If the non-incumbent winner didn’t run (post WWII)

[Sir Mohamed]

What if, since 1952, the non-incumbent winner of each presidential election had never entered the race? Who would have become president? My thoughts:

1952: Robert Taft (Dems were doomed that year; but as he died in August 1953, his VP would have taken over soon. Maybe even Nixon?)

1960: Richard Nixon (I don’t see someone else other than JFK beating Nixon; a small chance Johnson wins, he would have been the nominee)

1968: Nelson Rockefeller (He was second for the nomination and would have won the GE, possibly by a larger margin than Nixon)

1980: HW Bush (he was the runner-up, almost any GOPer would have won)

1988: Bob Dole (runner-up, he beats Dukakis)

1992: That’s tricky, probably Jerry Brown (HW loses in any case; if Mario Cuomo enters the race, him)

2000: John McCain (as GOP nominee, I see him winning narrowly, but by a wider margin than W)

2008: Hillary Clinton (obvious)

2016: Hillary Clinton (if not Trump, Cruz would have been the GOP nominee and lost the GE)

[OSR stands with Israel]

1952: Robert Taft
1960: JFK
1968: Election gets Thrown Into House, where Humphrey Wins

1976: Henry Jackson
1980: George HW Bush(Unless some other major Republican who didnt run due to Reagan being viewed as inevitable ran)
1988: Bob Dole
1992: Jerry Brown (But Election possibly gets thrown to the House)
2000: John McCain
2008: Hillary Clinton
2016: John Kasich(I think without Trump in the race he dominates the Midwestern and the North East Primaries and Rubio still implodes at the NH debate)

[Sir Mohamed]

1952: Robert Taft
1960: JFK
1968: Election gets Thrown Into House, where Humphrey Wins

1976: Henry Jackson
1980: George HW Bush(Unless some other major Republican who didnt run due to Reagan being viewed as inevitable ran)
1988: Bob Dole
1992: Jerry Brown (But Election possibly gets thrown to the House)
2000: John McCain
2008: Hillary Clinton
2016: John Kasich(I think without Trump in the race he dominates the Midwestern and the North East Primaries and Rubio still implodes at the NH debate)

I doubt Kasich would have won the nomination. Ted Cruz would have been the nominee if Trump stayed out.

1976 was with an incumbent, btw.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1952: Robert Taft
1960: JFK
1968: Election gets Thrown Into House, where Humphrey Wins

1976: Henry Jackson
1980: George HW Bush(Unless some other major Republican who didnt run due to Reagan being viewed as inevitable ran)
1988: Bob Dole
1992: Jerry Brown (But Election possibly gets thrown to the House)
2000: John McCain
2008: Hillary Clinton
2016: John Kasich(I think without Trump in the race he dominates the Midwestern and the North East Primaries and Rubio still implodes at the NH debate)

I doubt Kasich would have won the nomination. Ted Cruz would have been the nominee if Trump stayed out.

1976 was with an incumbent, btw.

you said non incumbent winner and Ford Lost


There is almost no way I see Ted Cruz getting the nomination as he would do terribly in the Midwest, North East where there are many winner take all states , Florida(another winner take all) , Virginia , North Carolina and the West Coast(California is basically winner take all). The GOP primary map to the nomination is actually very unfavorable to candidates like Cruz.


There were only 3 other people I could see win the Nomination other than Trump: Kasich, Walker or Rubio. Walker flammed out quickly and Rubio imploded at the hands of Christe, not Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

1952: Robert Taft
1960: JFK
1968: Election gets Thrown Into House, where Humphrey Wins

1976: Henry Jackson
1980: George HW Bush(Unless some other major Republican who didnt run due to Reagan being viewed as inevitable ran)
1988: Bob Dole
1992: Jerry Brown (But Election possibly gets thrown to the House)
2000: John McCain
2008: Hillary Clinton
2016: John Kasich(I think without Trump in the race he dominates the Midwestern and the North East Primaries and Rubio still implodes at the NH debate)

I doubt Kasich would have won the nomination. Ted Cruz would have been the nominee if Trump stayed out.

1976 was with an incumbent, btw.

you said non incumbent winner:

Ford Lost

Actually I meant each election with no incumbent involved like 2008 or 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1952: Robert Taft
1960: JFK
1968: Election gets Thrown Into House, where Humphrey Wins

1976: Henry Jackson
1980: George HW Bush(Unless some other major Republican who didnt run due to Reagan being viewed as inevitable ran)
1988: Bob Dole
1992: Jerry Brown (But Election possibly gets thrown to the House)
2000: John McCain
2008: Hillary Clinton
2016: John Kasich(I think without Trump in the race he dominates the Midwestern and the North East Primaries and Rubio still implodes at the NH debate)

I doubt Kasich would have won the nomination. Ted Cruz would have been the nominee if Trump stayed out.

1976 was with an incumbent, btw.

you said non incumbent winner:

Ford Lost

Actually I meant each election with no incumbent involved like 2008 or 2016.

you did include 1992

[Sir Mohamed]

1952: Robert Taft
1960: JFK
1968: Election gets Thrown Into House, where Humphrey Wins

1976: Henry Jackson
1980: George HW Bush(Unless some other major Republican who didnt run due to Reagan being viewed as inevitable ran)
1988: Bob Dole
1992: Jerry Brown (But Election possibly gets thrown to the House)
2000: John McCain
2008: Hillary Clinton
2016: John Kasich(I think without Trump in the race he dominates the Midwestern and the North East Primaries and Rubio still implodes at the NH debate)

I doubt Kasich would have won the nomination. Ted Cruz would have been the nominee if Trump stayed out.

1976 was with an incumbent, btw.

you said non incumbent winner:

Ford Lost

Actually I meant each election with no incumbent involved like 2008 or 2016.

you did include 1992

You're right. I don't know why I didn't think about '76

[dw93]

1952: Robert Taft: Democrats were doomed no matter what that year, Taft would win but he'd do worse than Ike.

1960: Honest to God Toss Up: It all depends on who the Democrats nominate in a JFKless 1960. As it was, Nixon had a chance to win and if the Democrats nominate someone worse, Nixon wins. LBJ or Symington could pull it off, but it'd be close.

1968: Again Toss Up: Depends on who the GOP nominates. If it's Reagan, Humphrey wins, if it's Rocky he narrowly wins.

1976: Scoop Jackson or Mo Udall: Ford only came as close as he did as Carter was a horrible candidate for the General election. Neither one of these candidates would've been as bad in the GE as Carter was.

1980: A Republican: If the field remains as it was, Bush is President 8 years early, if Ford decides to run however (he considered it but came to the conclusion he couldn't beat Reagan again), Ford is the first President since Cleveland to serve two non consecutive terms.

1988: Dukakis Call me crazy, but a Bushless 1988 is one scenario where I can see Dukakis winning as Dole would be the GOP nominee in this scenario and was a much weaker candidate/campaigner than Bush and Dole won't have Lee Atwater doing any dirty work. Plus, I don't think Reagan would do as much for Dole as he did Bush.

1992: Toss Up: A Clintonless 1992 means Moonbeam is the Democratic nominee. Brown was seen as pretty eccentric at the time, so if Bush exploits those effectively, he eeks out a win, if not Moonbeam wins by a much slimmer margin than Clinton did.

2000: McCain:  Despite their dislike of him, Republicans will still come out in droves for McCain due to being fired up after 8 years out of power and on top of that, McCain will have much more appeal to moderates and Independents than Bush. Also, Gore will make the some of the same mistakes (looking at you Joe Lieberman) that he did against Bush. It obviously won't be a landslide win for McCain, but he'll break 300 EVs.

2008: Hillary: This election shouldn't need much explanation. No Republican was winning this election with Bush's approval rating in the low 30s, especially not after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September (which caused Dubya's approvals to fall into the 20's).

2016: Yet Another Toss Up: If the GOP nominee isn't Kasich or Rubio in this scenario (there's a 50/50 chance this would be the case) Hillary wins. If Rubio makes through the General without his glass jaw getting shattered, he wins. If Kasich is the nominee (pretty unlikely) he wins. The fundamentals of '16 slightly favored the GOP, but the GOP itself was/is such a train wreck that the Democrats (who were/are in not much better shape) had a shot at it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1968 Obviously Bobby Kennedy
1976 Ronald Reagan
1988 Loyd Bentsen
1992 Jerry Brown
2004 Dick Gephardt
2008 Hillary Clinton
2016 Bernie Sanders
2020 Cory Booker and Martin Heinrich

[Lechasseur]

1952: Robert Taft: Democrats were doomed no matter what that year, Taft would win but he'd do worse than Ike.

1960: Honest to God Toss Up: It all depends on who the Democrats nominate in a JFKless 1960. As it was, Nixon had a chance to win and if the Democrats nominate someone worse, Nixon wins. LBJ or Symington could pull it off, but it'd be close.

1968: Again Toss Up: Depends on who the GOP nominates. If it's Reagan, Humphrey wins, if it's Rocky he narrowly wins.

1976: Scoop Jackson or Mo Udall: Ford only came as close as he did as Carter was a horrible candidate for the General election. Neither one of these candidates would've been as bad in the GE as Carter was.

1980: A Republican: If the field remains as it was, Bush is President 8 years early, if Ford decides to run however (he considered it but came to the conclusion he couldn't beat Reagan again), Ford is the first President since Cleveland to serve two non consecutive terms.

1988: Dukakis Call me crazy, but a Bushless 1988 is one scenario where I can see Dukakis winning as Dole would be the GOP nominee in this scenario and was a much weaker candidate/campaigner than Bush and Dole won't have Lee Atwater doing any dirty work. Plus, I don't think Reagan would do as much for Dole as he did Bush.

1992: Toss Up: A Clintonless 1992 means Moonbeam is the Democratic nominee. Brown was seen as pretty eccentric at the time, so if Bush exploits those effectively, he eeks out a win, if not Moonbeam wins by a much slimmer margin than Clinton did.

2000: McCain:  Despite their dislike of him, Republicans will still come out in droves for McCain due to being fired up after 8 years out of power and on top of that, McCain will have much more appeal to moderates and Independents than Bush. Also, Gore will make the some of the same mistakes (looking at you Joe Lieberman) that he did against Bush. It obviously won't be a landslide win for McCain, but he'll break 300 EVs.

2008: Hillary: This election shouldn't need much explanation. No Republican was winning this election with Bush's approval rating in the low 30s, especially not after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September (which caused Dubya's approvals to fall into the 20's).

2016: Yet Another Toss Up: If the GOP nominee isn't Kasich or Rubio in this scenario (there's a 50/50 chance this would be the case) Hillary wins. If Rubio makes through the General without his glass jaw getting shattered, he wins. If Kasich is the nominee (pretty unlikely) he wins. The fundamentals of '16 slightly favored the GOP, but the GOP itself was/is such a train wreck that the Democrats (who were/are in not much better shape) had a shot at it.

I basically agree with this, except I'd give the edge to Bush in 1992 and to Clinton in 2016.