I don't understand this notion that by overstating Obama leads you will depress Republican turnout. That makes no sense whatsoever. If Obama was wildly up in the polls vs. Romney that would probably depress Democratic turnout as much if not moreso than Republican turnout. The conspiracy isn't even sensible.
Answer: The media is being played.
What does that mean? For what? How?
They think they're depressing Republican turnout but they're actually depressing Democratic turnout. That is correct.
How did this narrative start? A leaked tape tied to Jimmy Carter's grandson. Who the hell do you think leaked that to him? It's not like he caught Romney on camera saying that Democrats cling to "atheism and abortion." The tape got the narrative back onto the economy, away from the foreign policy disasters that resembled Carter's tenure (Coincidence that Carter's grandson is tied to the tape?). Hardcore Republicans hear from Rush Limbaugh, et al. that Jimmy Carter's grandson is behind the tape, and what do think that does for Romney turnout? Furthermore, what has Romney been doing in September about as much he has been campaigning? Prepping for the debates, so of course his poll numbers are going to be down some in the swing states compared to Obama. Why is Romney holding back on hordes of cash relative to Team Obama? Another factor that is artificially boosting Obama's numbers, making many media members giddy as they report the news that the election is over. Consequently, in mainstream America people are growing increasingly distrustful of the media. What is being reported does not reflect reality.
You're a smart guy. You can figure it all out if you think about it long and hard.
Honest question... How old are you?