AL-Emerson: Moore +9

[Pollster]

Real bad news for Jones here is that Moore's lead is now outside the margin of error for the first time in their series (I believe) since the allegations were made public. The race seems to be very clearly moving away from him, and the necessary polling error needed for him to win is getting larger and larger.

[Pollster]

Is Emerson still landline-only?

They have added an online component and weigh their results 50/50 landline/online.

[Pollster]

Is Emerson still landline-only?

They have added an online component and weigh their results 50/50 landline/online.

I hope they didn't just add a GCS and call it a day.

The methodology in their press release states that they used SSI, which is more or less the industry standard.

[Pollster]

Looks like the undoing here was weighting the sample by results of the 2016 election - an incredibly, incredibly misguided move in projecting turnout for a special election.

[Pollster]

Also worth noting that pushing undecided voters to pick a candidate is an incredibly risky move in polling (undecided voters are more volatile, by nature are not committed to a candidate, and are hit-or-miss regarding whether or not they actually turn out) that likely shifted the results of Emerson's tracking polls of this race towards Moore.