Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GAKas]

Congrats Governor Brian Kemp?

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Seriously, what a stupid-ass move for her to make.  That would be like if Joe Donnelly said "Hoosiers shouldn't have to husk corn or make RVs for a living."

Okay this is definitely a quote taken out of context (ffs the article links to a 5 second video clip). It's already been known, based on her stump speeches, that she wants Georgians to have options to "newer" job sectors (renewable energy, coding, etc.) rather than only be limited to agriculture or hospitality sectors which are some of GA's biggest sectors.  

Kemp is really reaching at this point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Congrats Governor Brian Kemp?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seriously, what a stupid-ass move for her to make.  That would be like if Joe Donnelly said "Hoosiers shouldn't have to husk corn or make RVs for a living."

Okay this is definitely a quote taken out of context (ffs the article links to a 5 second video clip). It's already been known, based on her stump speeches, that she wants Georgians to have options to "newer" job sectors (renewable energy, coding, etc.) rather than only be limited to agriculture or hospitality sectors which are some of GA's biggest sectors.  

Kemp is really reaching at this point.

When has Republicans taking an opponents' quote out of context ever not worked before?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Another 85k ballots cast/received today. Looks like 78-79k were in-person.

[libertpaulian]

Another 85k ballots cast/received today. Looks like 78-79k were in-person.

Are most of them in Metro ATL/Savannah/Macon/Athens/Augusta/Black Belt?

[henster]

What is the likelihood Abrams does worse than Hillary with whites?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What is the likelihood Abrams does worse than Hillary with whites?

None at all. Even if she loses she can't possibly do any worse then Hillary.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kemp needs to be in prison for his fascist voting tactics!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

#Throwkempinjail #LockHimUp

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 84,749 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 296,610 votes: 11.63% of total 2014 turnout.

Today's total exceeded yesterday's (which exceeded the day prior). Early vote totals are 197% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 215% yesterday).

The white share of the electorate increased by more than a point since yesterday; still a large increase but slowing down due to the total number of votes already banked. Nevertheless, with the electorate that voted today being 63% white, 27% black and 10% other, it was whiter than yesterday's (62-28-10). The female share of the electorate basically remained unchanged, but the 65+ share continues to drop at a rapid rate (due to more 30-64 year-olds voting). In short, the electorate (again) got whiter and younger compared to yesterday.

Code:

White	174462	58.8% (+1.6)
Black	90275	30.4% (-1.3)
Latino	3636          1.2% (-0.1)
Asian	3766	         1.3%  (-0.2)
Other	24471        8.3%  (0.0)

Female	157158	53.0% (-0.1)
Male		133767 	45.1% (+0.1)
Unknown	5685	        1.9%   (0.0)

18-29	 14419	4.9%   (-0.1)
30-39	 17801	6.0%   (+0.2)
40-49	 29650	10.0%   (+0.4)
50-64        87886	29.6%  (+0.6)
65+         141412      47.7%  (-1.0)
Unknown	  5442       1.8%   (0.0)

[Adam Griffin]

The contraction continues (Oct 10-17; beginning on October 15, this includes AIP votes despite the mislabeling):

[Adam Griffin]

Just wanted to point out that yesterday (or possibly today, depending on the exact count), more mail ballots have been requested in GA than were returned in 2012 or 2016.

Looking at the SoS spreadsheet and comparing to McDonald's numbers, there have been approximately 433,000 "requests" for ballots in this election: 223k in the form of in-person early voting and 210k in the form of mail ballot requests. That puts the total request figure at 45% of all ballots cast in 2014.

For reference, there were 208k mail ballots returned in 2016 and 212k in 2012 (and 107k in 2014). Certainly not all of the requested ballots will be returned (as of right now, that figure is only at about 73k), but with plenty of time for people to still request them and with thousands more applications & ballots coming in each day, it's likely a returned VBM record will occur here, both as a percentage and in absolutes.

[Adam Griffin]

Abrams is coming back to Dalton tomorrow, and is also visiting Rome, Cartersville, Hiram and Douglasville tomorrow as well. I'm not going to be able to attend (unfortunately we're scheduled for noon) but I'm hoping it's a great crowd. Should be able to get some photos and the like of the event.

[libertpaulian]

Abrams is coming back to Dalton tomorrow, and is also visiting Rome, Cartersville, Hiram and Douglasville tomorrow as well. I'm not going to be able to attend (unfortunately we're scheduled for noon) but I'm hoping it's a great crowd. Should be able to get some photos and the like of the event.

How do the voting stats look today?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Abrams is coming back to Dalton tomorrow, and is also visiting Rome, Cartersville, Hiram and Douglasville tomorrow as well. I'm not going to be able to attend (unfortunately we're scheduled for noon) but I'm hoping it's a great crowd. Should be able to get some photos and the like of the event.

Where in Rome is she visiting?

[Adam Griffin]

Abrams is coming back to Dalton tomorrow, and is also visiting Rome, Cartersville, Hiram and Douglasville tomorrow as well. I'm not going to be able to attend (unfortunately we're scheduled for noon) but I'm hoping it's a great crowd. Should be able to get some photos and the like of the event.

Where in Rome is she visiting?

Schroeder's New Deli, 2:30 - 3:15

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 86,308 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 382,918 votes: 15.01% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 197% yesterday).

The white share of the electorate increased by 0.8 points since yesterday; slowing down due to the total number of votes already banked. The electorate that voted today was 62% white, 28% black and 10% other (it was 63-27-10 yesterday; 62-28-10 the day prior and 60-30-10 on the first day or early voting). The gender balance seems to be solidifying as well.

Code:

White	228332	59.6% (+0.8)
Black	114110	29.8% (-0.6)
Latino	4432          1.2% (0.0)
Asian	4507	         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	31537        8.2%  (-0.1)

Female	203337	53.1% (+0.1)
Male		172167 	45.0% (-0.1)
Unknown	7414	        1.9%   (0.0)

18-29	 18882	4.9%   (0.0)
30-39	 23898	6.2%   (+0.2)
40-49	 39658	10.4%   (+0.4)
50-64       115250	30.1%  (+0.5)
65+         178105      46.5%  (-0.8)
Unknown	  7125       1.9%   (+0.1)

[Adam Griffin]

Two observations:

#1: combined requested and returned ballots are already at 55% of 2014's turnout. Additionally, look at these stats compared to 2016:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1053111387084546050

#2:



Not crazy about those figures in #2. The thing is, if this election plays out like 2014, then beginning next Saturday, the winds should begin to shift back in our favor. If this plays out like 2016, however, then it'll only get whiter from here. Thing is, we can't be for sure which is which (especially given point #1 - turnout is approaching presidential levels in early voting, which makes any reversion that much more difficult).

[Adam Griffin]

And of course, who knows...this might not be bad at all: it could be angry white Democrats turning out in greater numbers due to the national climate, which completely changes the math. But this is Georgia, so you'll forgive me if I remain skeptical on that front for now.

Additionally, because of more people early voting (and assuming final turnout doesn't reflect presidential levels), the difference between EV & ED could be neutralized to some degree if more white conservatives are voting now (in 2014, there was a 11-point gap; Deal +1 in EV and Deal +12 in ED), making ED less influential on the final margin.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Out of the 86,308 people who voted in Georgia on Thursday, 24,684 (23% of the total) were in either Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton, or Clarke counties. Those counties are picked out with the assumption that voters in those counties are generally a bit more likely (to varying degrees) to be liberals than elsewhere in GA.

Of the 24,684 voters in those 6 counties, 10,258 (41.6%) were white, 10,854 (44.0%) were black, and the remaining 3,572 were Asian/Hispanic/Other (14.5%).

Of the 61,624 voters in the rest of Georgia, 43,612 (70.8%) were white, 12,981 (21.1%) were black, and the remaining 5,031 were Asian/Hispanic/Other (8.2%).


Turnout seems to have been particularly gangbusters in Fulton County, where there were 11,287 votes cast on Thursday (5,329 by whites, 4,139 by African Americans).

As a comparison, let's compare Fulton County to nearby Cherokee County (heavily white and Republican North Atlanta exurbs/suburbs). In 2016, there were 439k votes cast in Fulton and 113k votes cast in Cherokee. That is a little under 4 times as many votes in Fulton as in Cherokee in 2016...

So, you might think, that probably there would be a bit less than 4x as many early votes today in Fulton as in Cherokee counties...

But the actual numbers are 11,287 in Fulton, as compared to 1,442 in Cherokee...

That is almost 8x more in Fulton... So in comparison to Cherokee, Fulton is voting early at about double the rate (8x instead of 4x) that you might expect based on overall 2016 turnout.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Those Fulton numbers are crazy. They do have 20 early voting locations at present that will be open 7 days a week. I hope more Democrats get to the polls this weekend due to being off of work and Black churches having “Souls to the Polls” events.

DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett will be opening up more locations soon so I hope to see some increase in participation from non-white and younger voters soon.

These numbers statewide are just wild. I can only hope this is Stacey Abrams’s vision coming to fruition.

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

I decided to drill down a bit more into the white vote, stacking its current distribution against the 2014 white Democratic support for Carter in each county. My independent analysis built off of county-by-county models also came to the same conclusion as the exit polls: Carter got 22.9% of the vote in 2014 (among all voters).

Stacking the current proportions of the white vote by county against each county's white Democratic support from 2014 gives us virtually the same number in the early vote right now: 22.7% Abrams. Obviously there are going to be counties where she does better or worse than Carter among whites, but for it to average out almost to the decimal point in comparison to 2014 suggests there is no statistically-significant shift in terms of which types of white communities are voting.

Granted, the early vote is likely more Democratic among whites than it'll be once ED is counted (making this an uneven comparison in some respects), but this is mainly an exercise to see if there are any real proportional shifts from areas with differing levels of white support. It's also a demonstration of what the likely margin would be if the current racial composition ended up being the final totals on Election Day.

Of course, rural whites in one part of the state could be voting at higher numbers, offsetting lower voting rates in another rural white part of the state (and so forth), but I would expect to see some shift of significance if there was something to that. The only way I could see this being reasonably off is if white Democrats in every part of the state are off-setting white Republicans in every part of the state at a 1:1 ratio.

Plugging that 23% into a few different scenarios of support (including 2014 baseline; first scenario) produces the following results (assuming 2% for Metz):

Black %	Latino %	Asian %	Other %	Result
90%	65%	60%	60%	Kemp +4.4
95%	65%	60%	60%	Kemp +1.5
95%	75%	75%	70%	Abrams +0.8

[Adam Griffin]

This is a day-to-day comparison (rather than a raw vote-to-raw vote comparison; which may be more relevant), and makes me feel a bit better:

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1053281487628525568

[Tender Branson]

Black senior citizens ordered off Georgia bus taking them to vote

+

https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-secretary-state-black-girl-denied-vote-1176673

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GA is a failed 3rd World state with an election system that exhibits institutional racism and that's because of Republicans like Kemp being in charge. Because GA is seing a record number of Dem-leaning people move to the state, they get crazy and try even more to block Blacks and others from voting. Unbelievable and unimaginable in a European country. I hope Kemp and Co. get destroyed in 3 weeks, so that the Governor, Lt. Governor and SoS are manned and womanned with Democrats who can reform the election system so that everyone can vote without problems ...

[2016]

Here is the Bottom Line:
The Governor Race this year reminds me a bit of the Saxby Chambliss/Dean Martin Race in 2008. A Democrat simply won't get 50+x in the Regular Election. This thing will go into a Runoff where Kemp will win easily.