KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

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Kobach can absolutely win this primary. His popularity with the Kansas Republican base is almost always underestimated by pundits with no experience in Kansas politics, and while he did barely win the primary in 2018 its important to remember that he defeated a well-liked incumbent (with 20% of the vote going to other candidates) despite running an atrocious campaign and not getting Trump's endorsement until the last minute. His relentless harping about immigration will also be much more significant to GOP primary voters in a federal primary than a state one (where it was already pretty significant).

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Yeah, especially after Sondland's testimony today, Pompeo looks like his star is dimming rapidly.

In hindsight, had he given into McConnell and gotten in this race in the Spring, he would be running as a somewhat popular former Secretary of State and would have avoided this entire Ukraine mess entirely.

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What's the filing deadline in KS? Theoretically, the GOP candidate could withdraw in the months before the election, as happened in 2016 when Bayh made a late entry into IN-Sen. But I doubt any GOPer would be willing step aside after the primary only because Pompeo too late realized he made a miscalculation by sticking with Trump.

The filing deadline in KS isn't until June 2020 - lots of time for sudden changes.

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Kansas hasn't changed, it remains a state where a majority of voters default to the Republican candidate but a larger than average number of those voters are highly persuadable to Democrats under favorable conditions.

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Kansas hasn't changed, it remains a state where a majority of voters default to the Republican candidate but a larger than average number of those voters are highly persuadable to Democrats under favorable conditions.

Right, and the evidence suggests that most Kansans are more persuadable on a state level than a federal level.

Absolutely - I've worked for and been deeply involved with the Kansas Democrats for almost 15 years now and state level races have always proved to be better investments. Orman's, Davids', and Davis' strong federal runs in 2014 and 2018 have gone a long way towards bridging the gap between the two, with Kris Kobach poised to play an influential role as well.

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Wasn't Wagle the legislative machinist who enabled the Brownback disaster? She'd also be a terrible candidate.

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I see why McConnell / Republican party leaders are still attempting to recruit Pompeo for Senate, but I feel like Republicans can prevent Kobach from being the nominee if they get Trump to endorse Roger Marshall in the primary. Marshall seems like a pretty generic Republican who could win in Kansas, and if he had Trump's backing, he'd have a good shot at winning the primary and retaining the seat in the general election. In this scenario, Republicans hold the seat, and Trump gets to retain a Secretary of State that he likes during an election year (it could be difficult to confirm a new Sec of State in an election year). I'm curious why Republicans haven't gone with this strategy?

The pause with regard to Marshall also puzzles me. On paper, Marshall is the exact type of Republican McConnell wants in the Senate. Hell, he's the only Republican I can think of in recent memory who defeated an incumbent from the center in a primary.

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The similarities between Kobach and Moore essentially end at their toxicity in a general election. Kobach is toxic due to policy positions and a political style that repel anybody who isn't in agreement with his worldview, but are magnetic to those who do. Moore has those positions and style but his toxicity obviously runs deeper and is repelling even to many who would otherwise be inclined to support him.

He remains popular among the base (the short-lived reports of him being considered as Sessions' replacement certainly helped) and while his stock is damaged from his awful 2018 run, losing a gubernatorial election in Kansas after eight years of unpopular Republican leadership is a lot different that losing a U.S. Senate election in Alabama to replace a beloved Republican. Kobach will be tough to beat in a GOP primary.

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If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

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If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

There are multiple southwestern counties that are majority Hispanic/Latinx with adult populations of 20,000+ that average 15-20% turnout, often less. These are mostly based in micropolitan areas like Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal - among others - that are well-concentrated.

There is a valuable long game here. Activating these new voters puts multiple state legislative districts in play, impacts redistricting, and of course provides votes at the top of the ticket that could be influential in a potentially tight statewide race.

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Marshall statistically tied with Kobach in what is essentially an internal from a PAC supporting him that did not test the entire field, and at essentially the same standing as he was in the last poll we saw. Not particularly encouraging.

Good for the average, but will need to see other independent numbers.

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Looks like Wagle is the first to go up on TV.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1221827915094118401?s=20

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Plumbing executive Bob Hamilton joins the GOP primary.

Hamilton has hired Axiom Strategies - that's political knife-fighter Jeff Roe.

Roe is a genius, and this is his backyard. If Hamilton is a competent candidate he could be a threat.

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The underestimating of Kobach's strength among Kansas GOP primary voters here is stunning.

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The poor fundraising for both Kobach and Marshall is telling an interesting story here. Kobach is probably having trouble convincing donors he can win the general, and Marshall is probably having trouble convincing donors he can win the primary.

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New poll:
https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1260601602496495618?s=20

I'm pretty certain this is an internal, but still good news for Marshall.

Yes, Public Opinion Strategies is a Republican polling firm that Marshall has hired.

I have doubts that Kobach is in the 20's, though wouldn't be surprised if Marshall were in the lead right now. Hamilton does appear to be growing, interesting to see if that holds.

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It's strange that party leadership is so persistent on getting Pompeo even though, in theory, they should be satisfied with Marshall. They cited his fundraising in the Politico piece, yet it seems like a given that big Republican donors would open their wallets to any non-Kobach who wins the nomination. I can't think of a single reason they'd have for not getting behind him after Pompeo's multiple definitive no's, unless they are aware of some private weakness or skeleton.

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It's strange that party leadership is so persistent on getting Pompeo even though, in theory, they should be satisfied with Marshall. They cited his fundraising in the Politico piece, yet it seems like a given that big Republican donors would open their wallets to any non-Kobach who wins the nomination. I can't think of a single reason they'd have for not getting behind him after Pompeo's multiple definitive no's, unless they are aware of some private weakness or skeleton.

I could be wrong, but my best guess is that Republican private polling isn’t looking all that good here, including their numbers for a Marshall vs. Bollier match-up (Marshall’s probably ahead, but it’s much closer than they would like, and he’s not outperforming Kobach by as much as most people here believe).

I'd agree. Also possible that Marshall is probably not exactly beloved by the GOP base, considering his political career started by ousting an incumbent from the center.

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Wagle’s official statement implied that Kobach on the ballot poses a threat to the state legislature GOP (which, of course, Wagle has a vested interest in avoiding).

Wouldn’t be surprised if the state party promised her their support for a gubernatorial run against Kelly in exchange for this.

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With Wagle and Pompeo not running, none of the GOP candidates have any ties to the Wichita area. Sedgwick County usually votes pretty close to the statewide results, so this is not great news for the party.

Same with Topeka, a much swingier area where the Republican conversation will most likely be dominated by Watkins and La Turner.

Bollier would, of course, be smart to start spending aggressively on advertising in the Wichita and Topeka media markets to introduce herself positively and potentially build up leads in the areas as Kobach and Marshall inevitably go nuclear on each other.

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https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270467557116596226?s=21

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I would guess the race is tight between Kobach and Marshall, as it was between Kobach and Colyer. The lack of recent internal polling from either campaign or any of their allies points to this as well.

Gun to my head, I'd stick with Kobach, who should never be underestimated among Kansas Republicans. There seems to be genuinely minimal enthusiasm for Marshall, among both the party brass and voters.

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Really stunning how awful Republican fundraising has been in this race so far.

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Excellent writeup on this race.

The Senate race in Kansas is a microcosm of the political woes facing Republicans these days. It features an ideologically extreme, Trumpian candidate; a party institutionally incapable of tending to its best interests; and a Democratic challenger trying to exploit the GOP’s utter collapse in the suburbs as she tries to become the first Democratic senator elected from the Sunflower State in nearly 90 years.

The primary, scheduled for Aug. 4, is the latest high-stakes test of whether Republican voters will cater to their base’s worst excesses or nominate a mainstream candidate capable of winning a solidly Republican state. What’s most remarkable about the contest is that the so-called GOP establishment, after raising warnings about former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, has been incapable of rallying behind an electable alternative.

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Trump has privately indicated he won't endorse anyone.

The most interesting aspect of this article in my view is that Ted Cruz is actively working against Marshall, but seems to not want to publicly align himself with Kobach.