MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Rookie Yinzer]

I swear to God, if we get a Dixiecrat renaissance out of nowhere...

You can probably thank Trump.

[Rookie Yinzer]

A hypothetical Sen. Presley would immediately up for re-election during a presidential year?

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Mississippi Democratic primarh electorate 2008 was about 2/3’s black. The Democratic voter base is probably even  more black now, so I don’t see how Shelton can siphon enough black votes from Epsy or enough white votes from CHS to make it to the run-off. He’s the mayor of a small city of 40,000, hardly an influential political player.

Really? Exit polls put it at 50% AA in 2008 and 71%(!) in 2016. But yeah he can't compete against Espy's high name ID, Clinton connection, etc.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This race is not close. Only white liberal elites in bubbles could possibly think Mississippi whites will be swayed from their hyper tribal political behavior because of some racist remarks. 90% of whites in Mississippi will be saying worse at Thanksgiving dinner.

The only reason Roy Moore lost was because he was credibly accused of raping/molesting/pursuing teenage white girls. You take that out and leave his abhorrent anti-LGBT and anti-black comments he wins by double digits.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Comparisons to Tennessee are worthy, but it must be noted that the Tennessee electorate (according to flawed exit polls, but still worth a look) was 13% Black, whereas in Mississippi it was 33%. Turnout will be key.

Doesn’t matter because the racist Crypt Keeper will get 85% of the white vote and they will make up 2/3 of the electorate. Already over 50% no matter what.

[Rookie Yinzer]

That should net her a few thousand more votes.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This race is not close. Only white liberal elites in bubbles could possibly think Mississippi whites will be swayed from their hyper tribal political behavior because of some racist remarks. 90% of whites in Mississippi will be saying worse at Thanksgiving dinner.

The only reason Roy Moore lost was because he was credibly accused of raping/molesting/pursuing teenage white girls. You take that out and leave his abhorrent anti-LGBT and anti-black comments he wins by double digits.

What is elitist about hoping people will rise above their worst impulses even when you know it’s ultimately unlikely?  I think you’re mistaking optimism, hopefulness, and idealism for elitism.  I mean, I hope you’d agree there’s nothing elitist about hoping a racist loses a Senate race.  And even if that was elitist, wouldn’t African-American elites living in the same bubble logically be expected to share the same view?  Why would someone’s skin color effect whether they thought Espy could win (btw, it sounded like you were using “white” in a pejorative way which...well...I’m pretty sure many folks here would consider it racist if someone started complaining about “black liberal elites”)? 

I don’t have contempt for whites. It’s a fact that many white liberals are completely ignorant to how rampant racism and hatred is outside of their liberal bastions. I’m not mistaking anything—- I am in several organizations where I’ve had push back on tackling certain issues because the alleged white progressives I was dealing with didn’t think it was a problem. That’s not optimism that’s ignorance and elitism. I’ve seen tweets and think pieces handwringing about Cindy’s behavior like it’s actually going to matter. White southerners are hyper partisan out of hatred and contempt for black folks. It is ridiculous to think that the state that still has the Confederate emblem in their flag and where the people who killed Emmit Till, Medgar Evers, Cheney, Goodman, and Schwerner are secretly celebrated around white dinner tables are going to vote against the crypt keeper because of her comments. If anything it’s making her more popular.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's not reality. It's also a bad look for everyone to stereotype MS so badly that every white person there is a racist and this is helping her.

Like... have you been to Mississippi? LOL. You will be hard pressed to find any white people in Mississippi that think Jefferson Davis is a bad person. That's a problem.

Hyde-Smith will comfortably carry the white vote by 70 points and don't expect #moderate #sensible white women to save Espy either. They have vested interest in keeping white supremacy strong in the South. Who do yall think raised the white men who are about to give Hyde-Smith 90 percent of their vote? LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

TX is a majority minority state, why aren't TX whites freaking out more?

First, TX has awful turn out rates among voters who would be favorable to the Democratic Party. Second don't Republicans win the male Latino vote in this state? Why would TX whites freak out when they have no reason to? They have a solid GOP coalition. MS whites don't have that. If just a few whites fall to the other side combined with the <90 percent support from blacks then they lose power.
 

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It's not absurd.

Is it a coincidence that the state most hostile to Civil Rights was Mississippi which has always had the largest black population by percentage?

Is it coincidence that places in the South that are/were universally white were less Democratic when the Dems hated blacks and were the last to turn Republican when the South turned against the Democratic Party?

There is absolutely a correlation between white partisanship in the South and the amount of blacks that live around them. With so many blacks in the South politics are heavily racialized in ways it's not in other parts of the country. It's why whites in Kansas could pull the lever for Kelly to keep a corrupt Secretary of State out of the Governor's mansion but whites in Georgia could not stomach to do the same for Stacey Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

All the evidence post-2016 points to mediocre-to-abysmal black turnout, whether we look at special elections or this month's general election. The one exception is AL-Sen, which had months of statewide organizing and millions of dollars pumped into it to make such a thing happen (and even then, 60% of the swing from Clinton's margin of loss to Jones' margin of victory was on the backs of white voters).

Unless there is an unprecedented stealth op being conducted by national Democratic orgs in the state, people with hope in this are setting themselves up for a massive letdown. Don't forget that Democrats also retook the House, which undoubtedly will have repercussions on Democratic enthusiasm (look at the 2008 GA runoff for evidence of how quickly that enthusiasm dissipated post-GE). Losing by 15 would be a good result at this point.

Is there even any dense majority black areas to organize in other than Jackson? I just know there's no field operation that can be effective in the Mississippi Delta, not only because the area is so rural, but the people there are living in crippling poverty and those communities need more than a black candidate being shoved in their face to go vote. Espy is pretty underwhelming. He may lose worse than the 12 points I initially predicted.

[Rookie Yinzer]

All the evidence post-2016 points to mediocre-to-abysmal black turnout, whether we look at special elections or this month's general election. The one exception is AL-Sen, which had months of statewide organizing and millions of dollars pumped into it to make such a thing happen (and even then, 60% of the swing from Clinton's margin of loss to Jones' margin of victory was on the backs of white voters).

Unless there is an unprecedented stealth op being conducted by national Democratic orgs in the state, people with hope in this are setting themselves up for a massive letdown. Don't forget that Democrats also retook the House, which undoubtedly will have repercussions on Democratic enthusiasm (look at the 2008 GA runoff for evidence of how quickly that enthusiasm dissipated post-GE). Losing by 15 would be a good result at this point.

Is there even any dense majority black areas to organize in other than Jackson? I just know there's no field operation that can be effective in the Mississippi Delta, not only because the area is so rural, but the people there are living in crippling poverty and those communities need more than a black candidate being shoved in their face to go vote. Espy is pretty underwhelming. He may lose worse than the 12 points I initially predicted.

I'm willing to profess my ignorance (I've never been to the Deep South) but how different is the Delta from heavily black areas of rural GA?

Different in what way?

[Rookie Yinzer]

LMAO! Nice find.

"You don't like black people?"
"Not much"
"Why not?"
"I just don't"

"The government don't give me nothin!"
"You get food stamps!"
"Yeah but I deserve food stamps!"

"I'd rather go broke and starve than vote against my beliefs"

I just really wish Atlas would stop pretending that there is any thought process in minds of voters when they go to the ballot box. These people are robots who will vote against stuff they benefit from over and over again just so they can "hurt" black people. They're voting for the white racist who likes to dress up as a Confederate soldier and no amount of finger-wagging from out of touch liberals in DC and New York is going to change that.

[Rookie Yinzer]

At least the robots on the Democratic side aren't voting in white nationalist bigots who want to take money away from Social Security that millions of Americans spent their whole lives paying into.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Mike Espy has no chance of winning.

For many White Mississippians, the fact that they could potentially be represented by a Black man is reason enough to turnout and vote.

Yeah. This will be called as soon as the polls close. The lady with the meth teeth is going to kill it among whites. Dare I say she’ll break past the usual threshold of 85 percent with them? LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is only going to help Hyde-Smith. Mississippi voters will read "white supremacist" and will want to vote for her (assuming Mississippi voters know how to read, which hasn't been proven yet).

Most of Mississippi voters (including those who actually went to undergrad/postgrad) think colleges are where their children go to be brainwashed by the liberal elite. Her article will only motivate the butthurt neo-Confederates. This race just puts a spotlight on how truly f--ked up this state is. It's sad.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like Espy wasn't the best candidate here, this could've been a real race with Presley.

Black voters wouldn't have come out for him. Mississippi is unwinnable for federal office with its current electorate makeup.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like Espy wasn't the best candidate here, this could've been a real race with Presley.

Black voters wouldn't have come out for him. Mississippi is unwinnable for federal office with its current electorate makeup.

Well black voters came out for Doug Jones and Smith's racism would bring black voters out anyways.

LOL. The other candidate being racist does not get black people to the polls. If it did Hillary would be President.

Anyway, Doug Jones prosecuted the individuals responsible for killing the four girls in the Birmingham Church Bombing, he embraced politicians popular in the black community like Joe Biden and Cory Booker, and let President Obama do a robo call for him. Presley doesn’t have that hook of prosecuting Klan members nor would he have embraced prominent national Democrats popular among the black community. He would have been mealy mouthed on race and other sensitive topics, bombing with black turnout and  failing to move the needle with whites who are exponentially more partisan in federal contests.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What would a Espy 50.3-49.7 map look like?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I know the Mississippi deplorables will come through for the meth-face Klanswoman but I hope somehow I'm proven wrong and Espy wins.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Amite County is done. Espy gets 42 percent. Baria and the Dem Candidates in the Jungle Primary got 37 percent.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Espy wins Benton County 52-48. Baria got 39, Dem candidates in Jungle got 42.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Coahoma is done. Espy gets 76 percent up from the 70 percent Dems got in the Jungle.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jasper is done. Espy gets 57, was 52 in the Jungle Primary.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tishomingo fully reporting at 84-16 (identical to 11/6).

Benton is 52-48 in favor of Espy (was 58-41 in favor of Dems GOP on 11/6).

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope Espy gets Confederate Cindy under 20 in Hinds.