. He needs to pick someone younger because there is a good chance Biden will not be running in 2024 in the event he wins in 2020. He's old, and the office is immensely stressful. It doesn't need to be death, it just has to be humility to recognize that your capabilities are weakening. IF Biden isn't running for reelection, he ideally would want to retire sometime during the first term, so as to give his VP some achievements and policies to run on when they try for reelection.

All this means that Biden wants someone younger, but not exactly young. In fact throughout this entire process Biden has seemed to be looking for someone who thinks like him, or at least has a similar sense of understanding. This is likely because of the scenario outlined above, and Biden wants to ensure succession is smooth and trustworthy.

[Oryxslayer]

So, spoiler alert: turns out Klobuchars statement was 100% planned.

https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1273965231182667778?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Are there any articles, instances, or historical moments where Duckworth and Biden visibly cooperated or achieved things together? Theres plenty about Kamala and Biden from this cycle, and Demmings was too local of a candidate for her and Biden to really overlap until now. This isn't an attack, I'm more curious since both have had long careers. For instance Duckworth spoke at the 2008 DNC and was part of the Illinois cadre Obama depended on even before she got a district drawn for her. Her time in the House then overlaps with Biden being president of the senate, and Duckworth was recruited to run at a time when Biden presided and potentially was still potentially making moves for a 2016 run (she entered IL-Sen in March 2015).

Why I ask this is because Biden's relationship with his VP and their ability to think on the same wavelength is a characteristic just as important as what they bring to the ticket. It may not be a coin-toss, but there is a comparatively high chance Biden will end up passing the reigns to the first female president sometime during his potential stint in office, and that person needs to be able to pick up the reigns and keep working with most of the Biden team.

[Oryxslayer]

Speaking of Kamala, she had a good moment on the Senate floor today when it came to police reform and Cornyn.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the reason Bass is now being talked about is because people are being to recognize that Warren is the underdog when compared to Harris or other minority candidates.  Therefore, there's a certain group who are now pushing what they see as a somewhat younger and African American Warren.

[Oryxslayer]

Fun facts! If picked, Harris will neither be the first female vice presidential nominee - Farrero ('84), Palin ('08) - nor even the first non-white one - Curtis ('28), Lieberman* ('00)!

* Lieberman is white

Go thing you edited this, or else I would call you out for an antisemitic dog-whistle, even though I don't like Lieberman as a politician.

I think it's telling though that Biden is looking to pick a female VP to appeal to his average voter, whereas Farrero and Palin were selected to add a jolt of uniqueness to struggling tickets. Times change.

[Oryxslayer]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

Biden's advanced age is seen as a weakness not just demographically, there are also the physical limitations of the office. I think there is a good chance Biden ends up not finishing his term. He either will succumb to the stresses of office, resign before the stresses get to him and go out being remembered as a calm interlude between polarizing storms, or he desires to empower the first female Pres and give her some time in office before running for reelection. Handing the keys over to the first woman would not just do wonders for his legacy, it also probably ends any serious discussion of "creepy uncle Joe" when people sit down to write about his legacy. For all these reasons, Biden wants someone who is young enough for potentially (but unlikely) a decade of work in the executive branch in some capacity.

[Oryxslayer]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

Biden's advanced age is seen as a weakness not just demographically, there are also the physical limitations of the office. I think there is a good chance Biden ends up not finishing his term. He either will succumb to the stresses of office, resign before the stresses get to him and go out being remembered as a calm interlude between polarizing storms, or he desires to empower the first female Pres and give her some time in office before running for reelection. Handing the keys over to the first woman would not just do wonders for his legacy, it also probably ends any serious discussion of "creepy uncle Joe" when people sit down to write about his legacy. For all these reasons, Biden wants someone who is young enough for potentially (but unlikely) a decade of work in the executive branch in some capacity.

This whole post is a bunch of malarkey. Biden is by all indications in good health, and will finish his full term. Furthermore, all of the reasons that you gave for Biden potentially stepping down midterm would have effects opposite of what you describe-- if he steps down mid-term he will be remembered primarily as an old guy who wasn't up for the job and little else, if he resigns to give his female VP incumbency it will just be used to say she didn't earn it similar to how Hillary was attacked in 2016 and finally, the only people who seriously believe the "creepy Joe" narratives are his staunchest opponents, not the people who will set the narrative for his life in the history books.

Yes, Biden is in excellent health. Yes, the white house should have the best doctors in the nation (parochial appoints only possible exception) so there is less chance of random health scares. HOWEVER, and this is the big one, you are kidding yourself if you think the executive office of a superpower doesn't tax one's psyche. It is quite possibly one of the most stressing jobs ever, maybe only behind things like suicide/911 call respondents. As an example, Obama's hair grayed while in office despite his young age. Biden is 77, 78 before the year ends. There is a reason people usually his age are in Florida away from sudden stressors and eating foods their doctor recommends. If you put the two and two together it's not hard to imagine Biden dying in office. Not anywhere close to likely, but it is an outcome somewhere on the bell curve. I have been saying this over and over in this thread, but every credible report suggests that Biden is treating the fact that he has a non-zero chance of finishing his term seriously, and seeking a candidate who will work well with his style, his entourage of appointments, and his general way of viewing the world. Everyone knows this, which is why we have personality and worldview puff pieces getting put out alongside the normal demographic and party-unification based ones.

Try and follow my thinking here. Biden most likely will survive 4 years in office if elected. If Biden was to be reelected he would be 82. As a person he would be feeling far more years on his shoulders than the average person age 82. To get to that point he would have to survive reelection which is a trial of its own, and his VP at this point would actually be seen as a president in waiting and get the attacks and media coverage entitled to such a position. No, its far more likely in my eyes that Biden, if elected, does not run for reelection. If you expect Biden not to run for reelection, you then need to consider democratic prospects, which will certainly be on his mind. Wouldn't it be better to have an incumbent president with policies of their own to run on than a competitive primary with everyone having to orient themselves around policies they have had little to no influence over? Wouldn't he want to avoid explaining to the nation and his politicos why he is not doing what is normal? Wouldn't everyone want to avoid the shadow of 1968 and LBJ's actions (something that continues to loom over everything inside the Democratic Party, whether we ignore it or acknowledge it)? It therefore makes sense for Biden to hand over the reigns, especially if he trusts and thinks of his VP as a fellow traveler on the road he once walked before.

I see it as a coin toss that Biden will not finish his term, most likely citing personal reasons. The only potential VP that is really disfavored by their age is Warren, who seems to have fallen off for numerous other reasons described on past pages. I'm not pulling for anyone in particular here, I'm pulling for everyone to recognize that demographics and optics aren't the only thing going on, despite them usually being the biggest drivers for VP selection. Character, personality, temperament, leadership experience, and Biden's personal congruence with said individual are all important factors that everyone needs to recognize matter this time - because Biden's team certainly does.

[Oryxslayer]

Call me a concern troll all you want, but I have a bad feeling about whoever Biden's running mate is going to be. They'll instantly become a lightning rod for the Trump campaign, and it'll work. Their attacks against her will stick, far better than they do against Teflon Joe, of that I am certain. Very soon, Trump won't be running against Biden - he'll be running against Harris. Or Warren. Or some other woman. And it could, potentially, galvanize his supporters in a really nasty way.

There's very little Biden can do to mitigate that, however. He's been running an incredible one-person campaign so far. There's a huge amount of risk to be expected when the other half of the ticket is finally revealed. And who knows how it'll all shake out in the end.

I'm sure on some level they know this, which is why the VP is going to be announced in August, when early votes are starting to get mailed out in certain states. The longer it could be potentially just Biden, the better.

[Oryxslayer]

Can we have this discussion elsewhere? This thread is supposed to be for news and I feel like the last several pages of this thread is just arguing about the merits of different candidates ad nauseam.

There are also merits in containing all VP discussion, their merits, their drawbacks, and their news, to this thread.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I get the feeling that she is trying to outflank Harris on the BLM front here, but flubbed it like dave mentioned because of a lack connectivity between her and the desires of those on the ground.

[Oryxslayer]

The Nation article pushing Barbara Lee. Lee would combine the pros of the current main candidates...except she fails the age test by 10 years or more.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1285353706242879488?s=20

Has to be Bass, right? Maybe KLB?

[Oryxslayer]

Demmings really disappeared from the conversation during the last couple of weeks.

That's because there has developed a 'one or the other' narrative regarding the two, despite both candidates attempts to break the narrative an establish unique brands. When Harris's stock falls, Demmings's rises and vice versa.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/david_darmofal/status/1285738385445920769?s=20

Is this code for not Warren?

He knows Warren's "socialist" background would hurt his campaign, so another white male putting himself ahead of a woman possibly having a great opportunity. Classic neoliberalism.

I think it's more code for 'pick a AA women who can give me better turnout in the Belt and Charlotte' rather than any ideological opposition - he lacks the position to argue this point.

[Oryxslayer]

Where’s all this Karen Bass hate coming from? She’s more qualified than Demings and KLB, yet a lot of the posters pushing those 2 are tearing her down.

She's older than those two. In the end, age is a big negative to some people, especially if Biden is looking for a potential successor.

[Oryxslayer]

KLB would be very smart to aim for GA-GOV

Abrams is getting another shot at GA-GOV in 2022. KLB should go for GA-AG.

I think Abrams would be a great Senate pick. She'll definitely energize the down ballot selections voters.

Abrams would be a great Senate nominee, but she passed on those races this year, among other contests. Abrams wants the governors office, and nothing will dissuade her. Everyone in the GA democrats knows to stay out of her way.

[Oryxslayer]

Bernie bros are going to Bernie Bro.

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1286462426142187525

This is hilarious. The arrogance lmao

Ah yes. Because if there's one thing Harris supporters aren't, it's arrogant.

So Harris supporters are arrogant, while the Sanders fans claiming to be leading a transformative revolution (while being refuted by the voters - twice) are humble...

That awesome moment when you live in Scotland and go online to tell Americans they're arrogant for wanting healthcare.

1. I never mentioned healthcare, and was speaking more to the frustrating aspects of the Sanders fanbase, rather than any specific policy.

2. Please don't NHS-shame me. I am fully aware of my privilege. The NHS gave me extra time with three of my grandparents before they died from cancer, and protected our family from significant economic strain. Moreover, my aunt is receiving hospice care right now, from some of the most admirable people in the country. We are blessed, and I will never forget that.

However.

I'm a pragmatist. I believe that the best way to expand healthcare is to elect a democratic trifecta, and I believe Joe Biden had the best chance of uniting the party to pursue that outcome.

You can't go from the US model to the NHS overnight, not in a country with a system like the USA. Obviously it's not my place to tell you how to do it, but to imagine that you can just create a single-payer system in the space between 2020 and 2022 feels like a stretch.

Moderats to LBJ in 1964:

"You can't sign this civil rights bill overnight, not in a country like the USA. You can't just automatically create full civil rights between now and 1968."

Um, not comparable.

The Jim Crow laws of the South were mostly a social order/system. The current United States healthcare system is a major part of our country's ECONOMIC system.

You can't just simply overhaul that overnight. It has to be a gradual process.

And if anything Civil Rights was a slow process (maybe a bit too slow) that openly entered mainstream politics with the Civil Rights plank in 1948. The fact that the job is perpetually unfinished suggests that the battle for equality won't be complete for a long time.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/karaforcongress/status/1288851825546924033?s=20

Maybe nothing, maybe a portent of an alignment.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1289305803275399168

Shocking that people thought a candidate didn't have any skeletons, just because the public hadn't seen them yet. I guarantee you that all potential nominees have bad moments, it's just what happens when you serve in public office, it's just that those who have ran for president got theirs out early.  I trust the vetting team to do it's job, and Bass was probably out a while back for what she has lurking in the closet.

[Oryxslayer]

Hot take:

This selection is not very important at all with regards to this particular election, but very important for the future. Biden's VP is highly likely to be the 47th president of the USA.

This isn't a hot take. This is why the nomination process has ended up very contentious. Even in the event Biden loses, his VP choice will likely inherit a leading position in the party, a la Ryan in 2012.

[Oryxslayer]

It's really annoying (yet completely unsurprising) to see the pundits act as if Biden waiting is some "Dems in Disarray" narrative, when in fact the entire time it was always likely to be announced in the run-up to the convention

They have nothing else to talk about.

...by design. A candidate that is spending a lot of his time on the proverbial front porch can't impact the media cycle in the way (both positive and negative) an active campaign usually could. The team seems to have let the Veepstakes build in prominence and speculation to fill this void, since it's a contained discussion that won't usurp whatever trump is doing on a particular day to mishandle the crises.