Biden's campaign strongest since Obama 08? (user search)
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  Biden's campaign strongest since Obama 08? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Biden's campaign strongest since Obama 08?  (Read 1591 times)
dw93
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« on: May 21, 2020, 09:12:21 PM »

No. Obama's 2012 campaign structurally was the strongest campaign since Bill Clinton at minimum, with a combination of powerful, consistent messaging and mass mobilization. Even his 2008 campaign doesn't compare to the sheer power his re-election campaign brought to the table given real-world circumstances and the overcoming of very strong trends that historically would have led to his defeat; his '08 campaign did in fact have greater mobilization of voters and a better electoral performance, but was fueled mostly by the collapse of the GOP and an abstract "change" narrative.

Biden is - as he has been throughout all of this - riding on his name alone and the fact that he's currently immune from being immersed in many of the unscripted, uncontrollable events that highlight his gaffe-prone nature, his alleged mental health and other negative characteristics. His campaign is still hollow, bare-bones and minimalist in terms of any of the traditional metrics by which campaigns are judged at this point in the cycle. And before anybody wants to yell "corona!", remember that all of these factors were present in his campaign well before this pandemic.
I don't know how you can really say that he is only "immune" to this because of limited exposure due to the pandemic when he won the primary easily (at least post-SC) with these "negative characteristics" still very much on display.

The Democratic primary electorate and the American GE electorate aren't anywhere close to being identical; a majority of the party is now fundamentally conditioned to support whomever's "turn" it's considered to be and/or defer to whomever's name they recognize most (in contrast to the country, which loves "change"). Biden won in spite of his problems (like Clinton), but what allowed him to win the nomination is not indicative of having a strong GE campaign.

He basically won the primary the same way McCain did in 2008, he collapsed in polls (for McCain it was in the summer/fall of 2007) and then he put all his chips in one basket. If McCain lost in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Florida in 2008 it would have given the nomination a-way more serious fight for Romney, the Huckster, among others. In 2008 McCain wasn't able to pivot to the general election, while we've seen the opposite from Biden so far, in that Biden is raising lots of money, he is running good ads.

I think Biden's primary victory was similar to Bill Clinton's in 1992 to be honest.
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