2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Oryxslayer]

Can we talk more about the fact that a political party needs to win by 6 + percentage points of the popular vote to even begin to think about wielding political power, and how any Republican can defend this as anything but a gross abrogation of a democratic system of government.

The national median house district before the Pennsylvania remap was R+3 (this might have changed post-PA) which means that democrats need a ballot advantage of 3 or more to overcome said seat. The big hump - which republicans  would also face if they were attacking a D majority, comes from incumbency advantage, and that is relative. In some cases, like FL-26 and MN-07 incumbency matters a whole lot. In others, like NH-01 and NV-04, it mattered very little. The average seems to be between 3-4 points, meaning that with the present map, Ds need a ballot advantage of 6-7, and Rs would need a ballot advantage of 0-1 to take control. Under a entirely fair map, both parties would probably need a 4 point lead to take control.

[Oryxslayer]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

Something else of course to be taken into account is that Morganelli is to the Lehigh Valley like Tim Holden used to be for Schuylkill. Insanely popular in his seat, but not to liked outside the region for his rightish views. I have a hard time seeing Moganelli loose.

[Oryxslayer]

GA and TN arent battleground states

The batch of states either have competitive governors races, or competitive senate races. So GA, TN, and NM all have a spot on the list.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1011640324836478976?s=21
Dominating.

muh tossup

Cook has it as lean D since the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

Monmouth says they are releasing a poll tommorow about NJ 11th. I think the dem leads by 4 points.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1011593630186917889

Only 5 points better than Hillary if true, which suggests a D+5 Generic...not enough for a majority.

Yeah, I think the GOP narrowly keeps the house.

Yep, Conor Lamb and Doug Jones are looking to be the exception than the rule. Especially with boring centrist women being nominated over qualified progressive men.

Lamb and Jones are extremely centrist, so I don't have any clue what you're going on about.

It's sarcasm.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is the TX-27 special election, which is already this Saturday, such a sleeper race ?

It's not all too Republican and the field is wide.

And no poll so far.

It's mainly rural and suburban Texas, so the republican base is strong. Meanwhile, the democratic base is small and mainly Hispanic, and Hispanics are currently having trouble turning out to vote in primaries. Maybe there is a rural swing like in SC-05 because of low turnout, but this part of Texas isn't exactly flexible.

[Oryxslayer]

D+7 GCB in Arizona? That's amazing.

Arizona is trending blue faster than any of us thought...

I'm going to blame 4 things. The teachers strike earlier hurt the republican image. The border issues right now energize the dems and hurts the republicans particularly hard here. The perception that the republican party has been taken over by crazies like Arpaio doesn't help in the Phoenix suburbs.

Finally, there is the fact that Sinema is now the face of the Arizona democratic party. And she is a great candidate with a moderate record that has a strong base in the key Phoenix suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember that AZ Senate still has a divided primary and that will depress R totals for any individual candidate before there's a winner.

Yes but not the gcb...