CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Oryxslayer]

It's crazy how dead of a month July is for primaries.  Only a few run-offs.

There's always Mexico if you need to sate your electoral appetite.

[Oryxslayer]

Politico has a results site for AL-02:

https://politico.com/election-results/2018/alabama/runoff/

[Oryxslayer]

NYT fixes their numbers. Wulfric got burned.

[Oryxslayer]

Abdul barely leading in Ann Arbor when he should be crushing it though. This is going to be a Whitmer-slide, unless Detroit goes against her.

[Oryxslayer]

Kobach and Brewer win the Wichita EV.

[Oryxslayer]

Brenda Jones winning the primary for MI-13 right now.

[Oryxslayer]

With reports of low turnout, there is probably a significant turnout gap between HI-01 and HI-02 because of the primary's there. Might boost Hanabusa if Honolulu is marginally voting more then the rest of the Islands.

[Oryxslayer]

1. It doesn't matter.
2. It's Hawaii.
3. However, Democrats are outvoting Republicans like 10 to 1.

Your first two points damage the legitimacy of the third.

[Oryxslayer]

60% already in in MN-05, and no one is even going to come close to Ilhan Omar

I would call <50% with a 15% gap worthy of this type of praise, but yes, Omar is going to win.

[Oryxslayer]

Hopefully there's a lot of Democratic vote outstanding in WI. As much as people say it doesn't matter, the GOP being at 56% of counted ballots thus far wouldn't be an optimistic final number for Democrats.

Yep, great news for Walker right now. Lean--->Likely R this November. So much for the tariffs helping the Dems here. WOW is delivering for the GOP as always.

I have bad news for you...check the vote totals again.

And minus Dane as well

[Oryxslayer]

HAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1029558706575495168

Goodnight, sweet prince.

To think Sabato moved the race from Lean D to Tossup because he entered lol.

They moved it back, lol:

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1029559048465723392

With this turnout and the quality of Johnson as a candidate (bad) likely D is probably where this race should be.

[Oryxslayer]

Graham is going to end up winning almost ALL the Republican counties and losing almost all the Dem ones, Lmao!!!

In a simmilar vein to what's happening in GA, it's better to have a nominee who goes for the soft voters if you expect the base to turn out.

[Oryxslayer]

State of IDC:

11, 13, 17, 20, 23, 31, 34, 38 and 53.

11: 52% Liu, 48% Avella* 81% in
13: 56% Ramos, 44% Peralta* 76% in
17: 61% Felder*, 39% Morris, 74% in
20: 56% Myrie, 44% Hamilton*, 77%
23: 67% Savino*, 21% Robinson, 79% in
31: 56% Jackson, 38% Alcantara*, 64% in
34: 51% Biaggi, 49% Klein*, 67% in
38: 60% Goldberg, 40% Carlucci* 2% in
53: 53% May, 47% Valesky*, 10% in

IDC*, Victor

Basically, they are all getting wreaked, even as the progressives die at the top of ticket.

[Oryxslayer]

Enten is expecting Biaggi to kick out Klien right now.

[Oryxslayer]

State of IDC:

11, 13, 17, 20, 23, 31, 34, 38 and 53.

11: 52% Liu, 48% Avella* 89% in
13: 57% Ramos, 43% Peralta* 84% in
17: 61% Felder*, 39% Morris, 86% in
20: 56% Myrie, 44% Hamilton*, 80%
23: 67% Savino*, 21% Robinson, 82% in
31: 58% Jackson, 37% Alcantara*, 89% in
34: 54% Biaggi, 46% Klein*, 84% in
38: 69% Goldberg, 31% Carlucci* 5% in
53:  53% Valesky*, 47% May, 15% in

IDC*, Victor
3 Progs over 1 IDC + Felder

[Oryxslayer]

Big Results drop and now Goldberg is down to Carlucci of the IDC. A little early there on the call again Wulfric.

[Oryxslayer]

How many IDC members are confirmed to have lost, 5?

Hamilton, Alcantara, Klein, and Peralta are confirmed gone. Avella is probably gone, and there are reports that Valesky is down as well. Only Savino currently has have held on (+Felder), and Carlucci currently has a small lead.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT declares Klein DOA.

[Oryxslayer]

Valesky lost

Which puts us at 6/8 Down, 1/8 surviving (and Felder OFC), and one undecided right now. All eyes turn towards Carlucci...

[Oryxslayer]

Something to keep in mind is that Cuomo for whatever reason believes that he can win the nomination  in 2020. It's why he has marched left at a break-neck pace. If the Republicans somehow maintain control in 2019, even after Dems gain the five or more expected seats in the senate, then it negatively affects Cuomo's 2020 bid. After all, the results tonight show that democrats are fine with moderates, but intolerant of traitors in the Trump era.

[Oryxslayer]

Something to keep in mind is that Cuomo for whatever reason believes that he can win the nomination  in 2020. It's why he has marched left at a break-neck pace. If the Republicans somehow maintain control in 2019, even after Dems gain the five or more expected seats in the senate, then it negatively affects Cuomo's 2020 bid. After all, the results tonight show that democrats are fine with moderates, but intolerant of traitors in the Trump era.

Please point to the moderates who won, because all I see is a Liberal AG, a moderate LG, and a suddenly super progressive Governor who wants to abolish ICE, and raised the minimum wage, and whatnot. The state party won at the top, not the moderates.

Oh and Cuomo is a obvious moderate who, as I said, has tacked left in preparation for a 2020 bid.