Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

Another day, another poll with an Evers lead:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html

Evers 50
Walker 43

[Wiz in Wis]

So... to sum, in the past month

Walker +6
Vukmir +1
Schimel - 3

Uh.... what?

[Wiz in Wis]

Actually... let's review in a bit more detail.

Sample by party

Now GOP +3
Sept Dem +1
(4 pt GOP shift)

Now Walker 47, Evers 46
Sept Walker 44, Evers 49
(6 point GOP shift)

Now Baldwin 53, Vukmir 43
Sept Baldwin 53, Vukmir 42
(1 point GOP shift)

Now Shimel 47, Kaul 44
Was Shimel 48, Kaul 41
(4 point Dem shift)


A narrative suggesting that only Walker appears to be truly tied to a partisan anchor... both Vukmir and Shimel are underperforming the party spread. And this was in the field during the peak Kavanaugh hearing, so that may be boosting GOP turnout response rates vis-a-vis September.

[Wiz in Wis]

Apparently, Evers's lead among Independents is now +6 whereas it was +20 in September (which was always a little hard to believe.) +6 is still a good place for him to be, especially since Independents are more likely to be undecided.

Independents in this poll is usually single digits, so don't over interpret those swings. Franklin pushes almost everyone into partisan bowls.

[Wiz in Wis]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

Hmm, this is telling me to believe the Gold Standard over Marist.

The share of College Ed in Marist is 44%, it's 40% in Marquette... hardly enough to explain the variance alone... and it should be pointed out that Baldwin/Vukmir are almost the same in both polls.

[Wiz in Wis]

Agree with you on St. Croix, that county has strangly moved a bit to the left since 2016. Doubt it goes for Evers, but I would be shocked if Baldwin doesn't carry it.

Similarly, I don't think Walker is likely to lose by 4 but carry Winnebago County, but ymmv.

[Wiz in Wis]

This is notable:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1052928421771137024

If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.

OK, looks like you're back to the bargaining stage of denial...

PPP (a Dem-affiliated polling agency) held back on the Governor numbers. There was something there that was extremely uncomfortable for them. This is why Marquette is the "Gold Standard", because they weigh properly.   

The poll was commissioned by groups supporting Baldwin, and asking about Evers/Walker costs money. In fact, if our database is any guide, most of the time PPP polls Wisconsin, they ask only about the gov race or the senate race.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking. I'm more than pleased to see how Baldwin is polling and am glad I was wrong to worry about her back in August.

My comments about rural Wisconsin are more focused on Walker specifically and Evers and how they both affect the various voter blocks. There has been constant "surprise" about Walker's continued victories amongst urban Dems specifically, and that's particularly where I see them being oblivious. Obviously Wisconsin is a very purple state; I just think Evers isn't the best candidate to speak to the whole state and rural votes obviously count, too.

As a resident of rural Wisconsin, I think you are wrong. Evers is a champion for schools, and every rural school district in Wisconsin has felt the pinch in the last few years. Most have been forced to hold referendum just to keep up with maintenance costs. Combine that with a ton of rural angst against Foxconn (outside the SE) and the generally horrible state of rural roads, and I think rural Wisconsin is quite open to Tony Evers.

[Wiz in Wis]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

[Wiz in Wis]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

They weight for education...to my knowledge, the only one polling Wisconsin that does.

The LV screen is pretty tight, with only "certain to vote" voters getting into the LV pool.

[Wiz in Wis]

New Governor and Senate numbers out today from Emerson. 604 LV poll of online/landlines

Evers 51
Walker 46

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-tight-governor-races-georgia-wisconsin-iowa-democrats-look-pick-two-house-seats-iowa#.W9xw02hKiUk

Interestingly, the gap between Baldwin and Evers is just 2 pts, same with Walker and Vukmir

Baldwin 53
Vukmir 44

[Wiz in Wis]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

That story is gross.... Yikes. Yeah, a solid case for a 'November' surprise.

[Wiz in Wis]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

That story is gross.... Yikes. Yeah, a solid case for a 'November' surprise.

I'll hear out Walker's side of the story, but this seems much worse than what they were accusing Evers of doing (when he was just following the laws and regulations required).

His side of the story, thus far, has been "EVERS IS BAD" which makes me think he's got nothing. I mean, it's a big administration, but if you put your main critique of your opponent to be on licensing, you're gonna be held accountable for the same.

[Wiz in Wis]

Voter #171 in Reedsburg precinct 4 at 7:45am. All voters in Reedsburg vote at City Hall, and the room was PACKED. The line was at least 30-40 long and all 20 voting booths were full. At least 25 people entered while I waited.

We have a competitive Assembly race, State Senate race, and of course the statewides. First time I've voted there in a general but man... it was hopping.

[Wiz in Wis]

Voter #171 in Reedsburg precinct 4 at 7:45am. All voters in Reedsburg vote at City Hall, and the room was PACKED. The line was at least 30-40 long and all 20 voting booths were full. At least 25 people entered while I waited.

We have a competitive Assembly race, State Senate race, and of course the statewides. First time I've voted there in a general but man... it was hopping.

We need Reedsburg to go back to Obama margins for Dems to have a chance at picking up the AD and the SD!

I did my part

[Wiz in Wis]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

[Wiz in Wis]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

[Wiz in Wis]

Kenosha is almost all in, and Evers winning by 7%... that's a really bad sign for Walker. Evers has 100k margin in MKE.

[Wiz in Wis]

How is the assembly and senate looking?

Not expecting big changes, but a lot of key seats out for now.

[Wiz in Wis]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1060018356424720389

[Wiz in Wis]

Just double checked... in 2014, MKE was 230k to 130k... so, yeah, 60k votes are still out.

[Wiz in Wis]

Milwaukee and Dane County have gotten bluer since 2014. In Milwaukee County, Burke received 188k votes, whereas in Dane Burke received 175k. Also, Burke received 54k votes in Waukesha County compared to Evers' 66k.

Yeah, there is not a lot left for Walker to win with... some in the Fox Valley, but his margins are shrinking there, not expanding.

[Wiz in Wis]

Still nervous with Evers only up a little over 1000 votes though...

Now up 3000... so much left for both sides, but La Crosse and Dane are still holding onto a lot of votes, as is, apparently, city of MKE.

[Wiz in Wis]

City of Portage is what is left in Columbia County. Democrats will win there.

Source?

[Wiz in Wis]

Need those votes, 91%, Walker up 2,759.

What results are you watching?

TMJ4, 92%, Walker up 2,424.

With the outstanding ballots from MKE and the remaining city precincts, Evers should have it.

We're WELL within recount range here regardless. Still, good to know that those votes are still out there. It would have been very weird to see turnout lower than in 2014 in MKE.