2020 New York Redistricting

[Pollster]

Giving Stefanik a Republican sink is politically a win/win for Democrats - makes it easier to maximize their advantages elsewhere, preserves Stefanik as an effective fundraising foil, and Stefanik's rapid rise in leadership/influence ensures that federal money will continue to roll into the state.

[Pollster]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

[Pollster]

The thing about state legislative districts is that in the overwhelming majority of states (critically not all, but most) they contain much small populations than Congressional districts - often much smaller - and flipping them requires persuading far fewer voters. There are many places where the same investment needed to make a Trump +5 Congressional seat a tossup could flip a Trump +10 state legislative seat relatively easily (assuming candidate quality/a competent campaign).