Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Wiz in Wis]

In case anyone is curious, here is first a Senate then an Assembly map of Milwaukee County:

4 safe D and one swing SD in MKE county is very impressive!

[Wiz in Wis]

Here are some regional Assembly maps for Milwaukee, Madison, and the Fox Valley/Cities:

Hey Gass... any chance you could do hi-res statewide maps? This project looks great and you should share it!

[Wiz in Wis]

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1135008418002063363

Revenge of the Frankenveto!!!

Slice and Dice!

[Wiz in Wis]

Obviously too early to call anything but those WOW numbers are not super impressive for Kelly.

[Wiz in Wis]

At the same time, the first few drops from Rock/Dane aren't exactly great for Karofsky.

[Wiz in Wis]

Good news is that those numbers in MKE county are not even from the city area. MKE proper has not reported yet.

How dost thou knowest this?

[Wiz in Wis]

Journal Sentinel has Karofsky 51/Kelley 49 in Kenosha with 33% in.

[Wiz in Wis]

Kelly just got a really good vote dump and is now within 300 votes but I don’t know from where he got the voters

Waukesha and Ozaukee are 33%+ in

[Wiz in Wis]

Dodge is around 66% in, and Kelley doing net 7-8 points worse than Hagedorn, fwiw.

[Wiz in Wis]

Some of these initial rural results look absolutely terrible for Kelley. Obviously depends where they come from, but wow.

[Wiz in Wis]

Kenosha results with 67% in are horrific for Karofsky. Is DDHQ correct?

I think there's something wrong with their numbers. The number of votes is lower than what the Journal Sentinel is reporting despite DDHQ having a higher % in.

Reminder that DDHQ trades speed for accuracy, and that they often have data entry errors like this that are corrected in the next main update.

And this error reemerges in Marathon.

They fixed Kenosha tho... effectively tied with 72% in.

[Wiz in Wis]

Where are yall seeing 72% of results?

Journal Sentinel for Kenosha county. DDHQ is also wrong in Dodge, percent in doesn't match vote totals.

[Wiz in Wis]

Big if here, assuming DDHQ has Marathon right... but, if they do, with 78% in, Karofsky already has more raw votes than Neubauer did.

[Wiz in Wis]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 3% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

Look at JS for Dodge, not DDHQ, DDHQ numbers are too low.

[Wiz in Wis]

Based on the fact that there are 0 votes on JS for Milwaukee Mayor, I have to assume that we don't have any city of Milwaukee vote there either.

[Wiz in Wis]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1249822602274705409

[Wiz in Wis]

Dang... now Kelley is under 70 in Washington county too... bleeding support in WOW.

[Wiz in Wis]

Dang... now Kelley is under 70 in Washington county too... bleeding support in WOW.

As was the case in Marathon, with 75% in, Karofsky now has more raw votes in Washington County than Neubauer won in 2019 there.

[Wiz in Wis]

Karofsky up 11% in new Kenosha update, 11191 votes for Karofsky and 8906 for Kelly total

Might be game over!

I'm seeing Karofsky up 16 there - 15020 to 10652 per Kenosha website.

Considering that the county went for Hagedorn that's excellent.

Yeah, JS just updated and Kenosha put Karofsky up statewide.

[Wiz in Wis]

Washington County gonna finish with Kelley getting 68%, Karofsky 32... again, a big GOP drop off.

[Wiz in Wis]

Vilas all in... 10% swing liberal. Pretty uniform statewide it looks like.

[Wiz in Wis]

Here's a fun fact, Karofsky did better in Ozaukee County than she did in Sheboygan, Manitowoc, Calumet, Fond du Lac, or Kewaunee county...

[Wiz in Wis]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

Total D votes (with Dane not finished) 830k
Total R votes (Trump 99%) 615k

[Wiz in Wis]

Question for the MKE area posters since i think i have seen some of you express dislike for Chris Larson before. Is Crowley likely to be a lot better?

He's slimy, seems to be more interested in personal power than anything but he is more progressive. Crawley is still liberal but more moderate, closer to Abele. I voted for Crawley d/t Larson's issues, he also had a bad incident with Taylor awhile ago calling her crazy and to take her meds too. So if it would have been someone with Larson's positions but not him I would have voted for him instead.

I know David personally, he worked with my wife on the Feingold 2010 campaign. He's genuinely one of the nicest people I've ever met, and he LOVES Milwaukee. Like, this guy bleeds the town. He had a rough youth on the North Side and came through it and now is 100% about giving back.

Larson, as has been mentioned, seems to always be looking for the next promotion, and he's an arrogant ass to be around. On the issues, they're both very solidly liberal. I don't tend to see Abele's $$$ as an indicator of anything than the fact that Chris Abele really, really, hates Chris Larson.

[Wiz in Wis]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.