NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Pollster]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

[Pollster]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

I generally agree that winning a federal race in NH is an uphill battle for any Republican (although that really has little to do with Hassan being some strong incumbent — she isn’t), but I think you and others are seriously underestimating how competitive Nevada will be in 2022. I don’t buy for a second that Cortez Masto (or Mark Kelly, for that matter) will be heavily favored even in a very favorable environment for the party.

Besides, I think Sununu is certainly more skilled than Ayotte at reading his electorate and cultivating an independent/moderate/bipartisan brand. You don’t win statewide in NH by a 2-to-1 margin as a Republican if you don’t possess some major electoral/messaging skills. He also has a history of outperforming his pre-election polling even in D-leaning years, so I wouldn’t underestimate him if I was a D strategist. Joe Manchin isn’t the only elected official capable of that game.

I don't necessarily think Nevada will be an easy hold for D's - rather I think that the state's top-tier Republicans will be more attracted to the statewide row offices for both strategic (being able to run in a more targeted way against COVID regulations in a state practically wiped by them, among other things) and logistical (not having to run for re-election in a presidential year) reasons.

I agree with you that Sununu would probably be favored in a match-up today, though I do think you're far too hard on Hassan in general. My interest right now is seeing how he navigates the decision between safety or a modest gamble. Alternatively, his foot-dragging could be entirely for personal gain - I'm sure McConnell, Scott, and others will make more enticing promises the longer he holds out.

[Pollster]

Sununu is the one with the most Roe v. Wade risk. NH is a very pro choice state and he could drop fast if the court upheld the Mississippi law.

This is true, a Republican victory in New Hampshire requires the GOP candidate to win over a significant number (probably at least 1 in 3, if not 2 in 5) of pro-choice voters, as well as not lose too many anti-choice voters to the Democrat.

[Pollster]

Obviously not an endorsement (and even a Trump endorsement probably wouldn't be enough to place Bolduc on top on its own), but if Sununu gave up the governorship only to lose this Senate primary, it would be by far the funniest thing to happen in politics in a good long time.

[Pollster]

Never bet on a politician taking a risk when a clearly safe choice is also an option.

[Pollster]

Have to imagine that NHGOP internal polling must not look as good as conventional wisdom suggests if both Sununu and Ayotte are passing on this race.

Either that, or neither of them wants to risk being the 51st GOP vote and having to run for reelection in a Presidential year.

[Pollster]

Other interesting news: some Republicans are encouraging Matt Mowers to switch to the Senate race, now that Sununu, Ayotte, and Brown are out.

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458142489706209288?s=21

Honestly I am quite surprised no one is mentioning Frank Edelblut here who is currently the Education Commissioner in New Hampshire giving how Youngkin managed to make Education a Top Issue in the VA Governor Race.

LET'S GO FRANK, DO IT!

Education is generally much more significant in non-federal races, he'd be a much more suitable candidate for Governor if Sununu had gone for Senate.

[Pollster]

I try to avoid conspiracy theories but will just come out and say it: there is something deeply, deeply suspicious about the chorus of top-tier Republicans ruling out this race in rapid succession.

[Pollster]

NRSC affiliate going up with a last-ditch effort to stop Bolduc/boost Morse.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/31/republican-super-pac-2-million-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054402?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000161-0ed9-d62b-a3f5-deddd8540000&nlid=630318

[Pollster]

NRSC affiliate going up with a last-ditch effort to stop Bolduc/boost Morse.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/31/republican-super-pac-2-million-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054402?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000161-0ed9-d62b-a3f5-deddd8540000&nlid=630318

Too late

Not necessarily - have heard that engagement with this race is very low and more of the primary voters' attention is on the Congressional races, particularly Mowers/Leavitt.

[Pollster]

And like clockwork...the Democrats are going in.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/02/dem-super-pac-republican-new-hampshire-senate-primary-00054690

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1578472602401546240?s=20&t=U9SvtzxFw...