PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,236
Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57
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« on: November 22, 2020, 10:22:14 AM » |
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This is a very good writeup. While MD Dems shouldn't expect the good environment they had in 2018, the partisan lean of the state has gotten increasingly better for them, even in some traditionally conservative areas. Ticket-splitting might be a bigger problem for Democrats than Republicans though; in 2018, Democrats lost an incumbent state senator in a Trump+21 district on the lower shore, and also lost a Clinton+9 open seat in the Towson area.
That being said, ticket splitting does have a history of benefiting Democrats, even in tough environments. The aforementioned Senate District on the lower shore was actually a Democratic pickup in 2010, of all years, in part due to it being an open seat. Democrats also held onto a state delegate seat there. It should be noted though that 2010 might as well have been a lifetime ago, and ticket-splitting has declined. But I think if Democrats can localize their elections, they should do okay.
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