The next Virginia/Colorado

[PragmaticPopulist]

Virginia and Colorado appear to be trending Democratic, at least in presidential elections, and are falling out of reach of the GOP. They were fairly safe GOP states in 2004, and became tossups after 2008. What state or states do you think will go through this cycle in the next 8 to 16 years?

I myself think at least Arizona will be a tossup by 2020. Georgia might be a tossup by then too. I don't see Texas voting for a Democrat in a presidential election at least until 2024, unless its suburbs take another huge swing towards Democrats.

South Carolina was mentioned in some circles as competitive in 2016, but still swung towards Republicans. This appears to be because Greenville and Spartanburg are still pretty Republican, while Charleston and Columbia aren't as Democratic as other southern cities. I don't see it going Democratic in at least 16 years.

[PragmaticPopulist]

What about Florida?

Florida at least has some decent explanations, but North Carolina seems a little trickier. Democrats seemed to have the potential to make more progress there - they did win a lot more voters at one point, but it seems over the Obama years they lost them, or at least Clinton did, and perhaps another Democrat can make it up.

A steady stream of aging Boomer retirees, a slow-to-change Cuban population and a higher Democratic share of white support (which gave Democrats more room to fall, for numerous reasons, including their rural collapse) explains Florida.

Yeah. I was tempted to add Florida to the poll, but it's a bit of an outlier. Its population trends seem to be canceling each other out. My guess is it will continue to be a swing state, and possibly get so many electoral votes that it renders Ohio obsolete as the ultimate bellwether, as sad as it may sound.

North Carolina, on the other hand, seems a bit like a combination of Virginia and Florida. The suburbs or Charlotte, Durham, Raleigh, etc. still give Republicans decent margins, while Northern Virginia and Richmond's suburbs are becoming more Democratic by the year.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Firstly, I want to commend Pragmatic Populist for being a top-tier poster. We have experienced a major influx of new posters since the Georgia Primary, and you add significantly to the content, quality, and over contribution to Atlas. Thank You!

Secondly, I need to make a full confession----

I was the individual/idiot that voted "Other--- Alaska".

Now before the baying hounds start biting at my heels, let me explain the rationale or logic behind that vote, and not simply voting to be contrarian.

So when I read the original question as posed: "Which GOP-leaning state(s) will become tossups, and eventually lean DEM in the 2-4 presidential elections?" there are obviously ways to separate that into two parts----

1.) Which states will become tossups AND
2.) Eventually Lean Dem (2-4 Election Cycles)

So the obvious answer to Part I is that GA and AZ might potentially be considered tossups currently considering the '16 Presidential Election results. In the case of GA '08 needs to be added to the mix as well.

A.)  Georgia--- So the case for GA being a tossup is a bit flaky, in that it is premised upon a continued high level of Democratic support in the Atlanta suburbs, and high level of turnout among Millennial and African-American Voters.

At this point we have no evidence that "demographics are destiny" and that the major swings against Trump in the 'burbs of Atlanta are transferable, let alone that post Obama Democrats will be able to deliver the same level of support and turnout among African-American and Millennial voters.

Several of our resident Georgia experts have already cautioned that GA is not nearly an elastic state as many believe, and that a "normal" Centrist Conservative Republican will likely be able to regain ground lost in Metro Atlanta.

So, although we might consider GA to move into a toss-up realm in 2020 and possibly beyond, we have yet to see any evidence that Georgia will move into a "Lean Democratic" category within the next 4 Presidential Election cycles.

2.) Arizona--- We definitely have a bit more evidence that Arizona might well be a true "tossup" state in 2020 and beyond....

Rapidly growing Latino population of voting age, after several decades of Anti-Latino rhetoric from Republican lawmakers in the State, are effectively pushing Latino voters into the arms of the Democratic Party.... This is a phenomenon which could potentially mirror what happened in California that was a Republican State, until Pete Wilson decided to scapegoat Latino-Americans with a draconian "collective punishment" that caused many Republican leaning Latinos to start voting Democrat in massive numbers a few short years later.

That being said, Latinos make up only a fraction of the Arizona electorate at this time, and is still a state heavily dominated by older, wealthier, and more significantly California retirees.

Ok--- fair enough... I could well see Arizona moving to tossup status and eventual Lean Dem in 4 Pres election cycles (As opposed to GA, where that is harder to imagine).

Still--- the dramatic increase in Latino votes in '16 are only a small sliver of a much bigger story.... Much of the reason why AZ was so close in '16 had to do with a rejection of Trump among relatively wealthy retirees in Metro-Phoenix....

So similar to GA (Metro-Atlanta) will these voters switch back and start voting Republican again for President without Trump at the top of the ticket, once they get a "normal" Republican President?

It is interesting that even in some of the wealthiest Anglo parts of Maricopa County that "Sheriff Joe" got shot down in a blaze of glory, looking at precinct level results.

Assuming that the enthusiasm and grassroots organizing from '16 continues, it is not unfathomable that these classic Anglo SoCal retirees are rejecting the Anti-Latino racism and bigotry that pervades their new adopted State.

Time will tell.... money talks and money walks and something tells me these same voters will flip back Post Trump. There are a lot more Middle-Class Anglo retirees coming from SoCal over the next decade or so.

3.) Texas--- Bit of a cross between AZ and GA when it comes to predicting demographic change.

I lived in Texas (Houston Area) for four years, so definitely get the concept that Texas *might* become a tossup in '20/'24, but definitely don't see it moving "Lean Dem" anytime soon.

In order for Texas to move into Toss-Up status it would be predicated upon the following variables:

A.) Continued and expanding voter turnout levels among Working-Class Latinos (80-20 Dem). Is this sustainable in a post-Trump era if the Republican Party moves away from stereotyping Latino Voters?

B.) Equally importantly---- Middle Class Latinos in Texas tend to only vote Democratic narrowly on the margins, but they tend to vote much more frequently. *IF* the dramatic swings from '16 continue, this is a giant Red Flag for Texas Republicans, considering the overall level of support for George W. in '00/'04, as well as other subsequent Republican Presidential candidates in '08/'12.

C.) Anglo suburban voters---- This is obviously the key to the Lone Star State.... Are the dramatic 20% swings among wealthy Anglo voters in the 'burbs of Houston/DFW/SA/Austin sustainable in the Post-Trump era? I have serious doubts on that question, but again a fast moving and dynamic state where 80% of the Population resides in large Metro Areas, so anything is possible depending upon how new voters moving in go a few decades down the line.

4.) South Carolina--- Not seeing it there.... Sure Northern transplants to Coastal SC are potential swings, through in country-club areas outside of Richmond, and maybe some gains in the 'burbs of Charlotte, but NW-SC Whites would need to start shifting dramatically in order to make this state a "tossup" let alone "Lean Dem".

5.) Alaska--- Heck Trump only got 51% of the vote here in '16, in a state that has been shifting Democratic gradually over the past 3 election cycles.

Unlike GA and AZ, Alaska is not dependent upon the votes of fickle Upper Middle-Class Anglo suburbanites...

Unlike AZ & TX, Alaska is not dependent upon a massive Latino surge to somehow make the State competitive.

If any of the states listed will become "Lean Democratic" at a Presidential level by 2032, I wold pick Alaska rather than rolling through the CW of AZ & GA....

Alaska is much more elastic, and although there is state revenue and paychecks going to every resident from Alaska as part of a negotiated deal with the Oil Industry, the whole deal with Alaska is that they are independent...

The cost of just about everything is higher in Alaska than anywhere else in the US (Frequently 3x the cost), food, medicine, rural health care....

Demographics are not destiny, recent election returns don't represent the totality, so I chose to make a wild bet and go with Alaska as a "Lean Dem" state by 2032 (AZ and GA much more skeptical on).

Feel free to shoot my argument full of holes.... that's what I love about Atlas.

Thanks for the commendment. I've been lurking here for a few months, and finally decided to create an account with all the fascinating voting trends happening.

I agree with most of your analysis. I'll give you a bit of feedback for each state.

A.) Georgia --- I'd say it will probably take longer the become competitive than Arizona, though I could see it becoming a tossup if there is high Democratic enthusiasm, and maybe depressed Republican turnout. The south (besides Florida) is pretty inelastic. It was Ross Perot's worst region in both 1992 and 1996, but that's a different matter. My guess is if you combine Barack Obama's 2008 performance in the Black Belt with Hillary Clinton's performance in metro Atlanta, you'd get a bare majority, but that would be tough. And you're right to think a more conventional Republican could probably revert the trends in suburban Atlanta back to their traditional leanings. I still think it's too early to say whether the trends in southern suburbs in 2016 are a relatively permanent trend, or just a one-off. One county I'd keep an eye on is Forsynth County, northeast of Atlanta. It had the largest swing of any county in Georgia towards Democrats in 2016.

B.) Arizona --- You could almost argue Arizona is a tossup right now. Trump failed to get a majority of the vote here, and the "show me your papers" laws aren't gonna help Republicans win over Hispanic voters. I can see Arizona at least becoming a Florida-like swing state, where it stays evenly divided for many election cycles. The growing Hispanic population may be canceled out by Republican-leaning retirees, preventing it from becoming a leans D state. The key for a statewide D win would probably be Maricopa County. Like the state, Trump was unable to get a majority of the vote here, and underperformed Mitt Romney's margin.

C.) Texas --- Again, I agree with you that Texas behaves like both Arizona and Georgia. Its suburbs, like most of the south, give Republicans comfortable margins, though it has a significant Hispanic population, and with Trump being the face of the Republican Party, younger Hispanics may perceive Republicans as anti-Hispanic for a generation. As was common in 2016, Texas's suburbs experienced wild swings toward Democrats, enough to edge out a victory in Fort Bend County outside Houston. Texas has a lot of vote-rich counties that swung D in 2016, so I can't tell what a tipping point would be.

D.) South Carolina --- Yeah, I don't see it flipping anytime soon. Upstate South Carolina is a fast-growing region, but it seems to be attracting mostly Republican-leaning voters.

E.) Alaska --- I see your logic here. Alaska is very prone to wild swings. Alaska natives don't really seem to have partisan loyalties, but they did show signs of trending D in 2016, IIRC. The only thing I see possibly hampering Democrats' chances here are third parties, and Alaska really seems to like third parties, regardless of ideology.

[PragmaticPopulist]

West Virginia. And the same way Virginia did too (growth around the DC area).

TBH I don't really think this is the most likely state to pull a VA, it's just the state I want to pull a VA the baddest.

Jefferson county would have to get absolutely yuge and vote like Loudoun, VA for that to happen.  Like, there would have to be a congressional district entirely within it.

I see your point. I've been to Jefferson County, and it doesn't exactly feel like typical Trump country. It's unlikely anytime soon to make the state pull a VA, but the eastern panhandle seems to be not as Republican at the presidential level as the rest of the state, and is the fastest growing part of WV.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I think the 2032 battleground map could look something like this...

Why are Illinois, Kansas, and Alaska the way they are?

Alaska--Will be swingy depending on third party candidacies.

Kansas--Will continue to trend slightly D in coming presidential elections and will become a fools' gold target.

Illinois--Will go the way of PA eventually, especially as the favorite son effect of Obama and Hillary moves further and further out of citizens' collective memory.

I believe the D trend in 2016 was due to Trump being the GOP nominee

Trump was a uniquely poor fit for Chicago's collar counties. He basically turned Illinois into a Virginia of sorts because while he probably maxed out the vote share in downstate, he tanked in Chicago's suburbs.