PA State Legislature Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

It think that if the PA-10, PA-16, and PA-08 polls are anywhere close to accurate, then they suggest the bottom has completely fallen out of the PA republican campaign. Its a combination of local tragedy and Wagner/Barletta falling through their respective floors. And the fact that PA has virtually no early voting, so everyone will have experienced the most recent events. If so, then I wouldn't be surprised if PA dems blow right past the tossups and push deem into your lean Rep category to capture the chamber.

Bu all this is assumptions built without a quality Pennsylvania poll. Frankly, I doubt we get one before Tuesday.

[Oryxslayer]

Well what do I know, we go a F&M poll that had a GCB of D+15 and topline leads of 15 for Casey and 26 for Wolf. This definitely feels like a Pennsylvania backlash that will flip the State House.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the senate map!

Nice! I think it would help, particularly in SEPA, if you get one with only seats up for election labeled.

[Oryxslayer]

If the results hold where they are now, Democrats will net 9 seats. It was an okay night for them, but not the kind they were hoping for.

I'm wondering why this is is? Casey and Wolf had huge nights, and I would think the gains alone in the suburbs should've been enough? I mean, even places like PA-16 that weren't supposed to be competitive were competitive, so how did Dems not end up flipping enough? Bad lines?

Dems failed to hold some of their "ancestral" seats. A state house majority under the present lines always required Dems to hold some Trumpy turf, and Tuesday's results told a tale of polarization up and down the ticket.

[Oryxslayer]

Just recounted wins. Democrats appear to now be on track to net 10 seats in the House. Here's a pickup map I made.



Like was said earlier, Democrats failed to hold a couple ancestral Dem seats (such as district 71, in Johnstown), and fell flat in a few R-held ancestral Dem seats, like district 51.

I thought dems net 11 and are now at 93? Or did something change. Anyway, not a bad haul overall, the chamber was always a hard flip, but we are now in the position both chambers could flip easily next election if dems successfully hold everyone - a tall order.