If the non-incumbent winner didn’t run (post WWII)

[dw93]

1952: Robert Taft: Democrats were doomed no matter what that year, Taft would win but he'd do worse than Ike.

1960: Honest to God Toss Up: It all depends on who the Democrats nominate in a JFKless 1960. As it was, Nixon had a chance to win and if the Democrats nominate someone worse, Nixon wins. LBJ or Symington could pull it off, but it'd be close.

1968: Again Toss Up: Depends on who the GOP nominates. If it's Reagan, Humphrey wins, if it's Rocky he narrowly wins.

1976: Scoop Jackson or Mo Udall: Ford only came as close as he did as Carter was a horrible candidate for the General election. Neither one of these candidates would've been as bad in the GE as Carter was.

1980: A Republican: If the field remains as it was, Bush is President 8 years early, if Ford decides to run however (he considered it but came to the conclusion he couldn't beat Reagan again), Ford is the first President since Cleveland to serve two non consecutive terms.

1988: Dukakis Call me crazy, but a Bushless 1988 is one scenario where I can see Dukakis winning as Dole would be the GOP nominee in this scenario and was a much weaker candidate/campaigner than Bush and Dole won't have Lee Atwater doing any dirty work. Plus, I don't think Reagan would do as much for Dole as he did Bush.

1992: Toss Up: A Clintonless 1992 means Moonbeam is the Democratic nominee. Brown was seen as pretty eccentric at the time, so if Bush exploits those effectively, he eeks out a win, if not Moonbeam wins by a much slimmer margin than Clinton did.

2000: McCain:  Despite their dislike of him, Republicans will still come out in droves for McCain due to being fired up after 8 years out of power and on top of that, McCain will have much more appeal to moderates and Independents than Bush. Also, Gore will make the some of the same mistakes (looking at you Joe Lieberman) that he did against Bush. It obviously won't be a landslide win for McCain, but he'll break 300 EVs.

2008: Hillary: This election shouldn't need much explanation. No Republican was winning this election with Bush's approval rating in the low 30s, especially not after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September (which caused Dubya's approvals to fall into the 20's).

2016: Yet Another Toss Up: If the GOP nominee isn't Kasich or Rubio in this scenario (there's a 50/50 chance this would be the case) Hillary wins. If Rubio makes through the General without his glass jaw getting shattered, he wins. If Kasich is the nominee (pretty unlikely) he wins. The fundamentals of '16 slightly favored the GOP, but the GOP itself was/is such a train wreck that the Democrats (who were/are in not much better shape) had a shot at it.