MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Bidenworth2020]

If Cochran does retire and a special is set up to coincide with November 2018, I think its unlikely that Bryant appoints someone who is likely to run for the seat for a full-term.  I think we'll get a caretaker until then, and then I think it'll be Gregg Harper's if he wants it.  Delbert and Reeves are too invested in 2019 to change course now.

could bryant himself take it?

[Bidenworth2020]

Speaking of McDaniel: https://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/12/13/roy-moore-mississippi-fallout-chris-mcdaniel-cant-catch-break/948061001/

It sounds like Bannon is courting him and it's working.

I wonder what a Gene Taylor vs. McDaniel would look like


If the GOP nominates McDaniel and somehow manages to give Democrats another senator from the Deep South, I don't think I'm ever going to stop laughing

Yeah. And Presley's a pretty popular figure in northern Mississippi. The state has a higher black vote than Alabama so He's have more room for error with white voters.

Presley, Bredesen, O'Rourke, Graham, Evans... could be the return of the southern white Democrats next year. With Jeff Jackson in 2020 too.

In a perfect world, Mississippi will have Senators Presley/Mabus and Governor Hood by 2019.

I think Gene Taylor would win as well against McDaniel, the question is how he wins the primary

[Bidenworth2020]

Speaking of McDaniel: https://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/12/13/roy-moore-mississippi-fallout-chris-mcdaniel-cant-catch-break/948061001/

It sounds like Bannon is courting him and it's working.

I wonder what a Gene Taylor vs. McDaniel would look like


If the GOP nominates McDaniel and somehow manages to give Democrats another senator from the Deep South, I don't think I'm ever going to stop laughing

Yeah. And Presley's a pretty popular figure in northern Mississippi. The state has a higher black vote than Alabama so He's have more room for error with white voters.

Presley, Bredesen, O'Rourke, Graham, Evans... could be the return of the southern white Democrats next year. With Jeff Jackson in 2020 too.

In a perfect world, Mississippi will have Senators Presley/Mabus and Governor Hood by 2019.

I think Gene Taylor would win as well against McDaniel, the question is how he wins the primary

Especially considering he's a Republican now.

eh what are parties mean, 47%>0% with McDaniel

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/21/mississippi-senate-thad-cochran-future-in-doubt-308157

[Bidenworth2020]

I really think Palazzo is the best choice, as he is the establishment, while still unbearably conservative.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is McDaniels flipping over?

[Bidenworth2020]

Is McDaniels flipping over?

He hasn't confirmed yet, but I bet he's considering.

he'd be a true dumbass not to

[Bidenworth2020]

Espy releases poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/03/poll-mike-espy-leading-cindy-hyde-smith-chris-mcdaniel-senate-race/482437002/

The poll of 603 likely general election voters shows Espy leading with 34 percent, Hyde-Smith with 27 percent and McDaniel at 21 percent.

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35. His overall 34 percent in the poll included 63 percent of the African American vote. In its result summary to the campaign, Chism Strategies said historical vote patterns suggest Espy, if he's the only African American candidate, would carry 95 percent of that demographic in a general election.

The polling memo said Espy would need at least 22 percent of the "other" vote — largely white voters — but even then would need black voter turnout to be around 39 percent, which would match what happened in Alabama when Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore.

Mississippi's black voter age population is 35 percent. The 2016 black voter turnout was YY percent. At that turnout level and assuming Espy wins 95 percent of the black vote, Chism Strategies said he would need 28 percent of all other voters to win.

The poll also showed Espy with high name ID, 94 percent, and a 44 percent approval rating, including 33 percent approval among white voters. The poll was weighted at 35 percent African American voters.

pretty good numbers, even for an internal

[Bidenworth2020]

55-45 Hyde-Smith

[Bidenworth2020]

is this actually happening?

[Bidenworth2020]

welp, desoto looks like it is going back to earth.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'd call this for Hyde-Smith, but props to Espy for making it close.

[Bidenworth2020]

This is gonna be a long night.

you think so? why?