United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Harry Hayfield]

Following the announcement yesterday that the Chancellor will hold his Spring Budget on March 6th 2024, and the comments by the Shadow Secretary of State for International Trade today that a "May election was the worst kept secret in Parliament", there is a general feeling that 2024 will be an election year in the United Kingdom.

However, despite this there is as of December 28th, no indication of the formal publication of the notional calculations for the 2019 general election on the new boundaries created by the passage of the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, therefore no one is in a position to say what impact a Labour lead of 20% would have on an election, save that it represents a 16% swing from Conservative to Labour since 2019.

[Harry Hayfield]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.



Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

I have expressed an interest in standing for the Greens, but so far that is all I have done, it is now down to them to decide whether my standing has merit or not.

[Harry Hayfield]

Based on the statement made by the Prime Minister today, my personal belief is that the election will be held on October 10th 2024, the election called on the day that Parliament returns after the summer recess with that recess being used by the Conservatives to campaign on the quiet in a last ditch attempt to close the Labour lead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67871404

[Harry Hayfield]

YouGov's statement is worth a read: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today

Effectively it accuses the Telegraph of deliberately misreporting the poll.

Plaid on 50% in Ynys Môn, reasonable, Plaid on 15% in Caerfyrddin, unreasonable
Labour on 21% in Aberdeenshire North, unreasonable, Labour on 28% in Dundee Central, reasonable

MRP does not do the SNP or Plaid any favours, therefore the Scottish and Welsh calculations need to be taken with a pinch of salt

[Harry Hayfield]

As always, an MRP with a large Labour lead will find Labour winning in places that initially look very unrealistic. If you assume the Labour lead will reduce by the election, then so will the ‘unbelievable’ Labour gains.

I am reminded of this from Election 1997. Start of the campaign, Labour 51%, Conservatives 22%. Election Night Exit Poll: Labour 44%, Conservatives 29%, Actual Result: Labour 43%, Conservatives 31%

[Harry Hayfield]

Poll shows almost total wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is vulnerable to tactical voting (especially as those Labour voters have been moved from Neath, a rock solid Labour seat, into a Con seat therefore they will vote for the party best placed to beat the Conservatives and that will be the Lib Dems) but Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, that will only be a Con loss if there is a single opposition candidate

[Harry Hayfield]

There appears to be an attempt by Conservatives to get rid of Sunak underway.

The call came from the Conservative MP for Middlesborough South (who was a Cabinet Minister under Truss) and has been rebuffed by Tobias Ellwood MP (Con, Bournemouth East) who was a defence minister under Theresa May.

[Harry Hayfield]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.



Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

I have expressed an interest in standing for the Greens, but so far that is all I have done, it is now down to them to decide whether my standing has merit or not.

The constituency that I would have liked to have stood in told me that a local councillor who wishes to stand for the Senedd had put his name forward, and as I have stated that if they could find no one else to stand I would stand, I graciously let him stand being far more local than me, so today when the call was published for local candidates for this constituency I have asked for an application form

[Harry Hayfield]

Change in region on Election 2019
Great Britain: Con -22% Lab +14% Lib Dem -3% SNP -2% Con to Lab swing: 18%
Scotland: SNP -12% Lab +17% Con -9% Lib Dem -3% Con to Lab swing: 13%
Wales: Lab +6% Con -14% Plaid +1% Lib Dem unchanged Reform +5% Con to Lab swing: 10%

That suggests that Scotland and Wales are lagging behind England in Labour's popularity and therefore it is possible that Labour would only recover five of their Welsh losses to Con from 2019 and in Scotland may prevent the SNP from wining any of their Con targets

[Harry Hayfield]

With regard to that poll from the Times saying Lab lead by 27%, there are two things

1) Electoral Calculus always overegg their forecasts, remember they are a commerical company therefore are trying to sell their forecasts and nothing sells better than "Government could be wiped out at next election)

2) In 1997, which I think 2024 is turning into, Labour entered the campaign on 55% of the vote, and won the election with 44% of the vote, the Conservatives entered on 31% and lost the election with 31%, with the Liberal Democrats and the Referendum party picking up the losses from Labour. I think it is very likely we will see the same again, this time between the Lib Dems and Reform UK

3) Therefore a more likely election result would be: Lab 40%, Con 21%, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 10%, Green 10%, SNP 3 with using UK-Elect gives a House of Commons of: Lab 407, Con 139, Lib Dem 40, SNP 39, NI Parties 18, Plaid 3, Ind 2, Green 1, Speaker 1

[Harry Hayfield]

I honestly think whoever wins Ashfield will get in with under 35% of the vote, potentially even under 30%. Reform will throw a lot at it (and whilst I agree Anderson isn’t beloved, it’d be wrong to think he’s despised too).

 Zadrozny is a ruthless campaigner, his legal issues haven’t stopped him til now - when I went there in 2019 I literally had someone say “the deep state want to take him down”. 2019 was a lot more febrile than now, but I’d be wary of underestimating his support too.

Labour will go hard at it, and we’ve got a good chance, but Zadrozny & Anderson will both have much stronger name recognition and potentially more resources (or at least equal). It’s one I really wouldn’t want to call.

Ashfield along with Finchley and Golders Green are the two constituencies I am not confident about the forecasts for that I generate. They both come out as three way marginals (Ashfield, Lab and Finchley, Lib Dem) but I do not believe that those parties will win it in my heart (Ashfield Independents and Labour)

[Harry Hayfield]

Differing opinions on election date in the media today

Times: Sunak tempted to go for broke with summer election
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-tempted-to-go-for-broke-with-a-summer-election-fzkdnx5j3

FT: Hunt to cut 2p of NI in Autumn Statement (suggesting October 17)
https://www.ft.com/content/4972e747-1297-4f81-8162-0b4d0d68c9af

[Harry Hayfield]

If Sunak follows what Sanchez did in Spain in 2023 he calls the GE after the locals end up in crushing tory losses.

Can't see them regrouping like PSOE though.

The sole reason that Sanchez did that was to bring all the left wing parties in an electoral system that needs coalescing parties in order to get a majority, the UK's electoral system does not.

[Harry Hayfield]

The most likely timetable is this:

July 23rd 2024: Parliament rises for the summer, and Conservatives start campaigning on the quiet
September 2nd 2024: Parliament resumes after summer break
September 11th 2024: Autumn Statement where there is another 2p cut in National Insurance, a 1p cut in income tax across the board and the promise of another 1p income tax cut if the Conservatives win another term of office
September 16th 2024: If Labour's lead in the polls is greater than 10%, no election will be called, if it is less than 10% election called for October 17th 2024

In other words, it's either going to be October 17th 2024 or January 23rd 2025, and if it is the latter I am very minded to go to London and see if I can wangle helping either the BBC or ITV with their coverage in some way and then on the Sunday after the election, attend the memorial event for the death of King Charles I

[Harry Hayfield]

The thread title can be edited now I suppose.

I shall start a new one once a formal announcement is made

[Harry Hayfield]

General Election called for July 4th 2024

[Harry Hayfield]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

Belfast East: boundary changes probably marginally help Alliance and they must have a decent chance

Belfast South & Mid Down: if it weren't for tactical voting this would be very interesting, but as it is the SDLP will probably hold comfortably

Belfast West: zzzzz

Belfast North: boundary changes help SF a little and in the absence of anything splitting their vote they should hold on

North Down: I think Farry (Alliance) is favoured but there is this challenge from Independent Unionist Alex Easton.

Strangford: boundary changes help Alliance (by bringing in heavily Catholic areas where they will hope to get tactical votes) but probably not by enough unless the DUP are having a real meltdown

Lagan Valley: I would be sceptical of Alliance's chances here if it weren't for the DUP's troubles, which I think give them a genuine chance

South Down: if the SDLP couldn't win this back in 2019 I doubt they do now

Newry & Armagh: see Belfast West

Upper Bann: DUP should be safe enough here

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: well, it's Fermanagh & South Tyrone, so close between SF and the UUP with the former favoured

West Tyrone: see Belfast West

Mid Ulster: see Belfast West

Foyle: I think the SDLP's huge win in 2019 was a one-off and SF are in with a chance of taking this back

East Derry: still pretty safe DUP

North Antrim: if the TUV were going to win anywhere it would be here, but I would be a bit surprised

East Antrim: another Alliance long shot, but I think it's less likely than Lagan Valley or Strangford

South Antrim: the UUP's best chance of taking a seat back from the DUP, and the latter's troubles mean they must actually have a decent chance

Depending on whether I do a UK or GB forecast on UK-Election I either have just one change (UUP gain Fermanagh) or two changes (SF gain Upper Bann, Alliance gain Belfast East) and of those two the latter seems more plausible