UK Election 2010

[Harry Hayfield]

Ah, I was wondering when this might start up (considering the comments Mr. Brown made yesterday) and for once I am ahead of the game (both on the 2005 boundaries and the 2007 boundries). All of which poses the question though, which set of boundaries will the next election be contested on?

If it's the 2005 boundaries, then there are the benchmarks for the Conservatives:

Number of Conservative targets for overall majority: 126
Labour overall majority: Any swing to Lab -> 2.33% swing to Con
Labour hung parliament: 2.35% swing to Con -> 4.64% swing to Con
Conservative hung parliament: 4.66% swing to Con -> 6.32% swing to Con
Conservative overall majority: 6.34% swing to Con or greater

However, if we are working on the 2007 boundaries, those numbers change

Number of Conservative targets for overall majority: 116 (-10)
Labour overall majority: Any swing to Lab -> 1.86% swing to Con
Labour hung parliament: 1.89% swing to Con -> 4.22% swing to Con
Conservative hung parliament: 4.24% swing to Con -> 5.91% swing to Con
Conservative overall majority: 5.98% swing to Con or greater

The current poll average for June is: Con 36.5% Lab 34.8% Lib Dem 16.8% which is an average Con lead of 1.8%. This represents a 2.4% swing to Con and therefore produce the following results (according to UK Elect)

Election 2005 boundaries: Con 264 Lab 326 Lib Dem 21 Others 35 (Lab maj 6)
Election 2007 boundaries: Con 278 Lab 317 Lib Dem 20 Others 35 (Lab short of an overall majority by 9)

[Harry Hayfield]

According to the Parliamentary Information Office, the order changing the constituencies will take place 14 days after being presented to the Privy Council. The order was presented to them on June 13th 2007.

According to the Ministry of Justice (who actually oversee the boundaries in law) it will formally come into law on Wednesday, June 27th 2007 (although the boundaries for the Ealing, Southall by-election will be fought on the 2005 boundaries).

[Harry Hayfield]

These are the seats that Labour can afford to lose and still have an overall majority in Parliament (Con in second place unless stated)

1) Gillingham and Rainham (0.03%)
2) Crawley (0.09%)
3) Rochdale (0.35%) Lib Dem
4) Harlow (0.58%)
5) Croydon Central (0.72%)
6) Oxford East (0.73%) Lib Dem
7) Portsmouth North (0.77%)
Battersea (0.81%)
9) Edinburgh South (0.94%) Lib Dem
10) Hove (1.00%)
11) Hampstead and Kilburn (1.14%) Lib Dem
12) Ochil and Perthshire South (1.47%) SNP
13) Islington South and Finsbury (1.56%) Lib Dem
14) Milton Keynes North (1.72%)
15) Arfon (1.82%) Plaid Cymru
16) Stroud (1.85%)
17) Dartford (1.90%)
18) Basildon South and Thurrock East (2.14%)
19) Ealing Central and Acton (2.16%)
20) City of Chester (2.20%)
21) Watford (2.33%) Lib Dem
22) Colne Valley (2.51%)
23) Cardiff North (2.53%)
24) Hastings and Rye (2.54%)

[Harry Hayfield]

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then Labour still have an overall majority

1   Gillingham and Rainham
2   Crawley
3   York Outer (Lib Dem)
4   Romsey and Southampton North (Lib Dem)
5   Harlow
6   Cheltenham (Lib Dem)
7   Croydon Central
8   Portsmouth North
9   Battersea
10   Hove
11   Somerton and Frome (Lib Dem)
12   Eastleigh (Lib Dem)
13   Westmorland and Lonsdale (Lib Dem)
14   Milton Keynes North
15   Stroud
16   Dartford
17   South Basildon and East Thurrock
18   Ealing Central and Acton
19   City of Chester
20   Hereford and South Herefordshire (Lib Dem)
21   Colne Valley
22   Cardiff North
23   Hastings and Rye
24   Calder Valley
25   Stourbridge
26   Carshalton and Wallington (Lib Dem)
27   Milton Keynes South
28   Corby
29   Taunton Deane (Lib Dem)
30   Perth and North Perthshire (SNP)
31   Vale of Glamorgan
32   South Swindon
33   South Dorset

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then Labour will be the largest party in a hung Parliament

34   Northampton South
35   High Peak
36   Loughborough
37   Aberconwy
38   Watford
39   Birmingham, Edgbaston
40   Stafford
41   Angus (SNP)
42   Broxtowe
43   Chippenham (Lib Dem)
44   Burton
45   Brighton, Kemptown
46   Bury North
47   Redditch
48   Rugby  
49   Pendle
50   Wolverhampton South West
51   Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
52   South Ribble
53   South Derbyshire
54   Bristol North West
55   Dumfries and Galloway
56   Tamworth
57   Torbay (Lib Dem)
58   Cleethorpes
59   Sutton and Cheam (Lib Dem)
60   North Swindon
61   Westminster North
62   Worcester
63   North Cornwall (Lib Dem)
64   Harrow East
65   Richmond Park (Lib Dem)
66   Great Yarmouth
67   Cheadle (Lib Dem)
68   Eltham
69   Brigg and Goole
70   Portsmouth South (Lib Dem)
71   Bedford
72   Stevenage
73   Hendon
74   Chatham and Aylesford
75   Brentford and Isleworth
76   Bradford West
77   Rossendale and Darwen
78   Hammersmith

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then the Conservatives will be the largest party in a hung Parliament

79   Blackpool North and Cleveleys
80   Halifax
81   Lancaster and Fleetwood
82   Dewsbury
83   Dudley South
84   Northampton North
85   Edinburgh South
86   Warrington South
87   Truro and Falmouth (Lib Dem)
88   Wirral South
89   Southport (Lib Dem)
90   Lincoln
91   North West Leicestershire
92   Wyre Forest (KHHC, Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern)
93   Gedling
94   Halesowen and Rowley Regis
95   Nuneaton
96   Ochil and South Perthshire
97   Leeds North West (Lib Dem)
98   Brecon and Radnorshire (Lib Dem)
99   Camborne and Redruth (Lib Dem)
100   Warwick and Leamington
101   Dover
102   Keighley
103   Newton Abbot (Lib Dem)
104   North Devon (Lib Dem)
105   Poplar and Limehouse
106   Stirling
107   Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport
108   Dudley North
109   Elmet and Rothwell
110   Reading West
111   Tynemouth
112   Morecambe and Lunesdale
113   Pudsey
114   South East Cornwall (Lib Dem)
115   Ipswich

If all these seats turn blue (Lab unless otherwise stated) then the Conservatives have an overall majority

116   Bolton West (and look how the prime target for the Conservatives is, Ruth Kelly MP!!!)
117   Bolton North East
118   Waveney
119   Sefton Central
120   Tooting
121   St Austell and Newquay (Lib Dem)
122   Amber Valley
123   Barrow and Furness
124   Winchester (Lib Dem)
125   Gloucester
126   Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Lib Dem)
127   Thurrock
128   Argyll and Bute (Lib Dem)
129   Brighton, Pavilion
130   Mid Dorset and North Poole (Lib Dem)
131   Copeland
132   Hampstead and Kilburn
133   Oxford West and Abingdon (Lib Dem)
134   Stockton South
135   Carlisle
136   Batley and Spen
137   Bath (Lib Dem)
138   Kingswood
139   Hyndburn
140   Weaver Vale (Conservative Majority of 50 if gained)

[Harry Hayfield]

Now, because the last election produced a three way battle, I've decided to do two Lib Dem swingometers (just like the BBC), the first is a Con vs Lib Dem swingometer. The seat listed at the end is the seat that the attacking part should gain on that swing

10% to Con: 21 seats (Hazel Grove)
9% to Con: 24 seats (Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine)
8% to Con: 30 seats (Colchester)
7% to Con: 31 seats (Bath)
6% to Con: 38 seats (Cornwall South East)
5% to Con: 44 seats (Southport)
4% to Con: 46 seats (Portsmouth South)
3% to Con: 52 seats (Chippenham)
2% to Con: 53 seats (Taunton Deane)
1% to Con: 56 seats (Westmorland and Lonsdale)
No swing: 62 seats
1% to Lib Dem: 70 seats (Eastbourne)
2% to Lib Dem: 73 seats (No seat)
3% to Lib Dem: 82 seats (Totnes)
4% to Lib Dem: 88 seats (Bournemouth West)
5% to Lib Dem: 93 seats (Chelmsford)
6% to Lib Dem: 103 seats (St. Albans)
7% to Lib Dem: 113 seats (Broadland)
8% to Lib Dem: 131 seats (Dumfriesshire)
9% to Lib Dem: 149 seats (Gainsborough)
10% to Lib Dem: 171 seats (Tewkesbury)

[Harry Hayfield]

As was demonstrated at Election 2005, there aren't that many Labour targets for the Lib Dems to aim at (certainly at the next election there are more than last time but not as many as the Lib Dems would like)

10% to Lib Dem: 171 seats (Bedford)
9% to Lib Dem: 149 seats (Streatham)
8% to Lib Dem: 131 seats (Birmingham, Hall Green)
7% to Lib Dem: 113 seats (Aberconwy)
6% to Lib Dem: 103 seats (Glasgow North)
5% to Lib Dem: 93 seats (Liverpool, Wavertree)
4% to Lib Dem: 88 seats (Norwich South)
3% to Lib Dem: 82 seats (Edinburgh North and Leith)
2% to Lib Dem: 73 seats (Aberdeen South)
1% to Lib Dem: 70 seats (Islington South and Finsbury)
No swing: 62 seats
1% to Lab: 61 seats (Manchester, Withington)
2% to Lab: 60 seats (Bristol West)
3% to Lab: 58 seats (Hornsey and Wood Green)
4% to Lab: 55 seats (Birmingham, Yardley)
5% to Lab: 52 seats (York Outer)
6% to Lab: 52 seats (No seat)
7% to Lab: 51 seats (Cambridge)
8% to Lab: 48 seats (Bermondsey and Old Southwark)
9% to Lab: 47 seats (Eastleigh)
10% to Lab: 46 seats (Portsmouth South)

[Harry Hayfield]

And not just in your area either. There was a very nice graphic shown during the local election programme in 2004 (actually it was Newsnight) that demonstrates this point very well indeed (now let's see if there's a copy of it online anywhere)

Nope, there's not (darn the fact that I can't transfer DVD + RW recordings from my DVD player online). Anyway I shall have to describe the graphic instead.

Local Elections 2004: Projected National Vote Share
Con 38% Lib Dem 29% Lab 26% Others 7% = Con lead of 9% over Lib Dem
Change in Votes when a general and a local is held on the same
Lib Dem -8% Lab +4% Con +2% Others +2%
(This means that in a general election, the Lib Dems do 8% worse, Labour do 4% better, and the Conservatives and Others do 2% better)

Now since then we have had of course the 2005 local and general elections. I've found out what the national projected share was for those locals (and the change on the general) and so the new differentials are:

Con: -3% (3% worse in the general than local)
Lab: +10% (10% better in the general than local)
LDm: -6% (6% worse in the general than local)
Oth: -1% (1% worse in the general than local)

So applying that to the local elections this year, instead of Con 40% Lab 26% Lib Dem 26% Others 8% (which is what the BBC carped on about all night) what they should have said is: Con 37% Lab 36% Lib Dem 20% Others 7% (which when you look at it is not that much difference from the Locals 2006 adjusted projection (Con 36% Lab 36% Lib Dem 19% Others 9%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Indeed we can. It might take a little time to create the graphics, but I can certainly give you the core numbers.

General Election 2009(ish)
Conservatives 36% (+3% on 2005)
Labour 32% (-4% on 2005)
Liberal Democrats 24% (+1% on 2005)
Others 8% (Unchanged on 2005)

Forecast House of Commons
Labour 277 seats (-72 seats)
Conservatives 272 seats (+62 seats)
Liberal Democrats 69 seats (+7 seats)
Others 32 seats (+3 seats)
Labour short of an overall majority by 49 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

You have to click on it to see any detail

[Harry Hayfield]

GAINS and LOSSES

Conservative GAINS from Lab (unless stated): Aberconwy, Battersea, Bedford, Birmingham, Edgbaston, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Brigg and Goole, Brighton, Kemptown, Bristol North West, Broxtowe, Burton, Bury North, Calder Valley, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Chatham, Cheltenham (Lib Dem), City of Chester, Cleethorpes, Colne Valley, Corby, Crawley, Croydon Central, Dartford, Dudley South, Dumfries, Ealing Central, Eltham, Gillingham, Great Yarmouth, Hammersmith, Harlow, Harrow East, Hastings, Hendon, High Peak, Hove, Loughborough, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Swindon North, Northampton South, Pendle, Portsmouth North, Redditch, Romsey (Lib Dem), Rossendale, Rugby, Basildon South, Derbyshire South, Dorset South, Ribble South, Swindon South, Stafford, Stevenage, Stourbridge, Stroud, Tamworth, Vale of Glamorgan, Westminster North, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, York Outer (Lib Dem). Total: 62 seats

Labour GAINS: None

Liberal Democrat GAINS from Lab: City of Durham, Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South, Hampstead, Islington South, Liverpool Wavertree, Oxford East, Rochdale, Watford. Total: 10 seats

Other GAINS from Lab: Arfon (Plaid), Ynys Môn (Plaid), Ochil and Perthshire South (SNP). Total: 3 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

A very close result in the popular vote is almost certain I think, but here in the UK it would not produce a close result in the House of Commons (and the cry would go up to adopt the Jenkins Commission report for AV+).

According to UK-Elect, the sort of result you would like would give us a vote share of:

Labour 9,623,041 (36.41%) winning 333 seats
Conservatives 9,622,763 (36.41%) winning 250 seats
Labour lead of 278 (out of 28 MILLION votes) lead by 83 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

You are indeed quite right, if you refer to the Con vs Lib Dem swingometer I published earlier in this thread the danger the Conservatives pose to the Lib Dems can not be understated.

For instance, at the moment the Lib Dems has 62 seats. It would only take a swing to Con of 7% for that figure to be halved, and then only an extra 4% swing on top of that to halve that number again.

You can see the problem that the Lib Dems have in the three party battleground. Of the 62 seats they hold, 38 seats are being challenged by the Conservatives, 13 are being challenged by Labour, 1 is a three party battle and only 7 could be genuinely called safe Lib Dem seats.

[Harry Hayfield]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, Respect did get a number of councillors in Tower Hamlets in the 2006 locals so they do have a base to work from. Certainly, when a MP stands down that does make the seat much more tricky to defend. I think at the moment (this is before Ealing, Southall mind) it's likely to be a Lab gain (as the majority at the moment is only 804 (2.10%))

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In a nutshell, no. Look at the change between 2001 and 2005. KHHC -19%, Con +7%, Lab +3%, UKIP +1%, Lib +6%. Even if the Liberal Democrats don't contest the seat again at the next election and given that the Conservatives now essentially control Wyre Forest council, his best thing is to stand down and secure his legacy as the only Indpendent MP to win two elections in a row

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not if I can flipping well help it! You see the seat in question is my seat of Ceredigion (and let me tell you when it declared as a gain by 219 I was staggered in every sense of the word). Since then of course we got a 2% swing from Plaid to the Lib Dems in the Assembly elections and are banking on the theory that Assembly elections are viewed in a different light to Westminster elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Absolutely, without a shadow of a doubt. Every single poll forecast I enter has Brighton, Pavilion popping up Green.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Impossible, by the looks of things. UK-Elect has a match seat forecaster than can make 25 calculations max before it gives up. After 25 calculations based on the % share of the vote for the 2005 notionals, UKIP poll 989,851 votes (3.74%) and yet have to win an MP. After those calculations, their best prospect is Boston and Skegness (Con 44% Lab 30% UKIP 15% Lib Dem 9% Others 2% Green 1). If I was a UKIP advisor, I would have to ask Nigel Farage a serious question: "Which do you want? Loads of UKIP votes and no MP's? Or very few UKIP votes and MP's? You can't have it both ways!".

[Harry Hayfield]

In Northern Ireland- Will SDLP and UUP win re-election in their only seats?

UUP (1)
North Down: UUP should hold, but by no means certain. They will need tactical voting from people who prefer Alliance; Greens; Tories and SDLP to guarantee the seat.

SDLP (3)
Foyle: It seems like the SF vote here has stabilised here in the low 30's and the SDLP even on a bad day should pass that. Putting forward the prospect of a SF MP though should be enough to gain some UUP votes to keep this the SDLP's safest seat.

South Down:
If McGrady runs again, I'd imagine they should hold the seat. SF though are an increasingly difficult challenge. If the DUP and UUP made a deal such that only one unionist would stand, they'd be in genuine contention too. Unlikely though and again I;d imagine the prospect of a SF MP could help gain enough votes from the Unionist side to keep the seat in SDLP hands.

South Belfast:
Most tenuous of all of the three. Too early to tell what way this could go (it may still be too early when the votes are being cast). SDLP slight, very slight favourites from the DUP, but plenty of variables at play.

However, despite my generraly positive (if hesitant) analysis for them in these constituencies, it's very difficult to see where either party can be really competitive if trying to win other seats.

Northern Ireland's notionals have been delayed (and so it's possible that Northern Ireland might be still fought on the 1997 boundaries at the next election)

[Harry Hayfield]

Average of polls for June 2007:
Con 36.25% Lab 35.50% Lib Dem 16.25% Others 12.00%
Con lead of 0.75%
Allowing for election drift (based on 1997, 2001 and 2005 campaign):
Lab 35.50% Con 34.25% Lib Dem 18.25% Others 12.00%
Lab lead of 1.25%
Forecast House of Commons:
Lab 342 (-7) Con 231 (+21) Lib Dem 36 (-26) Others 41 (+12)
Labour overall majority of 34 (which would be enough to survive a five year parliament)

[Harry Hayfield]

Polls since Blair offically stood down as PM (on June 27th 2007)
ICM (published on June 29th) Labour 39% Conservatives 35% Liberal Democrats 18% Others 8% Labour lead of 4%

You Gov (published on June 30th) Labour 38% Conservatives 35% Liberal Democrats 15% Others 12% Labour lead of 3%

Populus (published on July 3rd) Labour 37% Conservatives 34% Liberal Democrats 18% Others 11% Labour lead of 3%

ICM (published on July 8th) Labour 37% Conservatives 35% Liberal Democrats 17% Others 11% Labour lead of 4%

ICM (published on July 15th) Labour 40% Conservatives 33% Liberal Democrats 19% Others 8% Labour lead of 7%

Average of polls since Blair resigned: Labour 38.2% Conservatives 34.4% Liberal Democrats 17.4% Others 10% Labour lead of 3.8%

Average of last five polls before Blair resigned: Labour 35% Conservatives 36.6% Liberal Democrats 15.2% Others 13.2% Conservative lead of 1.6%

Change between Blair and Brown average: Labour +3.2% Conservatives -2.2% Liberal Democrats +2.2%% Others -3.2%%

This is why I think we could have a general election as early as October 2007 or as late as May 2008.

[Harry Hayfield]

Let us assume that we get a general election vote share of something like Lab 33%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, Others 12% (which is entirely possible). That would give us a House of Commons thus:

Labour 317 seats
Conservatives 233 seats
Liberal Democrats 63 seats
Scottish Nationalists 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 5 seats
Respect 2 seats
Independents 2 seats
Greens 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats

Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons but without an overall majority. The first thing that would happen is that the PM (Brown) would travel to the Palace (still as PM) and advise the Queen on the result of the election. He could then do one of two things, 1) resign as PM and advise that David Cameron be asked to form a government or far more likely 2) advise the Queen that he will need a month to form a majority administration. He would then return to Number 10 (still as PM) and start talks most likely with the SDLP (3), Dai Davies (1), Respect (2) and the Greens (1), that would take up to 324 if they all agreed to vote for the Brown policies. Next would come talks with the combined Plaid and SNP delgeations (14) now these talks could be a bit more fractious as the SNP would probably call for Brown to recognise the right of Scotland to hold an independence referendum and Plaid would say "We want to hold our legislation referendum". If he managed to get those two on board that would take him up to 338 (and over the 330 winning line), so there would be no need for Brown to resign as PM (unless he felt he couldn't get a majority administration).

[Harry Hayfield]

According to the forecasts it's Poplar and Limehouse that goes Respect

[Harry Hayfield]

According to all the forecasts I have (based on the new boundaries) the Respect wins are:

Bethnal Green and Bow (by between 900 and 2,700 dependent on Others)
Poplar and Limehouse (from Labour by less than 1,000)

[Harry Hayfield]

Respect Oppotunities
(Results as of 2005 notionals)
Bethnal Green and Bow: Respect 37% Lab 34% Con 12% Lib Dem 12% Green 5% Oth 0%
Poplar and Limehouse: Lab 35% Con 25% Respect 24% Lib Dem 14% Green 3%
East Ham: Lab 54% Respect 21% Con 14% Lib Dem 11% Oth 1%
West Ham: Lab 52% Respect 20% Con 12% Lib Dem 10% Green 3% Oth 2% UKIP 1%
Tottenham: Lab 58% Lib Dem 17% Con 13% Respect 6% Green 5% Oth 1%

Constituencies where Respect did well in 2005 (but now reorganised)
Birmingham, Hall Green: Lab 42% Lib Dem 26% Con 15% Oth 12% UKIP 3% Green 1% (Respect polled 27% in Sparkbrook which makes up 69% of Hall Green)

What chance the BNP of winning a seat?
The best chance of a BNP gain is Barking (Lab 50% Con 17% BNP 16% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 4% Green 2% Oth 2%) but for that to happen there would have to be a collapse in the Con, Lab and Lib Dem vote.

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, not really and you can't really trust Electoral Calculus either unfortunately. You see their base figures are wrong to start off with. The only true base figures you can completely rely on are those produced by Thrasher and Rallings for the BBC, Sky News, ITN and the Press Association. Electoral Calculus's figures are not those (and therefore in my book aren't worth the website they are printed on).

As to the validity of the poll, yes, I do believe it is absolutely correct. So far Gordon Brown has enabled Labour to enjoy a bounce of 2.5% on average (compared with June 2007), based on past history (i.e when Major replaced Thatcher) this is the sort of thing we might expect

June 2006: Con 36% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% Others 12%
July 2007: Con 34% Lab 42% Lib Dem 14% Others 10%
August 2007: Con 35% Lab 40% Lib Dem 15% Others 10%
September 2007: Con 34% Lab 42% Lib Dem 13% Others 10%
at which point Gordon Brown calls a general election and we end up with a vote share of:
Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 15% Others 11% which when run through an election forecaster gives you a House of Commons thus:

Labour 390 seats
Conservatives 206 seats
Liberal Democrats 18 seats
Others 36 seats
Labour majority of 130

[Harry Hayfield]

How exactly do you figure out the seat numbers?

Personally, I use UK Elect

[Harry Hayfield]

Galloway's confirmed he's running again: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6940517.stm

And you will note it's that new Poplar and Limehouse seat (that all my projections have going Respect), but interesting too that he thought about Blackburn as well (Lab 42% Con 23% Lib Dem 21% BNP 6% Ind 4% UKIP 2% Green 2%). That would have been an interesting Respect vs BNP battle.

[Harry Hayfield]

Taken from Adam Smith's blog:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Harry Hayfield]

There was an interesting debate on BBC Parliament this afternoon on the timing of a general election (and it raised the following thought in my head).

Let's suppose Brown goes for an October 2007 election. A campaign is usually 4 weeks long so if we say an October 25th election, that would mean an announcement on Thursday 27th September 2007 or before which just so happens to be the last day which is when the leader's speech is held.

Wouldn't it just be Brown to say at the end of his speech, "This morning I met the Queen to ask for a dissoultion of Parliament to which she has consented and that a general election will be held on October 25th 2007. Go back to your constituencies and work for that 4th Labour electon win!"

Certainly would kybosh Cameron's plans!