The next Virginia/Colorado

[PoliticalShelter]

Mississippi and Alaska are two potential wildcards for this type of transformation.

[PoliticalShelter]

Mississippi and Alaska are two potential wildcards for this type of transformation.

One thing about Virginia is that its transformation has rather closely tracked what the idea of generational replacement would suggest. Much more Democratic younger voters growing up are contributing a lot to its pro-Democratic shift, and each year they gobble up a little more of the next age bracket. It's actually one of the few states to follow that theory so neatly. Others like North Carolina aren't so clean and leave more questions than answers.

My point being that I'm not sure MS or AK have that same dynamic. I don't think we have enough exit polls to see exactly where they are going. I've seen it mentioned that older Mississippians are contributing a lot to its Republican lean and just by aging of its young people should trend Democratic somewhat, but I'm not sure to what degree.

Not sure what you mean by this considering how states like North Carolina and Georgia have millennial voters that are more democratic than Virginias millennial. Virginian millennials seem to have similar numbers that democrats get with millennials overall.

[PoliticalShelter]

Not sure what you mean by this considering how states like North Carolina and Georgia have millennial voters that are more democratic than Virginias millennial. Virginian millennials seem to have similar numbers that democrats get with millennials overall.

It's not necessarily about how deeply Democratic they vote, it's about whether they keep voting that way the more they age. In Virginia, there seems to be little slippage, as the 30-39 year olds in 2012 helped make the 40-49 bloc majority Democratic in 2016 as 4 years' worth of those voters shifted into the 40-49 category. If you applied the same to North Carolina, the 30-39 group should be a lot more Democratic than it was in 2016, but it isn't. I don't think population migration is enough to explain this in either state.

Uhh, the exit polls say that Hillary improved amongst the 40 - 49 by one percentage point compared to obamas percentage in 2012 in Virginia, which is completely meaningless and doesn't really tell us anything.

[PoliticalShelter]

In fact looking at the Virginia exit polls I noticed that Hillary collapsed amongst 18 to 24 year old Virginians compared to Obama, getting around 51%.

In fact Virginias' young voters are actually closer to the various Midwestern millennial voting patterns, than its is to other sunbelt states like North Carolina, Georgia and Florida (although that state has a unusual divide amongst older miellnals and younger millennials, probably just bad exit polling).

[PoliticalShelter]

And? Hillary also did better with 40 to 49 year old North Carolina voters which doesn't disprove my point that Virginia is not somehow unique amongst the sunbelt states with its youth patterns (and isnt even really the strongest example anyway).

Also trump was also a terrible candidate for young voters, even by GOP standards (losing them in the primaries for example).