How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

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Connecticut 3rd has NO CHANCE of flipping.

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New Haven.

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Thanks. 

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I don't know.  You KNOW there will be Simmons/Delay ads all over and I expect them to be VERY effective with Connecticut's independent minded voters.  Combine the portrayal of Simmons, Anti-Iraq sentiment, and the fact that Simmons represents the most Democratic of all Republican held districts and I really think he could go down.  I predict a Democratic pickup.

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She was SOOOO close in 04 and the War is going to have a real impact.  Shays can't be portrayed as a partisan party hack as easily as Simmons though.  I predict a Democratic pickup.

But what is more interesting is when we look at CT-5.  Chris Murphy is 100x the challenger that her last opponent was.  Her "identity" piece of legislation is a disaster.  She can almost as easily as Simmons be portrayed as a partisan Republican.  AND THE WAR!  I predict that the seat has a 50/50 chance of being a Democratic pickup.  I know essentially no one else on the planet would even be willing to go that far so I won't predict a Dem pickup... But I will predict that if it isn't a pickup it will be REALLY REALLY close.  It will come down to the anti-war sentiment in N.B.

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Clearly CT had an anti-Democratic gerrymander.

Well the Dems would do better against Johnson if Bristol, Southington, Berlin and the Rural North West were swapped for Farmington, Simbsbury, etc...  But it isn't close to being Texas or Penn.

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He seems like a very promising candidate and is also very young (mid-30's?) I'll be rooting for him.

Me too.  He is a solid pick.  He was campaign manager for the last serious challenge that she had in 1996 and is currently raising funds at a better rate than any challenger she has ever faced.

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Not sure what I'll put effort into yet.  Though I do have a personal stake in wanting Johnson out. =)

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Portraying Shays, Simmons, Johnson as partisians is really an old trick. It's always been a tactic used against them. How much more effective can it be?   They always have something to point to that they did against the will of the leadership, and the voters so far have believed them.

Yep but I am 100% sure that the eventual Delay = Simmons ads will end up crushing him.  Johnson took Delay's money too.  It is going to come back and hurt them greatly. =)  Shays however is actually a decent guy and surely not a partisan.  And if the extremist wing of the Republican party wasn't in control I'd have no problem giving Shays my vote (though I'm not in his district).  But a vote for Shays is a vote for Delay, Blunt, Bush, Frist and the rest of the most extreme politicians that have ever run this country... At least in my lifetime. 

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Do do honestly believe that Rell's influence will outweigh the corruption in Washington and the War?  If you do I think you're very very wrong.  And I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. =)

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Linking Congressional Democrats in the South to Nancy Pelosi doesn't always work either.  I live in Louisiana, and have seen two districts flip parties to the Democrats in the past two years despite Pelosi leading the party.

Your comparison of Delay to Pelosi is poor.  Pelosi while no doubt a liberal is not indicted and the most corrupt politician in the country. =)  When Abramoff's scandal investigations are finished it will make his other criminal involvements look like rolling through a stop sign.

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Money does not equal speech.  And boy are you going to have a fit if in 2008 it is McCain vs Feingold huh?  And nothing would be better for Progressives than for the GOP to be vocal in their opposition to campaign finance reform.  EXPECIALLY in Connecticut where our Republican governor is pushing hard for even further restrictions... =)