Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Bidenworth2020]

when outgamie comes in, i think hagedorn takes the lead.

[Bidenworth2020]

Ugh.  I stayed up for this?

[Bidenworth2020]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

increased republican turnout. democrats held what dallet got for the most part

[Bidenworth2020]

This win shows that Trump's win was not a fluke, and WI will be a competitive state

I mean, that was clear regardless, and would've been just as true even if Neubauer had won. I don't think these results automatically make Wisconsin more Republican than Pennsylvania any more than the SC election in 2018 made WI-GOV Safe D, despite what some on Atlas said.

This. This election was a disgusting underperformance on the democrats part, but I do not see what bearing it has on the 2020 race.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hagedorn's margin just narrowed to 0.2% with 94% in, this may not be completely over

true, especially with absentees out favoring dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

I am sick to my stomach that Hagedorn MIGHT have won. I guess outside of Milwaukee and Dane, Wisconsin really is a truly backward and bigoted state.

this was a turnout race, but sadly this is a generally correct assessment

[Bidenworth2020]

not gonna hold my breath, but how many absentees are out?

[Bidenworth2020]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months! Mark my words.

don't give up on WI like this. We are going to fight like hell for it come 2020.

[Bidenworth2020]

I would never wish harm on anybody, even Hagedorn voters, but I do think a well-known company or two leaving WI would help them realize the man they just elected.

[Bidenworth2020]

well that sucks

understatement of the year?

[Bidenworth2020]

Time for Stalinist margins to come from Dane

Literally watch Karnofsky win 85% in Dane and lose by a few points.

[Bidenworth2020]

How the  can you have FIVE polling stations open in a city of 600,000 and call that a fair election?

[Bidenworth2020]

The absentees still look worse than 2019, though it looks like Dane, since it has so many more polling places, might save democrats.

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1247508356316749824

[Bidenworth2020]

Republicans are very reliant on Waukesha in Supreme Court elections, even more so than in other elections.

Yeah, Democrats do better in all 4 of the Milwaukee metro counties than liberal Supreme Court candidates. Interesting enough, liberal Supreme Court candidates have tended to do better than Democrats in the Southwest part of the state.

I’ve always thought of Brown as a pretty good bellwether, but I could be wrong.

Brown is generally republican leaning in close statewide elections. I think Scott won it by 9 in 2018.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1247566877230055424?s=20

Was ~22% at the same time in 2016. Really hard to compare given the massive amounts of absentee ballots which are being processed throughout the day.

Comparison to 2019?

[Bidenworth2020]

Any indications as to how rural turnout is looking?

[Bidenworth2020]

It's pretty outrageous that Results won't be released until the April 13th! Even CA, who had 5 Times more Absentee Ballots managed to get Results up.

The WI GOP Party should petition an injunction to the WI SC demanding Results to be released!

It wasn't a state court that ruled the release date to be 4/13.

Are we going to get any sort of data tonight?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1247654138118356998?s=20

Is this Milwaukee?

[Bidenworth2020]

Any reports as to turnout in Milwaukee/WOW?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

[Bidenworth2020]

This doesn't mean much but random people who are aggregating county / city turnout numbers on twitter think that Karofsky did what she needed to do. But it's close. Especially because not everyone is reporting turnout figures.  

source?

[Bidenworth2020]

Not that it is super relevant, but PredictIt now has Karnofsky trading at 59 cents on the dollar.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558328273342464

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558329611288578

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558330810970112

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558331935031296

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558333029736448

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558334128672770

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558335219154944

[Bidenworth2020]

Two Lakeshore Milwaukee Villages did their own VBM, got really good return rates:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248680544910499841?s=20

Isn't this one of the fastest D-trending areas of Wisconsin besides Dane?

[Bidenworth2020]

So, correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the data we're getting is VERY good for Karofsky

I wouldn't get too optimistic. The rurals still look quite strong for Kelly.