Sabato's list of House seats likely to go Dem

[Galactic Overlord]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=DNW2006081001

From the article:

HOUSE: On the Fringe of Fifteen (Currently 232 R, 202 D, 1 I/D)
Probable D House pick-ups: Pennsylvania-06
R Open Seats Leaning D: Texas-22, Colorado-07, Iowa-01
R Open Seats that are Toss-Ups: Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, New York-24, Ohio-18
Possible D House pick-ups: Arizona-05, Connecticut-02, Connecticut-04, Connecticut-05, Florida-22, Indiana-02, Indiana-08, Indian a-09, Kentucky-04, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-01, New York-20, Ohio-01, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-08, Pennsylvania-10, Texas-23, Virginia-02, Washington-08
________________________________________

Interesting list. Here's where I agree (and disagree) with Mr. Sabato:

Probable D House pick-ups: Pennsylvania-06 

Agree. Kind of a "duh" listing anyway.

R Open Seats Leaning D: Texas-22, Colorado-07, Iowa-01

TX-22 will hinge on the difficulty of waging a write-in campaign for a candidate. I would still list CO-7 and IA-1 as tossups until more polling information comes in, as the Democrats had contenious primaries and the Republicans had smoother sailing.

R Open Seats that are Toss-Ups: Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, New York-24, Ohio-18

I agree they are competitive, but toss-ups, I'd say nay except for AZ-08, as the primary may yield Randy Graf, a candidate whom the incumbent would find anathema and would never support.  Also, Sabato hasn't updated Bob Ney's withdrawl from OH-18, which takes a scandal-ridden incumbent out of the picture.

Possible D House pick-ups: Arizona-05, Connecticut-02, Connecticut-04, Connecticut-05, Florida-22, Indiana-02, Indiana-08, Indian a-09, Kentucky-04, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-01, New York-20, Ohio-01, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-08, Pennsylvania-10, Texas-23, Virginia-02, Washington-08

Sabato should have listed CT-04, IN-08, IN-09, KY-04, NC-11, and NM-01 as tossups and put his old tossup list in this section, IMO.

Frankly, I think he's jumping the gun on some of these races, though all of them do bear watching.  If I had to make some calls, I would say the Republicans keep AZ-05, CT-05, FL-22, IL-06, IN-02, IN-09, MN-06, OH-01, OH-15, OH-18, PA-08, PA-10, TX-23, VA-02, and WA-08.   The others...we'll know that on election day.