''Gay 'boost' for Cameron''

[Harry Hayfield]

In 2005, 42% of the gay community voted for the Labour party (declared votes of those interviewed) whilst 31.1% voted Liberal Democrat with just 19.2% voting Conservative.'


Full results

LAB 37.5%
CON 29.7%
LIB 27.3%

So, that means:

Labour 42.0% -> 37.5% (-4.5% on 2005)
Conservatives 19.2% -> 29.7% (+10.5% on 2005)
Liberal Democrats 31.1% -> 27.3% (-3.8% on 2005)
Others 7.7% -> 5.5% (-2.2% on 2005)
Swing from Lab to Con of 7.5%

Which if applied to the UK as a whole on the 2005 boundaries gives us:

Conservatives 325 seats
Labour 236 seats
Liberal Democrats 55 seats
SNP 5 seats
Plaid Cymru 4 seats
Others 21 seats
Conservative majority of 4

Forecast for Brighton, Pavilion (constituency with the highest percentage of gay voters)

Con 31%
Lab 28%
Green 22%
Lib Dem 16%
UKIP 1%
Others 1%

Con gain from Lab on a swing of 7.5%

[Harry Hayfield]

Good news for the Conservatives, the electoral impact might be negligible… then again what about Hove?... but it’s a good sign that popular perceptions of the party are shifting in a more positive direction, and in the longer term I think the electorate in general is beginning to see the Conservatives as credible and reflective of the society in which ordinary people live, I’d say that this poll is probably suggestive of this.

I should of course add that the Tories still have a great deal of work to do though.   

Forecast for Hove

Con 44%
Lab 30%
Lib Dem 18%
Green 6%
UKIP 1%
Others 1%

Con gain from Lab on a swing of 7.5%