St Patrick's Day (Mar 17) Election Results Thread

[Bidenworth2020]

I am curious what deflated turnout does to the results. Obviously Biden wins regardless, but is it blowout margins?

[Bidenworth2020]

Although it is pointless, I voted for Sanders this morning.

How was the line at your precinct (and what area did you vote in)?

[Bidenworth2020]

Old people are willing to crawl over glass to vote for Biden. Sanders vote is staying home.

https://twitter.com/ad_quig/status/1239948660378669060

You gotta love old people

[Bidenworth2020]

Matthew Isbell said it best: if you are feeling comfortable going to the grocery store then there is no problem going to vote.

Young people are comfortable enough going to bars and beach parties over spring break during this outbreak but not to the damn polls.

Ok grandpa

LOL you look at the turnout reports and tell me he is wrong

[Bidenworth2020]

There will be NO EXIT POLLING from Edison Research. I am hearing though that FOX NEWS Vote Cast is operating.

When will this be released?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/1240022776318214146

lmao if this is anywhere near the actual result bernie has to drop out.

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden's Core Group of Voters are 65+ but given the Coronavirus they are now less likely to go to the Polls. If the older Voters are not performing at Levels Pre-Election Polls were suggesting the Races could be a lot tighter tonight.

Somebody hasn't seen the turnout reports that were literally posted in this very thread.

In all fairness, the only turnout report was in an area that skews older in terms of population. Might not be entirely representative.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/1240022776318214146

lmao if this is anywhere near the actual result bernie has to drop out.

I would toss all exits, even if they do end up being correct in the end margin. Corona has made the situation even more uncertain and hard-to-poll.

Maybe, but I think we can at least call the 3 states for Biden with those kinds of numbers.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/1240022776318214146

lmao if this is anywhere near the actual result bernie has to drop out.

I would toss all exits, even if they do end up being correct in the end margin. Corona has made the situation even more uncertain and hard-to-poll.

Maybe, but I think we can at least call the 3 states for Biden with those kinds of numbers.

Oh certainly, I'm just saying the data is questionable. I absolutely believe that Biden will hard sweep all three.

Do we have any idea whether it is just lower turnout across the board or if one group is disproportionately not showing up though?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/1240022776318214146

lmao if this is anywhere near the actual result bernie has to drop out.

I would toss all exits, even if they do end up being correct in the end margin. Corona has made the situation even more uncertain and hard-to-poll.

Maybe, but I think we can at least call the 3 states for Biden with those kinds of numbers.

Oh certainly, I'm just saying the data is questionable. I absolutely believe that Biden will hard sweep all three.

Do we have any idea whether it is just lower turnout across the board or if one group is disproportionately not showing up though?

If you put 1 and 1 together the most likely Group who will have disproportionately lower turnout it would be Senior Citizens because they're simply the most vulnerable group to COVID-19. In Florida & Arizona it in all likelyhood won't matter because 40 % (Florida) and 60 % (Arizona) will be early Vote.

In Illinois though it could matter a lot to the extend if these folks don't show up in the Numbers the Biden Campaign expecting the Race could be within 10 Points.

the only report we have out of Illinois is showing youngs, not olds, turning out less.

[Bidenworth2020]

Mods, please sticky--

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/us/elections/results-primary-elections-florida-illinois-arizona.html

[Bidenworth2020]

Taking bets now: will Bloomberg or Tulsi get more presidential votes in the Panhandle? This is a region with a good number of registered dixiecrats who still dominate a few counties dem registration, and those that voted early in other states seemed happy with Bloomberg. This is also a region that likes to throw their vote away when it could matter, casting ballots for nobodies when they could potentially matter.

Is this really even a question? I would be fairly surprised if Tulsi does better than any of the drop-outs.

[Bidenworth2020]

Taking bets now: will Bloomberg or Tulsi get more presidential votes in the Panhandle? This is a region with a good number of registered dixiecrats who still dominate a few counties dem registration, and those that voted early in other states seemed happy with Bloomberg. This is also a region that likes to throw their vote away when it could matter, casting ballots for nobodies when they could potentially matter.

Is this really even a question? I would be fairly surprised if Tulsi does better than any of the drop-outs.

Points in Tusli's favor: She's still in the race (aka like edwards '08), and most of her fans are of the GOP persuasion.

This didn't seem to help her in the other contests lmao

[Bidenworth2020]

Taking bets now: will Bloomberg or Tulsi get more presidential votes in the Panhandle? This is a region with a good number of registered dixiecrats who still dominate a few counties dem registration, and those that voted early in other states seemed happy with Bloomberg. This is also a region that likes to throw their vote away when it could matter, casting ballots for nobodies when they could potentially matter.

Is this really even a question? I would be fairly surprised if Tulsi does better than any of the drop-outs.

Points in Tusli's favor: She's still in the race (aka like edwards '08), and most of her fans are of the GOP persuasion.

This didn't seem to help her in the other contests lmao

And it won't help her outside of the panhandle in the rest of Florida. But panhandle dixiecrats are a unique type of voter...

Fair, though one factor you might be failing to consider is a lot of these types changing their registrations (Isbell made a map which indicated a steep decline in dem registrations in this area).

[Bidenworth2020]

Projection: Joe Biden wins Florida

Obviously he is favored but any reasoning for this?

[Bidenworth2020]

Anybody betting on Miami-Dade Margins???

Was 75-24 HRC in '16....

60-27 Biden?

[Bidenworth2020]

Leon County, perhaps not surprisingly looking like one of Bernie's strongest thus far....

Also matching Biden's statewide %. Wonder why they had less other voters?

[Bidenworth2020]

Just saw an AZ exit poll on MSNBC and 35% of DEM PRIM voters were 65+

Is this high or low?

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden doing a little bit better with Black voters in Illinois then in the Deep South, getting about 27%.

umm what? where are you seeing this?

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden doing a little bit better with Black voters in Illinois then in the Deep South, getting about 27%.

umm what? where are you seeing this?

Steve Kornacki on MSNBC.

oh ok. And I assume you mean Bernie, not Biden?

[Bidenworth2020]

According to the FOX NEWS VOTER ANALYSIS/VOTE CAST Sanders beat Biden among Hispanics in Illinois 49-43. Only 10% of the IL D-Primary Voters described themselves as Hispanics though.

That is a humiliating margin for Bernie considering he dominates among urban hispanics.

[Bidenworth2020]

DDHQ shows Bernie has won Williamson County with 8 votes to Biden's 7.

NYT has Biden up 23-10 with 1 precinct reporting.

[Bidenworth2020]

I hesitate to put much stake into it as it's only 7% in but Cook Co. (Chicago) was HRC +8 in 2016 and was a critical chunk of her edge over Bernie. Seeing Biden only 1 point ahead is... interesting.

Even if this holds Biden is winning literally everywhere else.

[Bidenworth2020]

According to FOX NEWS Voter Analysis 28 % of the AZ Electorate are Hispanic and Sanders winning them 46-36.

In line with polls that had Biden up 20.

[Bidenworth2020]

Good news for Bernie: it looks like he might win one county today.

He has also won Champaign County with 100% reporting.

Us map nerds are drooling rn

Wonder if Bernie won any township besides the main City.