2022 MD General Assembly elections megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

So it's looking more and more like the Dems had a knockout night in Maryland a few weeks ago. In the current count, Biden swung almost every single county (all but Somerset) to the left. Not only did Biden flip Frederick County, he won it by damn near double digits. He flipped Talbot, which Trump won by double digits himself in 2016. He won Anne Arundel by nearly 15 points, a county that Hillary only won by 2 and which hadn't gone D prior to that since 1964. The swings in Charles, Howard, Carroll, and Harford were also in the double digit range. Biden even managed to squeeze better margins than Hillary out of Montgomery, Prince George's, and Baltimore City, which are damn near maxed out for Democrats. To say it was anything other than a banner night is a lie.

Rs have a slim chance at best of holding onto the Governor's Mansion and Andy Harris is blessedly toast in redistricting, but all of this bodes well for Democrats' chances of expanding their already enormous majority in the General Assembly. Looking at the swings for State Senate districts, Biden clearly won Chris West's (R-42) already blue Baltimore County district by a lot, and I'm pretty confident that he won Ed Reilly's (R-33) Anne Arundel district and Robert Cassilly's (R-34) Harford County district as well. I wouldn't even be that shocked if Biden came close or even won Adelaide Eckardt's (R-37) Eastern Shore district, with how well Biden did in Talbot.

Of course, redistricting will change the stakes a little bit, but West, Reilly, and Cassilly are clearly the top targets for Democrats. Eckardt could get a bluer district with the full inclusion of Salisbury of her district rather than Mary Beth Carozza's (R-38), but she has a strong personal brand and overperformed massively in 2018. Carozza herself flipped a blue district in 2018, but that part of the state is rapidly trending R and probably isn't worth contesting. No other Republicans represent a remotely blue district or came close to losing in 2018, but keep an eye on Johnny Ray Salling (R-6) and Bryan Simonaire (R-31) in redistricting. Nobody in the Democratic caucus seems quite vulnerable. Katie Hester (D-9) flipped a red district in 2018, but Howard and Carroll Counties saw an insane D swing and I'm fairly confident she'll hold on pending redistricting. Sarah Elfreth (D-30) is entirely safe given Anne Arundel's swing, as is Kathy Klausmeier (D-8) despite her underperformance in 2018.

On the House side, you can probably say goodbye to Del. Joseph Boteler (R-8), who somehow managed a fluky win in a district Clinton won by over ten points. Same with Brenda Thiam (R-2B), whose Hagerstown-based district was already a Clinton district but who is also an unelected appointee to replace Paul Corderman, who himself replaced the retiring Andrew Serafini in the State Senate. Michael Malone and Sid Saab (both R-33) are in a tough place, as are Nino Mangione (R-42B), Trent Kittleman, and Warren Miller (both R-9A.) Again, no Democrats seem hugely vulnerable. Michele Guyton (D-42B), Heather Bagnall (D-33), and Brian Crosby (D-29B), all of whom represented Trump '16 districts, are almost certainly in Biden districts now and going forward.

TLDR: the R position in the MDGA is almost certainly going to get even more dire, given redistricting and Biden's crazy swings in Maryland. Reilly, Cassilly, and West are top targets in the Senate, whereas Thiam, Boteler, Kittleman, Miller, Malone, Saab, and Mangione are in a tough spot in the House. Between redistricting and the aforementioned swings, virtually no Democrat is going to have much of a tough time in 2022. In fact, I'm pretty certain no D incumbents in the State Senate are going to represent anything less than a Biden +10 district, and I'm pretty certain no D incumbents in the State House are going to represent a Trump district.

[Mr.Phips]

It will be interesting to see if Dems go for an 8-0 delegation in the US House.  It’s actually not that difficult to do and if Republicans are gonna cut out Dem seats in TN and MO, Dems may need to be aggressive here to make up for these losses.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is a very good writeup. While MD Dems shouldn't expect the good environment they had in 2018, the partisan lean of the state has gotten increasingly better for them, even in some traditionally conservative areas. Ticket-splitting might be a bigger problem for Democrats than Republicans though; in 2018, Democrats lost an incumbent state senator in a Trump+21 district on the lower shore, and also lost a Clinton+9 open seat in the Towson area.

That being said, ticket splitting does have a history of benefiting Democrats, even in tough environments. The aforementioned Senate District on the lower shore was actually a Democratic pickup in 2010, of all years, in part due to it being an open seat. Democrats also held onto a state delegate seat there. It should be noted though that 2010 might as well have been a lifetime ago, and ticket-splitting has declined. But I think if Democrats can localize their elections, they should do okay.

[wesmoorenerd]

Redistricting update! Christ West's 42nd was made significantly redder in redistricting and now voted for Trump in 2020 by nearly seven points. That said, Ed Reilly's 33rd was made much bluer and now voted for Biden by nearly nineteen, while Robert Cassilly's 34th was left basically unchanged and sits at Biden +9. Eckardt's 37th became a few points redder, and at Trump +5 is out of reach for this cycle at least. Surprisingly, it was leapfrogged by Michael Hough's 4th, which saw its margin for Trump halved. As for Dem-held districts, Sarah Elfreth's 30th held steady at around Biden +19, while Katie Hester's 9th and Kathy Klausmeier's 8th were shored up and now sit at Biden +28 and +26 respectively.

As expected, all of the Democratic incumbents are now in basically wave-proof districts. Even in this environment, none of them are going down. All of the Trump seat Rs are safe -- for this cycle, at least -- which leaves two battlegrounds in the form of Biden seats held by Republicans, Reilly's 33rd and Cassilly's 34th. Republicans have solid replacement candidates with experience in the House in both seats. Democrats have pretty good candidates too, with one huge exception: known hot mess Mary Ann Lisanti is running in the 34th, and if she sneaks through the primary, Dems may be in a rough spot.

On the House side, Kittleman's 9A has gotten ten points bluer and she's almost certainly a goner in a Biden +21 district. Thiam's 2B barely changed, but at Biden +13 she'll be facing strong headwinds even in this favorable environment. There's one more Republican in a Biden district: Carl Anderton in Biden +6 38B, but as best I can tell he's running unopposed in November. Great job, Dems. As expected, Guyton (42B), Bagnall (33C), and Crosby (29B) were all shored up north of Biden +12, though conceivably the latter two could go down in a big enough wave. Two open seat races created by redistricting may be worth keeping an eye on: 33B and 12B, both in Anne Arundel, though at Biden +10 and Biden +14 they're something of a lift for the Rs.

TLDR: the top battlegrounds in the Senate will be districts 33 and 34, both of which are R-held open seats that voted for Biden (albeit 33 by way more than 34). In the House, expect the battlegrounds to come on turf that Biden won by low double digits: the R-held 2B, the D-held 33C and 29B, and the open 33B and 12B. Republicans will only be able to "unlock" some of these gains on a truly great night.

Range of possible outcomes in the Senate: D+1-2

Range of possible outcomes in the House: D+4 to R+1