The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Harlow]

O’Malley’s in Nevada today:

https://twitter.com/MartinOMalley/status/1058834089061560320

He’s also now started putting out campaign-style Youtube videos at a rate of more than one a day, in his “This We Believe” series.  E.g.:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc7OrZxOR3w

These videos are full of his fortune cookie-like sayings, e.g.:

“We are stumbling backwards into the future, but the world only spins forward.”

“No people ever mastered the winds of change by pretending that they weren’t blowing.”

Can’t wait for him to talk about how love is a superpower in the primary debates.

"We won the last two Industrial Revolutions, and we can win this one too."

Well, that's certainly an interesting way of putting it.

[Harlow]

In other news, Charlie Baker says he “absolutely” plans to serve out his new term as governor:

https://www.necn.com/news/politics/Massachusetts-Governor-Charlie-Baker-Republican-Re-Election-2nd-Term-Agenda-499941742.html

Of course. There's no room for Charlie in the national GOP.

[Harlow]

I'm becoming increasingly convinces that Marianne Williamson is going to be 2020's Carly Fiorina. A successful businesswoman and compelling speaker who will surge after a few good debate performances and then plummet back down due to a small, under-funded campaign that can't withstand the debate bump.

I highly doubt she'll make any of the main debates.

[Harlow]

Sirota wasn't calling Beto "the next Obama" just in order to attack Beto, he simultaneously was calling attention to what he feels were Obama's destructive policies on climate and healthcare, among other things, and arguing why those policies are not what the country (or the world) needs right now. Here's a pull quote directly from the article:

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When making an argument for/against candidates, it's much more productive and healthy for the political discourse to discuss matters like their actual policy positions than some arbitrary horserace discussion about their popularity or personality. Journalists who eschew the former in favor of the latter aren't doing their jobs, or at the very least shouldn't claim to be serious political journalists ("bloggers" would be a more fitting term).

Not going to derail the thread anymore so I won't continue discussing this, but figured that point needed to be made because it's pretty obvious.

[Harlow]

Her announcement video is fantastic-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=13P1KqMfxiI

What a strange quote to end on.

"[...] You have done all this very much out of the spotlight."
*cut to campaign logo*

Like, okay...

[Harlow]

Flake: "I will not be a candidate":

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeff-flake-former-gop-arizona-senator-will-not-be-a-candidate-in-2020/

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HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I am shocked. Who could have ever thought Flake would flake.

[Harlow]

Schultz is planning trips to the early primary states for some reason:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/howard-schultz-likely-to-visit-early-primary-states-as-he-considers-2020-run.html

Not sure he realizes that there are no primaries if you’re running as an independent.

Hahaha what on earth is this man doing

This makes me think he has no actual intention of running as an independent (or at all), and it's just an attention-seeking ploy to get his ideas out there and shift the tone of the Democratic primary to be more moderate. Purely speculation, of course.

[Harlow]

Sen. Elizabeth Warren to announce her candidacy next Saturday on February 9.  

She’ll be announcing at Everett Mills, an old textile mill characteristic of Massachusetts during the early 20th century. It is also the site of the 1912 Bread and Roses strike, and is currently a multi-purpose office building.

I have no way of proving this, but I somehow predicted she would announce at an old, repurposed Massachusetts mill as a symbol of old industry becoming something new.

[Harlow]

According to my source (I wrote a few posts like this in this thread with informations about Democratic primaries) there is some kind of infighting between Sanders and Warren about staffers, donors, money,  or simply who is better candidate of progressive wing in these primaries and whole elections and stuff.

That is not good news for progressives.

Infighting between two candidates in a primary? Well I never!

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/chelsea_janes/status/1094652609036718080

Well, at least we know she's not gonna have the problems Martha Coakley did.

Such a boring logo compared to the mock-up found in a DC cafe.

[Harlow]

Any word on when Gillibrand is going to officially launch?

[Harlow]

Maybe this doesn't really need to be said, but one last thing I'll mention before I call it a night is that while the "no chance" candidates like Klobuchar, Gabbard, Brown, Delaney, Ojeda, etc have practically no chance at winning the nomination, they can be useful to the Democratic nominee by inserting narratives into the nationwide political dialogue that are productive. For instance, Brown and Ojeda can push the "Trump is a conman who mislead the white working class into supporting a candidate who backed the Paul Ryan agenda, what could we have expected from a billionaire" narrative, which if executed well can be decisive in bringing back the WI-MI-PA trio back into the Democratic fold. Gabbard can do the same for the "Trump promised to end unnecessary foreign intervention but bombed Syria" narrative. On the flipside, Klobuchar and Delaney might end up hurting the Democratic nominee by touting the "we can't get too extreme for the American people" narrative, which will definitely be something the likes of Bernie, Warren, Harris, etc will have to contend with.

Time will tell as to how all this plays out. I wouldn't be surprised if none of that works out and 2020 becomes a Trump friendly environment.

Ojeda dropped out.

[Harlow]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

President Ford's second term agrees with this too!

.

He was an incumbent president challenged in the primary this new situation has nothing to do with that

I think they're referencing the fact that Carter emerged from a very crowded Dem field and that didn't hinder his chances in the general.

[Harlow]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

And on top of that, Biden seems a very likely target for #MeToo accusations, either sincere or GOP-generated.  Both from Thomas' confirmation hearings and the regular appearances of "Creepy Uncle Joe".

He would be a very poor choice for nominee. Fortunately, I doubt he's running.

He's very likely to run, and the metooers can deal with it. Just because hes a straight white male doesn't mean they can just go after him without any actual evidence of anything.

Plus, they probably won't even go after him, because he's a democrat (Franken was a rare exception) and even if there is evidence against him of anything the media won't report it because again, he's a democrat. They only want to deflect the negative attention towards Trump.

John Conyers? Keith Ellison?

[Harlow]

Biden:

“I have the most progressive record of anybody running,”

Ohhh, so he's going for the comedy tour angle.

[Harlow]

Anything new on Gillum?

Announcement coming tomorrow.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-nsf-andrew-gillum-tease-20190319-story.html

After a surprise primary election victory, the former Tallahassee mayor had hoped to make Florida history by becoming the state’s first black governor. DeSantis dashed those dreams, but the campaign skyrocketed Gillum onto the national stage.

Despite the loss, Gillum’s been rumored to be considering a run for president in an already-crowded Democratic field.

Will that be the “major announcement” coming Wednesday in Miami, or will Gillum throw his support behind one of the other contenders?

[Harlow]

Mike Gravel is...considering...running.

Ahhhh I wish I was old enough to vote for him the first time he ran. I really like that he's not aiming to win but instead get a bold progressive voice into the debates.

If he were to run, he would aim not to win, but instead to qualify for the 2020 Democratic debates in order to send a message that no other candidate, not even Bernie Sanders or Tulsi Gabbard, is willing to issue.

All of the policies listed on that website are perfect. I'd be donating to him and asking everyone I know to as well.