Ohio
Call: Toss-up (Democrat) [pick-up]
With disapproval ratings approaching 80 percent, you'd think that incumbent Republican Governor Bob Taft had been devouring African orphans on television. Taft, who has been convicted of a range of misdemeanors relating to golf games and other embarassing fare, is the plague. The Ohio GOP knows that it will need to find a candidate that does not even resemble Taft if they want to keep favour in a state that is quite Republican on local level.
Republicans have plenty of officials in the running: African-American Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, state Attorney General Jim Petro, and state Auditor Betty Montgomery. On the other hand, the Democrats have popular Congressman Ted Strickland. While Blackwell is rather conservative with an urban tilt, Strickland is seen as moderate and rural. No reliable polls have been released for the race, but - despite Blackwell's successful self-distancing from the Taft administration - it would be unsurprising to see Strickland leaning.
I think that's an accurate description. I'd rate it as a toss-up only if Blackwell wins the primary. Republicans generally hate Taft, and they won't be hot on Petro or Montgomery, and will probably sit out the race. Then it will lean to Strickland's favor.
