IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

I would imagine the pro-Pritzker argument is that he is the only candidate with the wealth to face Rauner and his candidacy will allow national Democrats to spend elsewhere.

This is arguably why Madigan has lined up behind him. In order to avoid putting all the legislative eggs in one basket, Madigan hopes Pritzker is for the self-fund arms race that is going to happen between the two millionaires. This allows him and the Illinois DP to focus their impressive hauls on regaining supermajorities. That way, even if Pritzker looses, Democratis still have full control of the state + Madigan gets to draw the maps once again in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-jb-pritzker-bahama-offshore-shell-company-20180313-story.html

I don't know if I could tell anyone to vote for Pritzker in the general and keep my conscience.

COME ON BISS RAUNER MARSHALL WRITEINS BECAUSE EVERYONE SUCKS

[Oryxslayer]

There are some anecdotal reports that Democratic turnout among early voters is significantly up in Downstate Illinois.
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2018-03-18/tom-kacich-democratic-early-voting-turnout-all-over.html

I'll post some maps tomorrow, but dems have a bunch of hidden southern primary strength in the Deep Downstate south around IL-12. Some of it is consistent voters, but a lot of it is probably ancestral Dems that are a common occurrence in this region across state line. For reference, dems barely lost Il-12 in the primary in 2014, despite only making up a third of the primary electorate.

[Oryxslayer]

God if Kennedy wins it will be hilarious to see him not just stumble through the general, but then watch him have to try and be Governor for the next 4 years.

I know Pritzker is spending millions, but I feel it could partly be because he's never held state office (or even any office), and his major selling point has been 'I'm rich, everyone in the state endorsed me''. I feel even if the stuff about  Blagojevich didn't come out he'd still be struggling because he really doesn't have anything to sell.

FWIW both Biss and Kennedy have gained troubling niches in the race- Kennedy seems to have done some work reaching out to the African-American community, and the anti-Rahm groups (A 2015 mayor v 2018 primary map would be interesting) and Biss has got the progressive groups around him. If there's a high turnout from newly engaged/political folks I feel they'd move to Biss.

Also I've always wondered how many old info 60+ primary voters who will vote for Kennedy based on being Bobby's son alone.

This is Pritzker's biggest selling point, the fact that he is a huge self-funder. Dem's probably won't need to drop any money on the gov race if he is their candidate, since it will be all Pritzker's money. That money can go to Illinois house/Senate races or other competitive governor races depending on the source.

This is the only reason why I am *tentatively* supporting him, since if every candidate is going to be a corrupt puppet of Madigan/sidelined republican, its best to get a candidate that gives the dems a positive externality. 

[Oryxslayer]

So here are my IL maps. For the purposes of this analysis, we will only discuss the gubernatorial primary, congressional primary analysis will be handled in its thread.

 First off, we see that the distribution of the primary electorate for both parties in 2016, the more comparable election, has a different map than the final one. The share of the electorate was mostly the same as the final result 59/41 D/R in November and 58.5/41.5 in March. However, the distribution was not. The Republican vote is stronger in the suburbs than in the final election, and the democrats have a bunch of soft voters in the deep south of downstate. This trend is still visible in the 2014 election where  dissatisfaction with Pat Quinn, a close R primary, and the building 2014 wave, all resulted in a 2:1 R vote advantage in a Safe D state. Rauner racked up huge margins in the collar counties, and the margins were well around 90% of the voters going R. Meanwhile, in the Quad Cities and the Deep south, dems didn't get blown out of the water and instead even won some solid R counties.

The geography of the gubernatorial primary is therefore different between the parties, but we already knew that. The Dem primary vote is incredibly Chicago centered, and the Rep vote is perhaps balanced between the Collars and Downstate.

The democratic party hasn't really broken down along regional lines, so we really don't know how the various regions will vote. Inside Cook, everything really makes sense with these lines: Pritzker getting the machine and endorsement types, Bliss those disaffected with said machine and progressives, Kennedy the AA voters and those that don't like the other two. Beyond Cook though it becomes more of a question. Biss will probably end up with the university areas like Jackson county,  and Kennedy probably wins the AA heavy areas outside Chicago like Champlain, St. Clair, and Alexander. The rest is unknown. The Collar counties one would assume to probably back Pritzker, but the dem electorate there is much more city-centered in places like Joliet, Aurora, and Elgin - rather than moderate suburban types. Biss does have a base in the north suburbs after all. In 2016, all of the Collar except Lake broke for Sanders. An IL poster is probably wanted here.

The Republican primary is much more simple. Rauner's base is the Collar, and he will probably loose much of downstate to Ives. The divide between Insider and Outsider has been hammered in this campaign, and the Republican base will no doubt divide itself along those lines. Rauner also probably picks up some of the suburbs in the south around places like Peoria, in a similar fashion to how Gillespie ended  up barely winning his primary in 2017. The comparison to Gillespie is even more relevant, since Ives has a base in suburban DuPage just like Stewart had a base in Prince William county. The big question here for Republican's is turnout, and whether the collar advantage is still as strong as it has in the past. If the Collar moderates are now voting in the Democratic primary rather than the republican one out of disgust with Trump and the Party, then Rauner has lost votes. If Downstate is unenthusiastic, then Ives has no chance.

[Oryxslayer]

Who is going to win the IL gov primaries?

better question what does everyone think will be the more exciting governors race: Republicans or Democrats? This could be because the race ends up close, or is an upset, or something like that.

[Oryxslayer]

Illinois voters, when faced with important choices, almost always choose the worst candidate.  Today will probably be the same.  The smart people are the ones fleeing the state!

So...Pritzker, Ives, Quinn, Lipinski? Not the worst lineup ever.

[Oryxslayer]

Go Ives, Pritzker, and Newman!!!

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is up: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/20/us/elections/results-illinois-primary-elections.html

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout update

[]https://www.twitter.com/cookcountyclerk/status/976178433180012546
[/tweet]

Thats good news. What about Chicago itself?

https://mobile.twitter.com/billjcameron/status/976165860980219904

I can't find any evidence of that statistic on Chicagovotes

Like, how can you even measure millennial turnout without an exit poll (none taken) or checking the voter roles?

[Oryxslayer]

I’m really skeptical Ives knocks out Rauner

Ive heard quite a few insiders in the Republican Party are very worried she could

Could be the expectation setting R's love to do, and D's love to fall for.

[Oryxslayer]

Family that I know of voted for Ives today (southeast). Rauner will still probably win but I think it will be very close!

I wouldn't be surprised if we get another VA, where the unexpectedly close D primary ends up as a snoozefest, but the R primary gets tight. But I could be wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls have now closed!

I'm saying Pritzker, Raoul, and Newman. I thought Rauner should have an easy time, but I'm now thinking he may be in for a nailbitter/loss.

[Oryxslayer]

Did I miss something, why has the general consensus changed to Ives winning? Poll last week was close but not crazy.

Reports of turnout issues for Rauner and worries from insiders with newer data that Ives might win, and that change research dropped hints Ives was ahead - despite their poor track record. General  consensus right now is a close race, and anyones game, though all we have is hunches.

[Oryxslayer]

Kane County early vote:

JB: 3351
kennedy: 2443
Biss: 2156

Rauner: 3359
Ives: 3012

Rauner need better margins in the collar region...

[Oryxslayer]

Holy sh*t. Rauner only leading Ives by 6 points in Kane county. http://electionresults.countyofkane.org/Contests.aspx?Id=19&P=78

Rauner's supposed to do best in Chicago + suburbs right?

Yeah but a lot of Kane is exurban.  If it's from east Kane, like St. Charles or Batavia, he should be winning by more.

Its early vote.

[Oryxslayer]

68 Lake precincts apparently, though in relation to Kane, its probs just the early vote misreported

2121 JB
1634 Kennedy
1568 Biss

1952 Rauner
1690 Ives

[Oryxslayer]

Raoul winning Lake, Quinn Kane. Harold winning them both easily on R side.

[Oryxslayer]

The only way Ives wins the general is if something horrible comes out about pritzker

Thats happening right now, but IL is desensitized to corruption.

[Oryxslayer]

Champaign in early

Biss 3013
JB 2001
Kennedy 1018

2152 Rauner
144 Ives

Champaign is an oddity downstate, and probably doesn't reflect the whole region.

[Oryxslayer]

More of Lake is coming in and rauner isn't pulling away.

[Oryxslayer]

DeKalb early

JB: 596
Biss : 466
Kennedy 271

Rauner: 500
Ives: 346

[Oryxslayer]

Peoria early:

JB: 955 55%
Biss: 386 22%
Kennedy: 312 18%

Rauner 518 61%
Ives 329 39%

[Oryxslayer]

IVES WINNING COOK 156 PRECINCTS

[Oryxslayer]

Cook is big - 156 precicts

13,960 JB 48.5%
7358 Kennedy 25.6%
6219 Biss 21.6%

1198 IVES
112 Rauner