Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer
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  Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 85559 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #625 on: October 10, 2018, 10:47:10 AM »

Hope WI doenst make their version of  getting rid of Stephen Harper mistake

You're implying getting rid of Stephen Harper was a mistake, which I can say it definitely wasn't. Getting rid of Scott Walker is also not a mistake.
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hofoid
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« Reply #626 on: October 10, 2018, 11:10:03 AM »

I'm waiting impatiently for the dang Marquette poll to release.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #627 on: October 10, 2018, 11:28:34 AM »

Evers +7 (51-44) and Baldwin +12 (53-41).
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #628 on: October 10, 2018, 11:37:17 AM »

Evers +7 (51-44) and Baldwin +12 (53-41).

What's your source for this? I can't find that anywhere.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #629 on: October 10, 2018, 11:39:51 AM »

Nvm, the poll hasn't been released yet.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #630 on: October 10, 2018, 11:42:03 AM »

Evers +7 (51-44) and Baldwin +12 (53-41).

What's your source for this? I can't find that anywhere.

Or is it a prediction?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #631 on: October 10, 2018, 11:43:21 AM »


Yeah, that's what I was thinking a couple minutes after I posted that.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #632 on: October 10, 2018, 11:44:56 AM »


Yeah, that's what I was thinking a couple minutes after I posted that.

That's just my prediction ...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #633 on: October 10, 2018, 12:20:55 PM »

This is already going to be a more Republican poll than the last one just based on the partisan makeup. Also part was done during the Kavanaugh confirmations and part was done after. Would be interesting to get a spilt.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #634 on: October 10, 2018, 12:21:53 PM »

Apparently the LV sample of the poll is 47% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 8% Independent.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #635 on: October 10, 2018, 12:22:26 PM »

It has Walker up 1, which is believable, but the sample does seem Republican-friendly.

Walker (R) - 47%
Evers (D) - 46%

Baldwin is up 10, however...

Baldwin (D) - 53%
Vukmir (R) - 43%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #636 on: October 10, 2018, 12:24:11 PM »

Baldwin's numbers barely changed, up 10.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #637 on: October 10, 2018, 12:24:28 PM »

It has Walker up 1, which is believable, but the sample does seem Republican-friendly.

Walker (R) - 47%
Evers (D) - 46%

Can’t wait to see how many pages the thread on the polling board will reach. Gonna guess 4 or 5.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #638 on: October 10, 2018, 12:25:56 PM »

AG race tightened too. Schimel only up 4 now, down 3 from September.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #639 on: October 10, 2018, 12:27:00 PM »

So... to sum, in the past month

Walker +6
Vukmir +1
Schimel - 3

Uh.... what?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #640 on: October 10, 2018, 12:29:57 PM »

So... to sum, in the past month

Walker +6
Vukmir +1
Schimel - 3

Uh.... what?

Must've been that genius ad.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #641 on: October 10, 2018, 12:35:49 PM »

Actually... let's review in a bit more detail.

Sample by party

Now GOP +3
Sept Dem +1
(4 pt GOP shift)

Now Walker 47, Evers 46
Sept Walker 44, Evers 49
(6 point GOP shift)

Now Baldwin 53, Vukmir 43
Sept Baldwin 53, Vukmir 42
(1 point GOP shift)

Now Shimel 47, Kaul 44
Was Shimel 48, Kaul 41
(4 point Dem shift)


A narrative suggesting that only Walker appears to be truly tied to a partisan anchor... both Vukmir and Shimel are underperforming the party spread. And this was in the field during the peak Kavanaugh hearing, so that may be boosting GOP turnout response rates vis-a-vis September.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #642 on: October 10, 2018, 12:38:17 PM »

Actually... let's review in a bit more detail.

Sample by party

Now GOP +3
Sept Dem +1
(4 pt GOP shift)

Now Walker 47, Evers 46
Sept Walker 44, Evers 49
(6 point GOP shift)

Now Baldwin 53, Vukmir 43
Sept Baldwin 53, Vukmir 42
(1 point GOP shift)

Now Shimel 47, Kaul 44
Was Shimel 48, Kaul 41
(4 point Dem shift)


A narrative suggesting that only Walker appears to be truly tied to a partisan anchor... both Vukmir and Shimel are underperforming the party spread. And this was in the field during the peak Kavanaugh hearing, so that may be boosting GOP turnout response rates vis-a-vis September.

I hope that Franklin shows us the responses as they were out in the field. I imagine Republicans did better around 10/3 than they did around 10/7.

He did the same thing when they were in the field during the Access Hollywood tape.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #643 on: October 10, 2018, 12:38:48 PM »

Apparently, Evers's lead among Independents is now +6 whereas it was +20 in September (which was always a little hard to believe.) +6 is still a good place for him to be, especially since Independents are more likely to be undecided.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #644 on: October 10, 2018, 12:45:16 PM »

Apparently, Evers's lead among Independents is now +6 whereas it was +20 in September (which was always a little hard to believe.) +6 is still a good place for him to be, especially since Independents are more likely to be undecided.

Independents in this poll is usually single digits, so don't over interpret those swings. Franklin pushes almost everyone into partisan bowls.
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hofoid
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« Reply #645 on: October 10, 2018, 12:48:40 PM »

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #646 on: October 10, 2018, 12:51:41 PM »

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

You're right. They're much better off listening to a concern troll on US Election Atlas dot org.
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erſatz-york
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« Reply #647 on: October 10, 2018, 12:53:45 PM »

When Walker wins by 3 you’ll realize that his Electric Company ad was what sealed the deal.
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hofoid
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« Reply #648 on: October 10, 2018, 12:55:07 PM »

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

You're right. They're much better off listening to a concern troll on US Election Atlas dot org.
You have people cheerleading identity politics on the 2020 board here. Both sides do it.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #649 on: October 10, 2018, 12:56:15 PM »

LOL Walker isn't winning while Baldwin is winning by double digits. Leans D.
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