Illinois will NOT trend heavily Republican

[dw93]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

[dw93]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

It took 12 years and three consecutive landslide defeats (one of which was Carter's) to get the next centrist southern Democrat though. The fact that New Deal liberalism had a somewhat of a  last  revival within the Democratic party in the 80s shows Carter had little to no influence over the party in that decade.

[dw93]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

It took 12 years and three consecutive landslide defeats (one of which was Carter's) to get the next centrist southern Democrat though. The fact that New Deal liberalism had a somewhat of a  last  revival within the Democratic party in the 80s shows Carter had little to no influence over the party in that decade.

Well, Mondale being a nominee obviously suggested some latent influence.

Mondale was a New Dealer type himself though and didn't have any easy time getting the nomination. While Centrist Democrats existed in the 80s, they were more in the mold of Gary Hart (who gave Mondale a run for his money in 1984) and the "Atari Democrats" than they were Carter/Clinton.

[dw93]

To respond to topic of the thread, I do think the Democrats are at their peak support in this state. With that said I can only see Illinois at best for the GOP becoming a toss up swing state. Likely it's a lean D swing state past the after the 2020s while the rest of the rust belt at that time is either lean R (Michigan, Pennsylvania) or is  solid R(Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa).

[dw93]

To respond to topic of the thread, I do think the Democrats are at their peak support in this state.

Why?

I don't see the population in Chicago and Cook County increasing, if anything it will decline and the Collar Counties aren't as Democratic as some on this site paint them out to be. I live in Will, and I can tell ya that outside of Joliet, this county is pretty Republican and Will is on the Southwest Corner of Cook. On top of that, the Democratic party in this state SUCKS (I say this as a Democrat) and the only reason it has as much power as it does is because of corruption, the national Republican party being too socially conservative for most in this state, and the State GOP being Incompetent. If and when the House of Madigan/Cullerton goes down and if  the national GOP drops the culture war nonsense and goes in a more moderate or at least libertarian direction, and if the State GOP gets its act together,  I can see the Democrat's grip on the state loosening significantly. It won't become a solid red (atlas blue) state, but it won't remain a solid blue (atlas red) state either.

[dw93]

Nope.  Astrology says different.

Good thing I don't believe in astrology.

[dw93]

Rubio would have made Illinois a single digit Democratic victory. Kasich would've made it seriously competitive.

In a national landslide of a Republican popular vote victory I do agree the state could flip. But this site seems to think it will become as Republican as Indiana and Missouri.

It'll never be as Republican as Indiana or Missouri. Chicago and Cook County in general would keep that from happening. I do think however if the GOP ends up moderating on Social Issues, the Dems are in trouble when it comes to winning anything outside of Cook and if Chicago's population declines enough, Illinois could become a swing state or even lean Republican. Granted, this wouldn't happen until the 2030s or 2040s at the very earliest if it is to happen at all.