Which of the following do you consider swing states?

[dw93]

Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and no, Iowa and Ohio aren't gone for the Democrats yet. If the GOP wins them in both 2020 and 2024, then we can talk about them being gone.

Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are in the lean Blue category as far as I'm concerned. Virginia and Colorado were red (atlas blue) pre 2008 and then were won by Obama twice and Clinton once, Nevada, a swing state prior to 2008 was the same way.

Pennsylvania, and Michigan voted Democratic from 1992-2012 and swung to Trump by thin margins, Wisconsin was the same way from 1988-2012, so I'm not going to write those off for the Democrats yet. New Hampshire went GOP once since 1992, in 2000, and that was in part thanks to Nader.  New Mexico only went GOP once since 1992 as well, narrowly in 2004, thanks to the War on Terror. To be honest, Wisconsin in the only one of those three states I see becoming a red (atlas blue) state as it has been Republican at the state level more often than not over the last two to three decades and has gone solidly in that direction since 2010.

Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are lean republican. Arizona was only won once by the Democrats since 1952 and that was in 1996 and that was in large part thanks to Perot. Georgia did once since 1984, and that was in 1992,  again thanks to Perot.  North Carolina only went Democratic once since 1980, narrowly in 2008, and that was thanks to the financial crisis. Factor that out, McCain might've held on to it. Romney won it back in 2012 and Trump won it in 2016. I will say that Demographic changes can make them swing states, maybe eventually blue states, but those changes aren't happening fast enough to safely put them in the swing column.