If the Republican drops out this becomes a race, I could see him making an Orman-like agreement to caucus with the republicans on the off chance he gets elected so he can have a 1v1 race
The problem with this is that its kinda a Catch-22: Damned if he makes this agreement, damned if he doesn't. If he does, he effectively becomes "republican-lite" and drives away all those left-leaning voters who might have voted for him if he remained just a third party candidate. If he doesn't make this pact, he has no chance of winning.
The other thing about potential comparisons to Orman though is that Orman benefited from Kansas-unique backlash against Brownback, that drove dems to the polls and primed moderate republicans to vote against the R line. New Mexico in 2018 is getting primed for a Republican backlash against Martinez plus the general Dem lean of the environment. This means that in addition to the dilemma above, Johnson faces extraordinarily hard circumstances.
The only way the Johnson could make this competitive is if he agrees to caucus with the dems and the rep candidate drops out or becomes a non-factor - two things that are very hard to see happening together. So, what is Johnsons goal here? If its to simply keep the Libertarian party relevant and make the party money, then just running and producing a 50-25-25 split is preferable. If its to prove that the Libs have potential or are competitive, then pushing the Republican out and losing 60-40 is the better option.
