Colombian presidential election, June 17 2018

[Oryxslayer]

Who would high turnout benefit? I suspect low turnout benefits the machinists, but it isn't always obvious where the most lower-propensity voters would go.

[Oryxslayer]

VERY preliminary results 88/97,663 precincts/counts:

DUQUE - 47%
FAJARDO - 29.5%
PETRO - 16.5%
VARGAS LLERAS - 4%
DE LA CALLE - 1.5%

[Oryxslayer]

4,586/97,663 precincts/counts:

DUQUE - 42.67%
PETRO - 24.47%
FAJARDO - 20.67%
VARGAS LLERAS - 7.65%
 DE LA CALLE - 1.66%

These results are right now dominated by the Consulate vote, which is why Fajardo is high and Vargas Lleras is low

[Oryxslayer]

As I am said on my twitter live report, it looks like the machines really dropped the ball for Vargas Lleras.

[Oryxslayer]

I got a Colombian replying to my Twitter saying Fajardo basically controls who wins the runoff with his endorsement - I don't think this is true but is there anything right about this statement? I suspect the Opinion voters are just going to move to the left or the right depending on their own views.

And are there any rules for recounts in Colombia?

[Oryxslayer]

Petro doing really good with the afro-colombian vote.

Honestly I think these results open a new campaign, Petro did as expected but Fajardo did much better (and I think Duque performed badly), so this is an opportunity to Petro to reapproach his campaign. But I believe Duque is the favorite by far (90%).

Definitely agree. Pre-election, this was a Duque walk in the park. Post-election, there are now enough left-wing voters for Petro to win. However, if he is going to win over those types he is going to need to change his whole style, something that I doubt is possible.

Statistically, Pre-First Round was probably 99% Duque, 1% others. Post-First round, 90%-10% is definitely a good rating. If Fajardo made it in, then that number would be much closer to 50-50.

[Oryxslayer]

Who wins Bogotá in the runoff? It seems to lean slightly to the left of the country.

Bogota gave over 60% to Petro and Fajardo combined. This year it isn't slightly, though it previously has been marginally left. Easily Petro barring a massive dropoff in Fajardo turnout - something that isn't hard to see.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction for the runoff today:

55.2% Duque
44.8% Petro

Turnout: 56% (high ... for Colombian standards)

I think it will be closer to 60-40, but with something like 5% blank votes. My point of reference is the 2010 election, where blank votes were 3.40%, and the Liberal/Center-right Santos ended up dominating.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls are closed.

[Oryxslayer]

298/97,663

Duque: 5951 53.11%
Petro: 4809 42.92%
Blank: 444 3.96%

[Oryxslayer]

Petro right now is losing Cordoba!

[Oryxslayer]

Petro really got taken for a ride in his home Caribbean, he didn't match the traditional left margins there. Meanwhile he dominates in the traditionally swingy Bogata, and using the flawed national swing, would be would be winning Boyaca and Cundinamarca if he was ahead right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Petro really got taken for a ride in his home Caribbean, he didn't match the traditional left margins there. Meanwhile he dominates in the traditionally swingy Bogata, and using the flawed national swing, would be would be winning Boyaca and Cundinamarca if he was ahead right now.

Stop discussing Colombian elections as if it was a UK or US election. What are 'traditional left margins' in the Caribbean, considering Petro is the only left-wing candidate to have reached the runoff or performed as strongly in any election. National swings are not a thing in Colombia, for good reason. Bogotá has been to the left of the country since at least 2003.

You don't consider the various Liberals like Santos 'leftists?' Certainly not true leftists, but if Petro is the first leftist to make the runoff, the you should acknowledge the center of the spectrum lies to the right.

I hate national swings, they are stupid. But they occasionally have their uses.

Bogata has never been this far to the left in the runoff until now - or am I wrong?

Yes, the Caribbean is full of bought votes, but you would expect the others to be pulling hard for their home candidate.  

[Oryxslayer]

Perhaps the better term isn't leftist but Anti-Uribismo then. Petro's map certainly correlates more with Santos's 2014 one, when he was the anti-Uribismo candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, back to data, it looks like turnout will come close to matching the first round, presently 52.9%