IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

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Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

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Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

I meant the national environment and Obama's low approvals are the main reasons why Scott and LePage won in 2010 and 2014. Also Rauner is immensely unpopular and wasn't there a poll where most Illini blamed him for the budget issues? 

I don't recall that poll, and I remember MC having him at 40-49 last time they polled, so not immensely unpopular.   https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-ratings-july-2017/

Edit:  26% Approval is immensely unpopular imo.

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Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

I meant the national environment and Obama's low approvals are the main reasons why Scott and LePage won in 2010 and 2014. Also Rauner is immensely unpopular and wasn't there a poll where most Illini blamed him for the budget issues? 

I don't recall that poll, and I remember MC having him at 40-49 last time they polled, so not immensely unpopular.   https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-ratings-july-2017/

Edit:  26% Approval is immensely unpopular imo.

You don't need 26% approval to flip a gov seat....

Was referencing Madigan.

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Bliss drops Ramirez-Rosa from his ticket

Nice flip flopping my dude, anyway, Kennedy to announce his running mate next week.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/time-running-out-for-kennedy-to-choose-running-mate-442674383.html

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Ok, is being Anti-Israel anti-semetic or did BDS talk about the Elders of Zion?  If the latter then yeah they'd be anti-semetic.

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Congrats, Governor Pritzker Rauner.

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I think it's now safe to say it's either Kennedy or Pritzker now for the D Nom. Biss just blew up any shot he had.

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Bliss drops Ramirez-Rosa from his ticket

God dammit.

I am convinced that Illinois wi never have even a halfway decent governor.

It does, the voters will just be dumb smart enough to vote him out and start over for a second term and get rid of Madigan.

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Drury drops his gubernatorial bid, appears to be in for Attorney General.

https://capitolfax.com/2017/09/19/drury-says-hes-in-the-ag-race/

A much better choice than running for Governor, hopefully he's able to win the Democratic nomination.

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Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

I'll alert the press.

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Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

Still do?

Rauner Signs Bill Allowing State Health Insurance, Medicaid To Cover Abortions

I support this, but man is Rauner taking a gamble with GOP support here. Good for him.

He's betting that Madigan will get the GOP Base out and this will help him with moderates.  I think it'll work tbh, but I'm obviously biased.

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Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

Still do?

Rauner Signs Bill Allowing State Health Insurance, Medicaid To Cover Abortions

I support this, but man is Rauner taking a gamble with GOP support here. Good for him.

He's betting that Madigan will get the GOP Base out and this will help him with moderates.  I think it'll work tbh, but I'm obviously biased.

This will work for suburbanites who care more about their pocketbook than about culture war issues. Question is, will better numbers among those voters offset any decline among those in Rauner's base who care about the culture war issues. In other words, will this gain him more "I'm socially liberal, but keep my taxes low" DuPage, Lake and Kane voters than he sheds from the single-issue abortion voters he may lose?

The single issue Republican voters hate IL Dems more than they'll vote against Rauner at this point. Those muh fiscal conservative but social liberal votes are what pushed him over the line; he needs to shore them up more so.

Definitely. But what I'm asking is will Rauner's flip-flop (or whatever you want to call this decision) result in those single issue voters abstaining from voting altogether? And of those who do, will the fiscal conservative / social lib demo increase offset the turnout decline? This'll be a fun one to watch.

I just wish I didn't have to see all of the awful commercials.

Great Campaigns are always accompanied by sh**t ads.

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It would be just shy of Safe R.  This is Wheaton.

Maybe. That district wasn't even that safe by 2012 presidential results, and now it's almost a C+10 district. If she runs for that seat again it would be a different story, but there is a substantial difference between challenging an incumbent and running for an open seat, particularly in bad midterms for the White House party. Presidential results are also good, but not perfect predictors for how those races turn out. Again, much more accurate if its open.

This is part of what makes 2018 so exciting. Lots of interesting swings happened in 2016, and now we can see if they will hold, starting this November for Virginia/New Jersey. In Illinois, Clinton won 76 House districts and 42 Senate districts, and if you count districts Obama-Trump districts, it is 83 state House seats. That's a whole lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to take back a super-majority and continue screwing up the state without respite

No

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New primary poll from Capfax (that I'm not putting in the poll board b/c I don't have the full crosstabs):
JB 39%
Kennedy 15%
Biss 6%
Daiber 1%
Hardiman 1%

Sample size 1,154, MoE +/- 3

Kennedy has become Jeb! Leading the first few polls and collapsing later on to a billionaire, nice.

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Rauner Officially In, primary from Jeanne Ives incoming

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New primary poll from Capfax (that I'm not putting in the poll board b/c I don't have the full crosstabs):
JB 39%
Kennedy 15%
Biss 6%
Daiber 1%
Hardiman 1%

Sample size 1,154, MoE +/- 3

Kennedy has become Jeb! Leading the first few polls and collapsing later on to a billionaire, nice.

You're so right, Kennedy is totally Jeb! I hate it cause I supported/support both guys, but they are nearly impossible sells as candidates.

(Is this sarcasm? just want to be sure)

Assuming it isn't, you'll probably end up holding your nose and voting Pritzker, just like I think most Soc Cons will hold their nose and vote for Rauner.

Pritzker is so much worse.  I'd rather have Kennedy.

Only reasons Kennedy isn't the nom is Pritzker's $/Establishment Ties and the fact that the Kennedy name isn't enough anymore.

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Rauner Officially In, primary from Jeanne Ives incoming

I encourage the people of IL to give Rauner #FourMoreYears

Tossup ----> Safe R

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Pritzker is so much worse.  I'd rather have Kennedy.

Only reasons Kennedy isn't the nom is Pritzker's $/Establishment Ties and the fact that the Kennedy name isn't enough anymore.

feel like you're underestimating how awkward and weird kennedy is

I'm saying he'd be the nom if Pritzker weren't in basically, but he'd most certainly have a fight for it.  (Also I called him Jeb!, how can I be underestimating his awkwardness?

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Ives is confirmed to be circulating petitions with former state Rep Rich Morthland as a running mate. She is still circulating petitions to run for reelection to the IL House as well.

Let her come

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Jeanne Ives held a press conference flanked by state legislators who have endorsed her: http://www.mystateline.com/news/republican-legislators-including-rep-tim-bivins-endorse-ives-for-governor/937543529

In my wildest dreams, I wish for a Daniel Biss/Jeanne Ives showdown curbstomping lol

ftfy

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https://youtu.be/W5_AsZXEgVw

Ouch!  If I were Rauner, I'd hold my fire until after JB has won the primary.  He might not make it at this point.  Progressives are turning on him.

Yeah, what the hell is he doing? He should wait until JB is the nominee, and then blast him with these ads. This could be a gamechanger, but instead he seems to be trying to get Biss or Kennedy as his opponent?

He probably thinks the primary is safe Pritzker.  But there is still about 2 months left.  This could really hurt JB.

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With redistricting coming up, it's beyond pathetic that national Dems aren't stepping in to stop the Pritzker sh*t show.

Well what are they gonna do to stop him?
He's got the entire state machine and his billions behind him, how could they stop him without throwing everything against him?

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That ad is not helping her in the Collars at all.

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Preckwinkle endorses Pritzker

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-preckwinkle-pritzker-endorsement-20180207-story.html

Biss lands support of Move On and Our Revolution

https://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/our-revolution-illinois-endorses-sen-daniel-biss-471698764.html

https://front.moveon.org/moveon-members-in-illinois-endorse-daniel-biss-for-governor/#.Wnuhm6inE2w

>Preckwinkle

There goes a small chunk of support for Pritzker.  The Pop tax stuff should still be somewhat relevant in people's minds.

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There are a lot of interesting races in Illinois aside from Governor.  The Chicago mayoral race is starting to get some attention.  Paul Vallas might run and Garry McCarthy is all but in.  Toni Taxwinkle is being challenged by Bob Fioretti in the aftermath of her pop tax debacle.  She used to be untouchable but not anymore.  Then obviously there's Joe Berrios vs Fritz Kaegi.

Should we we turn this into an Illinois megathread or create a Cook County megathread??

Just an IL-Megathread in general is my vote.