IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

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Wait, is she related to Chet Culver?

If she's not...what are the odds?

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Probably Lt. Gov Adam Gregg - very young, could hold the seat for decades, held Tom Miller to one of his weaker wins, won statewide in a tough environment in 2018

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Theresa Greenfield and Eddie Mauro are likely candidates

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Theresa Greenfield and Eddie Mauro are likely candidates

I don't know much about those two, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Another Democratic Senate majority may never happen at this rate. MTTreasurer may end up being right after all.

Both are good candidates - the IA-3 Democratic primary last cycle was very much an embarrassment of riches.

Greenfield in particular walked away from a very tough situation looking very good.

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The DSCC would be foolish to target this over CO, AZ, NC, and GA.

Which means, I'm sure, that they will.

It's a far cheaper state than those four.

This, and a strong Senate operation will help both up and down the ballot.

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No numbers yet, but Franken running ads suggests he's got a good amount of cash. This could be an interesting primary.

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Can we merge with the megathread

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I was on a call with the DSCC around February 2019 and was astonished when they said they considered Ernst the second-most vulnerable Republican. It's beginning to look like they were on to something, and I can't particularly figure out why.

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Mauro's hyper-negative campaign goes against everything we know about the preferences of Iowa Democrats. I suspect he doesn't have many native Iowans or seasoned Iowa strategists running his campaign.

Franken probably has the best shot at an upset, but Greenfield still probably wins rather easily.

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I mentioned this in another thread, but I think the appeal of mainstream, "average person" candidates who aren't actively seeking a national profile is being heavily underrated this cycle, especially after a midterm cycle and anticlimactic Presidential primary that were both largely driven by viral moments and personal celebrity.