State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain to me why in 2010 there were so few special elections on the state level? Same holds for 2006, 2014, etc.

Why is this year so unusually packed with state level special elections?

Its #Metoo and movements like it. A bunch of retirees these past two years have been because of scandals (Particularly in states with long serving legislators like OK) and flips have historically happened much more easily when the voters are disgusted with the previous incumbent.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1087948417513504768

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1087949099729670150

Other Candidates Maps are enclosed in the tweets. The last time this seat was up:

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092970042717663232

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092976633517170689



Even though the Pub is up, note that the dem is winning precincts that Klobucher lost.

[Oryxslayer]

Do absentee/early votes get counted with precincts? or do they get dumped separately?

I'm just reposting from twitter so...shrug



https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092977634143862784

Anyway, it looks like most of the pub lead is coming from safe pub areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Here' s the map as of 9:51, Pub lead under 4% as of map.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, credit to @ActorAaronBooth for all these maps and tweets, can't claim them as my own.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092980068585037824

[Oryxslayer]

As of dem retaking the lead.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092982627085242374

[Oryxslayer]

Pub in the lead now.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092984017526366209

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092984935265243136

[Oryxslayer]

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1092988111955607553

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah the Dems down on Northam, but still easily winning this thing. Not hard to see why, what with the personal and statewide scandals.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah but I wonder if Lacombe is running as a conservaDem though. Because it makes no sense for Republicans to only be getting 26% of the vote in a district Trump got 59% in in the South. That doesn’t really make sense at all even if it has “ancestral Democrats” or whatever

He MUST run (and really be) as rather conservative Democrat if he wants to win. This is acestrally Democratic, but, at least - moderate conservative district, where only such Democrats have a chance. Two last legislators from it - former congressman Cazayoux (surely - right of center) and Thibaut (who was second conservative Democrat in state House after Danahay by most ratings, and real moderate conservative, with typical ratings about 60 from ACU, about 70 - from LABI, and 100 - from Louisiana "Right to Life"). So, no liberals here, pls! There are enough districts where they fit, but - not here. IMHO - it's one of, may be, three Louisiana districts (with 60th and 75th) most closely resembling (minus open racism, of course) "old Dixie districts".

P.S. i am more surprised by very poor results by Democrats in HD-62, and whether a "grand coalition" will be able to stop a leading Republican...

I don't think anyone knows who this indie will hypothetically caucus with yet, but the precinct results show him winning mostly Dem or Edwards -> Trump precincts. So one has to assume those are his voters. Check out @jmilescoleman, the Louisiana election twitter master for more information. 

[Oryxslayer]

State House 39: Urban New London
State House 99: East Haven

Senate 3/5/6: gerrymanders that grab ultra-blue inner Hartford Suburbs and then spiral out to more tossup suburbs. 6 actually is fully inner suburban with New Britain.

The only one the republicans have a chance at is 99.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls are about to close in Kentucky. Its a classic blue dog district - dems still hold some seats in the state house around here. However, the massive Trump PVI means it should be an easy lift for republicans, unless something is wrong. If dems hold the seat, it means Bevins approval is having an effect, or other local factors are still in the dems favor.

[Oryxslayer]

4th blue to red flip this year. Panic time?

Its a 30% Swing from clinton! aRE repUBlIcanS iN DIsArY?!?1

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1103097872969539586

[Oryxslayer]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

ME HD 124
MS HD 32
MS HD 71
MS HD 101
PA HD 114
PA HD 190
TN SD 32

Here's a little breakdown:

ME HD 124: A seat that takes Northern Bangor and Orino. Even when Clinton lost Penobscot, she still easily carried these towns. Recent elects of King and Mills confirmed that these places are still loyal to team Dem. Supposedly the Republicans have made a mistake with who they nominated here. However, the Pop per district is miniscule, so while this should be safe Dem, things can easily go awry.

MS: In MS, there are three types of Districts: White Republican, Black Democrat, and White Republican with a Democratic history. HD 32 and 71 are black seats, and HD 101 is a white seat. Everyone is on a nonpartisan ballot, so things might end up interesting, but don't expect districts to differ from their ethnic alligence.

PA HD114: A seat that takes much of northern and central Lakwanna county, but cleverly avoids Scranton herself. This was a Trump-Democrat seat until it became open, with Trump winning it 52-45. The seat however was carried by the statewide 2018 nominees, so there is still plenty of downballot juice for Dems here. Dems also hold more redder seats to the west purely off of their legacy of the past, so the PA dems do have some reason to rejoice. If the Democrats cannot hold this, then it is clear the national mood has shifted.

PA HD190: Black west Philadelphia seat. Not much interesting from the Two-Party perspective. Interestingly, there is a dude, Amen Brown, running under a 3rd party that bares his name for the seat.

TN SD32: The seat has all of Tipton county and then heads into Shelby to grab Memphis's White suburbs. While the Democrats did well in Memphis in 2018, advancing in many seats and capturing one, it was nowhere close to the Republican wipeout seen in Nashville. This reflects the segregated nature of Memphis which is more "Deep Southern" then the central or eastern parts the state. To this end, AA turnout in Memphis tends to plumit during the off season, represented by the fact that Dems only took control of the county local govt in 2018. So whatever hope the Dems have here should be thrown away, this seat is likely safe Republican.

[Oryxslayer]

TX HD-125 turnout:
https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1105606292331266048

Add this to 5228 early votes, total turnout is 8117 with an hour to go.

For context, the first round a month earlier had total turnout of 6127.

Well, the seat is safe democrat, so its nice to see high turnout (for a special) in a uncompetative race.

[Oryxslayer]

Strange how limo is focusing on the Hispanic Obama/Clinton/Beto seat rather then the more important Obama/trump seat. I wonder why...

[Oryxslayer]

Time for Dems to panic?

Depends on which state you care about.

I'm not going to panic about either Tennessee (dead for Dems) or Connecticut (distinctive issues).

Tennessee isn't even that surprising - as I noted earlier AA turnout plummets outside of November is Shelby for some reason. The dems only got control of the county govt in 2018 for example since elections are held off the general November cycle. So a safe R seat where most dems are AA is still safe. News at 11.

The real seats to focus on if you want to spread "Dems in Disarray" are MN and TX from this week. But Hispanics don't turnout in specials - see the Republican pickup in TX SD19, which while congruous mostly with TX-23 has a whole lot more South Bexar Barrios. So we have MN.