Are we underestimating Dean Heller's chances of re-election?

[Oryxslayer]

There are two thing this article gets wrong: is Hellers middle road attitude, and Unions vs Reid Machine. The two big albatross's around Republican legislators in November are the Health Care bill, and Tax Reform. Heller voted for both of them. If we apply Cook Politicals congressional risk factors to Heller, they originally didn't do senate seats, then Heller hits all 5 non-monetary ones. Money levels are of course not comparable between house and senate seats. The second problem is Unions vs Reid. The article seems to think that Unions might have less incentive to show up due to policy issues. The problem with this is that it doesn't really matter concerning policy when Reid still wields influence in Clark and Rosen retains her ties to the Machine. Reid won't let his former house candidate out to dry. Perhaps as we get further from Reids retirement, the machine will crack. But not just two years.

Plus the likely gubernatorial Dem candidate is a Clark county officer, which will certainly motivate that county to turn up at the polls.