Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here is the Bottom Line:
The Governor Race this year reminds me a bit of the Saxby Chambliss/Dean Martin Race in 2008. A Democrat simply won't get 50+x in the Regular Election. This thing will go into a Runoff where Kemp will win easily.

Everything always happens until it doesn't.

Stacey Abrams isn't Jim Martin, we are in a completely different political climate from 2008, and GA's electorate has only gotten more diverse.

[Rookie Yinzer]

One of my classmates from college shared her wait in line in Henry County this morning.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1053842647390003200

[Rookie Yinzer]

Does anybody know which counties had early voting today? The state only mandates the second Saturday (next Saturday), so I'm assuming pretty much all of the votes that came in today came from heavily-Democratic turf - or were mail ballots.

DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Fulton, Clayton, Paulding, and Muscogee are all I could confirm. None of the other "big" counties had early voting and I know none of the other Metro counties had it either so that should be it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia Votes now has a feature that breaks down the vote by Congressional District as well as State House and Senate Districts.

Unsurprisingly, GA-6 and GA-7 have the largest increase in votes vs. 2014 as well as the largest percentage of non-2014 voters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1054202123771101184

[Rookie Yinzer]

Didn't Hillary lose GA-7 by 7 or 8 points?

I also just read Stacey will be in Thomaston, Columbus, Americus, Albany, Thomasville, Valdosta, Carrollton, Newnan, and Fayetteville on Wednesday and Thursday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

So apparently Stacy Abrams burned the state flag during a college protest.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/politics/georgia-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-stacey-abrams-burned-flag-during-protest-at-state-capitol.amp

You go girl!

This isn’t landing. Even Brian Kemp’s press secretary declined to comment. In my opinion it’s not an argument worth having for a myriad of reasons. We’ll see if he brings it up tonight at the debate.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Flag burning is a notoriously difficult topic for both parties to talk about since it really serves as a wedge issue for both of them - I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take hold.

True, but there's a world of difference between burning the U.S. flag and burning a state flag (one that included the Confederate battle flag).  People aren't that emotionally connected to their state flags in most states; there are probably a few exceptions, like Texas.  I doubt that many Georgians could even describe our current state flag.

It's been 16 hours and Brian Kemp hasn't said a peep. They aren't going with this. The Confederate symbol is a divisive topic and Kemp himself voted to change the flag in 2003. If he doesn't bring it up at the debate then it's not going anywhere.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055075245743374336

Early vote returns must be brutal for Kemp. Now Drumpf is mentioning Stacey by name.

[Rookie Yinzer]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

[Rookie Yinzer]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

Are you only working in Newton, or have you canvassed nearby counties too?

Rockdale, Henry, and southern Gwinnett. The people in our canvass universe are people who would normally not be tuned in to a midterm. Many of those who answer the door are excited for Stacey and taking their families to the polls with them. These are people I know the polls aren't considering or thinking about.

[Rookie Yinzer]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

How does that breakdown compare to previous elections?

I'm not sure. I just have access on VB to the information for the 2018 general election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

Clinton 2016 + Twiggs, Wilkinson, Peach, Chattahooche, Quitman, Webster, Baker, Mitchell, and Early.

Screven, Wilkes, and Meriwether are tossups.

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

He's not doing anything but relying on the partisan lean of Forsyth County to bail him out. Bourdeaux is outraising him by a good bit and is on the air here, one of my friends has been canvassing for her in Lawrenceville, her campaign has a very disciplined field program. I would bet money on Bourdeaux before McBath. I still think both will fall short unfortunately.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

Clinton 2016 + Twiggs, Wilkinson, Peach, Chattahooche, Quitman, Webster, Baker, Mitchell, and Early.

Screven, Wilkes, and Meriwether are tossups.

Well, you’re certainly bullish on Abrams' odds. I assume you simply forgot to mention Dooly, right?

I did. Add that too.

All of the counties I mentioned are counties Abrams campaign plan to win.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

I get it is really rep, but what is so crazy about this?

There’s nothing crazy about it. I think it’s cool and brave and a testament to how modern the Abrams campaign is.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Rockdale, Henry, Clayton, Muscogee, Richmond, Bibb, and Chatham all have Sunday voting this week. I hope Abrams runs up the score big then.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Neato

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1056380968423047168

...and we still have Souls to the Polls tomorrow!

Yes! Stacey will be having a huge rally in downtown Atlanta with Common and Andrew Young tomorrow. Let's close this last weekend of Early Voting out strong!

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1056388813558333441
Yassss

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump will host a rally for Kemp in Macon next Sunday.

So Abrams is doing well and has the GOP shook. Great!

[Rookie Yinzer]

The fact that a mere 25,000 voters showed up yesterday is very disappointing.

It was double the number of people who voted on Sunday in 2014 and only a handful of counties were open, some of them for only about 3-4 hours. Those numbers are good IMO. Hopefully black participation ratchets up in this last week as many counties open additional EV locations.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Obama is coming to Atlanta on Friday:

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1056982444195360770

What a difference four years makes.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

No he won't. He has no plans for healthcare and has every intention on signing a RFRA bill and turning back every criminal justice reform Nathan Deal championed. Fortunately it will be Abrams getting that 50.5% on Election Night.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did Carter lead in any poll the last week of the 2014 election?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Unfortunately, no county will have weekend voting this week. Friday is it for everyone statewide.