Alcon's 2006 Election Projection - Governors (Issue 2)

[Alcon]

As usual, this is a dynamic thread.  I don't know much about a number of states, and polling information seems to have actually decreased since the last time I did this.  I welcome any and all contributions, especially if you notice any bias in either direction, which I try to avoid.

Maps are as following:

Call - The current call with >30 for toss-up, >50 for weak lean, >60 for lean, >70 for strong lean, and >90 for safe.

Party control - The projected party with >40 for a party change and >60 for no change.

Grey means that no projection has been made at this time or there is no race yet.

Call


Party Control


Final Map


Score
Democrat - 28 (+6)
Republican - 22 (-6)

[Alcon]

Alabama
Call: Lean Republican
After being run out of town on a rail from the southeast presidentially, the Democratic Party has resorted to keeping in power in Dixie through maintaining state legislature majorities and picking up governorships.  The party must have been heartened by the low approval ratings of Alabama's Republican Governor Bob Riley.  Unfortunately for them, the party hasn't lasted.  Polls initially showed Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley with an advantage on Riley, but the summer brought great improvement to the embattled Governor's numbers.  In turn, Baxley fell behind and ex-Governor Don Siegelman went from narrowly behind to hopeless.  Assuming Riley's numbers stay out of the gutter, he's more or less a lock for re-election.  But, in a region famous for one-term governorships, nothing is certain.

Alaska
Call: Weak Lean Democrat [pick-up]
After appointing his inexperienced daughter Lisa to the Senate, Frank Murkowski's administration has been unable to escape his act of nepotism.  Although the younger Murkowski was narrowly elected in 2004, the Governor's numbers have never recovered, and only around a third of Alaskans now approve of him.  This is certainly great news for the struggling Alaska Democratic Party, but so far all they have been able to produce candidate-wise is state house minority leader Ethan Berkowitz.  Berkowitz is a decent enough candidate, but lacks the star power to defeat anything other than an unpopular politician like Murkowski.

Assuming the Dems are able to capitalise on Murkowski's bad fortune, this could be a race.  Alaska voters might just end up delivering a Democratic Governor to their state, and awkward future Thanksgiving dinners to the Murkowski family.

Arizona
Call: Strong Lean Democrat
Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano's approval ratings are in the 60 percent range, which is a very good place to be, especially in an independent but conservative state like Arizona.  Her main problem out of the way after Republican Representative J.D. Hayworth decided not to role the dice, Nepolitano seems to have a smooth road ahead of her for re-election.  Republicans have a novelty candidate in Don Goldwater (Barry's nephew) and a standard "better than nothing" candidate in ex-state senate president John Greene.  That simply isn't enough to unseat Napolitano, whose approval ratings have enough cushioning for a moderate-sized scandal.

Arkansas
Call: Weak Lean Democrat [pick-up]
The University of Arkansas's Arkansas Poll recently showed likely Democratic nominee Mike Beebe leading likely Republican nominee Asa Hutchinson by a margin of seven points.  Take this with a grain of salt, though, especially considering that it is a university poll, which typically have a mediocre record.  In fact, the Arkansas Poll has only done one other poll, a 2004 Presidential showing Bush winning Arkansas by 7 points a few weeks before the election (the final result was Bush by 10).  Win Rockefeller, previously a candidate, has sadly had to withdraw his candidacy due to his battle with cancer.

Still, though, it is not hard to believe that Beebe has a lead in this state with surprisingly non-partisan state races.  Popular incumbent Mike Huckabee's campaigning could benefit Hutchinson, though, and in this GOP-leaning state, the most that can be made of the current situation is the smallest of Democratic leans.

California
Call: Lean Democrat [pick-up]
Ouch.

That is pretty much all that can be said about the performance of incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger's initiatives in the November 2005 election.  Already facing a 2-to-1 disapproval rating before the election, Schwarzenegger could not afford anything other than a big victory. Instead, he received a rather crushing defeat.  Schwarzenegger's chances in 2006 all depend on the strength of his challengers, which is so far the only thing he has going for himself.  The best candidates are state treasurer Phil Angelides and state controller Steve Westly.  Both are only average candidates, with Angelides too uncharismatic and Westly too unknown.

Still, though, even when his disapproval was only narrowly higher than his approval, polls showed Angelides with a narrow lead.  It is hard to imagine that there are many candidates the Democrats could put up against Schwarzenegger that would not have a starting advantage at this point.  And while another recall is very unlikely, it may turn out that Schwarzenegger's best course of action would be to not run again.  The Republicans having no significant candidates, this too would likely result in defeat.  Lack of polling is the only thing that keeps this call from not being stronger.

I will spare you the obligatory puns that go along with analysing Schwarzenegger.

[Alcon]

Colorado
Call: Weak Lean Democrat [pick-up]
This race came out of nowhere.  Although Democrats gained at every level of office in Colorado during the 2004 elections, Republican Governor Bill Owens remained fairly popular.  Few expected Owens' heir apparent, Congressman Bob Beauprez, to face much a race in three-time Denver district attorney Bill Ritter, yet - surprise, surprise - an October 2005 poll from the polling world's wunerkind Mason-Dixon shows Ritter with a six point lead over Beauprez and an eleven point lead over former University of Denver president Marc Holtzman.

Ritter's main issue would be John Hickenlooper, the well-regarded Denver mayor who would eat up Ritter's Denver metro numbers, crippling to any Democrat in Colorado.  It will be interesting to see how this race shapes up, especially considering the surprise early lead for a fairly unknown Dem challenger in a state that decreasingly leans to the GOP.

Connecticut
Call: Safe Republican
Republican incumbent Jodi Rell is a woman to be admired.  She was sworn in after the resignation of Governor John Rowland on charges of corruption.  Immediately, she went to work ridding the administration of Rowland's cronies.  Rell avoided the traps of partisan politics, all while battling breast cancer.  The end result was a 77 percent approval rating and absolutely no chance of being defeated whatsoever.

Florida
Call: Toss-up (Republican)
Fairly popular retiring Republican Jeb Bush leaves the increasingly GOP-leaning Florida with an open seat contest.  Sure enough, it looks like the Republicans have the early advantage.  Attorney General Charlie Crist is the clear frontrunner ahead of state CFO Tom Gallagher.  The Democrats have Congressman Jim Davis.  Polls show Davis ahead of both - a surprising result that is probably unlikely to last long.

Georgia
Call: Lean Republican
Incumbent Republican Sonny Purdue is perhaps one of the only popular Governors to face a significant challenge in 2006, and that is coming from Secretary of State Cathy Cox.  Although Cox has higher approval ratings than Purdue, it is hard to imagine that the state would defeat a Governor with 57 percent approval ratings.  Lt. Governor Mark Taylor, Cox's main challenger, would be defeated soundly.  Cox quite possibly will make this a close race, but the initial advantage is the Republicans'.

Hawaii
Call: Strong Lean Republican
Republicans currently have some of their strongest Governors seats in strongly Democratic states, and Hawaii is one of them.  Incumbent Linda Lingle is moderate, popular, and probably not going much of anywhere.  Hawaii may be Democratic by nature, but its population - especially those of native ethnicity - is rather friendly to incumbents, which accounted for Bush's improvement there.

There are a few factors keeping Hawaii from being solid.  Congressman Neil Abercrombie has been mentioned as a possible, albeit unlikely candidate and could theoretically give Lingle a run for her money.  Still, though, Hawaii is little more than a pipe dream for the Democrats come 2006.

[Alcon]

Idaho
Call: Safe Republican
Along with Alaska, Idaho is one of two states that does not have a Democratic Governor, Senator, or house representative.  Fairly popular Republican Dick Kempthorne is retiring, leaving Congressman "Butch" Otter as his likely successor.  Otter is conservative, but well-known for his objections to the PATRIOT Act.  Otter's main worry besides his name being made fun of is Lt. Governor Jim Risch, who has shown that he has the ambition and funds to be competitive.  The Democrats have Jerry Brady, 2002 Gubernatoral nominee, who came within ten points of defeating Kempthorne.  This was mainly because the Democratic Party was having a good year, and Brady will be crushed this time around.  Idaho will remain what is arguably the most solidly Republican state in the union.

Illinois
Call: Toss-up (Republican) [pick-up]
Democrat Rod Blagojevich has an eleven-point approval deficit and is certainly in trouble.  The extent to which he is in trouble is unknown, though.  The best candidate the Republicans can come up with is a state senator, Steve Rauschenberger.  Aside from being the hardest-to-spell Gubernatoral match-up possible, it also might be the closest.  Former Governor Jim Edgar is not seeking a third term, and all of the other candidates are no-names.  Still, a possible early advantage goes to Rauschenberger, even though the disreputable Zogby poll showing him up by one is the only thing other than Blagojevich's approval rating to indicate he is leading.

Iowa
Call: Weak Lean Republican [pick-up]
Republican Jim Nussle has already virtually secured his seat while the Democrats will likely become engaged in a fierce primary battle, one of several things that will likely result in this seat falling into Republican hands.  Nussle's most likely opponent is Secretary of State Chet Culver.  Culver could make this classically close state have another classically close election, but the other Dem nominees would lose fairly handily.  Initially, it looks like a GOP pick-up.

Kansas
Call: Lean Democrat
Democrat Kathleen Sebelius is fairly popular considering the conservative nature of the state she is serving.  However, that does not mean she will be without a tense battle come 2006. The Kansas Republican Party is exceptionally successful and, as a result, has a large range of people to select from to make a nominee.  So far, though, the best they have come up with is current state speaker Doug Mays and former state speaker Robin Jennison.  State senator Jim Barnett also is in the race, and his selection of fellow state senator Susan Wagle for Lt. Governor could help him, but the pair remain decided underdogs.  This race depends a lot on the GOP nominee, and so far all of those who have been strongly suggested as running are fairly unimpressive.

Maine
Call: Weak Lean Democrat
Dem Governor John Baldacci has gotten to the point where his approval ratings are bad enough that even the candidate-starved Maine GOP might be able to defeat him.  So far, their field consists of a range of state senators of no great notoriety.  Unsurprisingly, it is impossible to tell how this race will turn out until it develops more, but initially the Republicans' disorganisation gives Baldacci a slight advantage.

[Joe Republic]

Don't stop now!  I was enjoying this excellent analysis.

[Alcon]

Maryland
Call: Weak Lean Democrat [pick-up]
By and large, the current crop of northeastern Republican governors fall into one of two categories:  popular and safe or unpopular and in trouble.  The status of Bob Ehrlich is probably the hardest to define of the batch, but it's clear that whatever it is, 2006 will be a tumultuous year for the divisive politician.  Elected over an unpopular Democratic incumbent in 2002, Ehrlich has always been a target, but his current standing puts him in even more danger than before.

Ehrlich's main problem is that he has a split approval rating in a state that almost reflexively votes Democrat.  Another thorn in Ehrlich's side is that he has two very much viable opponents, Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley and Montgomery County executive Doug Duncan.  Two polls have been released, one from the Baltimore Sun, of which Ehrlich has made a powerful enemy.  Both this poll and the independent Gonzales Research show a small lead for O'Malley, and so far it appears that the early advantage is narrowly his.

Massachusetts
Call: Weak Lean Democrat [pick-up]
On paper, incumbent Mitt Romney's situation looks truly undesirable.  A Republican with negative approval ratings overall, and among moderates and independents, in a state as liberal as Massachusetts almost always goes down to defeat.  The Democrats seem to have already settled on a candidate, state Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly.  Reilly is moderate and solid, and would even have given Romney a run of his money if he was popular.  But Romney is not, which indicates that he needs to act fast or lose his position in 2006.

Michigan
Call: Weak Lean Democrat
Nationally, the Republicans are facing a surprising disease that typically afflicts the Dems:  No Good Candidate Syndrome.  Nowhere is this more evident than in Michigan, where incumbent Democrat Jennifer Granholm is soundly dispatching current Republican favourite Dick DeVos in polls by about twenty points.  That is especially surprising, considering that Granholm's approval has approached a twenty point defecit.  Polling at fifty percent this early on is usually the mark of a strong candidate, but in this case many Michigan voters seem to already feel as if they are not going to find a better alternative than Granholm.  Sixteen points is a big defecit, though, and for the moment, it's best to be conservative and assuming that the Michigan Republicans will do better than a twenty-point loss here.

Minnesota
Call: Weak Lean Republican
Republican Tim Pawlenty is just short of being outside of the range where he is difficult to beat, a fact that must be quite frustrating to him.  Early polling indicates that Attorney General Mike Hatch would defeat the well-regarded but not widely beloved Pawlenty if the election were held today.  But this comes from an historically less-than-stellar pollster.  Minnesota could produce yet another barnburner, but at this point it's unclear where exactly this race is.

Nebraska
Call: Safe Republican
Pity Dave Heineman.  He has over-60% approval ratings, is a solid conservative, and would stand no chance of losing in 2006.  That is, if it wasn't for Tom Osborne.  Osborne, who represents Nebraska's more-conservative-than-Utah third congressional district, is a former University of Nebraska head coach.  And, in a state where football matters, Osborne is expected to oust Heineman in the primary.  Osborne is older, though, and perhaps less energetic than Heineman, so look for a tense battle in the spring.  But when November rolls around, Nebraska will deliver a Republican to the statehouse.

[Moooooo]

Alcon, Gonzales Research, a non-partisan polling firm with a good track record in Maryland released a poll a couple weeks ago showing both Duncan and O'Malley up.

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies:
O'Malley: 48%
Ehrlich: 42%

Duncan: 45%
Ehrlich: 44%

Other than that I think your Maryland analysis is right on.  Ehrlich is hard to peg as one or the other.  He has decent approval ratings, not good, but decent.  However, his head to head numbers are poor and the fact that he's plorasing a state in which dem's out number rep's spells bad news for him.

[Alcon]

Nevada
Call: Lean Republican
Fresh off of being named one of Time's five best Governors, Kenny Guinn will be retiring come 2006.  His long-time heir apparent, Jim Gibbons, represents Nevada's third congressional district, spanning from the northerm and western Las Vegas 'burbs up into the desert north.  Although fairly conservative, Gibbons is known to be a maverick both in his voting record and in his speech, the latter of which is what makes this race less than Safe.  Governor Guinn knows this, and is backing Lt. Governor Lorraine Hunt as the safe, less flashy alternative to Gibbons.

The Democrats might be able to take an advantage of this rift if their candidate was remarkable.  The current leader, Dina Titus, is the personable but fairly unknown state senate minority leader.  Titus is engaged in a primary battle against Jim Gibson, mayor of suburban Henderson.  The rumoured possible enterance of Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman would immediately make this a close and exceptionally bloody race.

New Hampshire
Call: Safe Democrat
Democrat John Lynch narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Craig Benson in 2004.  Thanks to New Hampshire's strange two-year election cycle, Lynch is up again in 2006, but it looks like his first election will at least for now be his only competitive one.  With an approval rating of around 70 percent and no significant competitors on the horizon, it's hard to imagine that Lynch will fall to the rare first-term defeat come 2006.

New Mexico
Call: Safe Democrat
It's hard to imagine incumbent Democrat Bill Richardson losing in 2006, but it's all the way he wins that matters.  Although he has recently been plagued by a number of small scandals, Richardson still has approval ratings over 60 percent, more than enough to get him elected in a state where he is an establishment.  On the other hand, he must win this election in a way that makes him popular on a national scale if he wants to be a viable presidential candidate.  If the New Mexico GOP is able to find a good candidate (popular Congresswoman Heather Wilson is out), this race could be bloody enough to come back to haunt Richardson in 2008.

New York
Call: Strong Lean Democrat [pick-up]
Although his approval ratings have bounced back to the point where he is under five points in the hole, common belief seems to have already decided that the career of Republican George Pataki is all but over.  Enter Eliot Spitzer, popular crime-busting New York Attorney General.  Spitzer is a strong candidate and, although he may attract the ire of corporate Republicans, could even manage to cut into the GOP's base.  Spitzer's best opponent so far is Bill Weld, the moderate ex-governor of Massachusetts.  Weld, although raised on Long Island, has made his political fortunes out of state, and the voters of New York will punish him for that.  Other candidates (the most well-known of which is Lt. Governor Mary Donahue) are all ten shades of uninteresting.  This is Spitzer's to lose, and it's hard to imagine he will.

Ohio
Call: Toss-up (Democrat) [pick-up]
With disapproval ratings approaching 80 percent, you'd think that incumbent Republican Governor Bob Taft had been devouring African orphans on television.  Taft, who has been convicted of a range of misdemeanors relating to golf games and other embarassing fare, is the plague.  The Ohio GOP knows that it will need to find a candidate that does not even resemble Taft if they want to keep favour in a state that is quite Republican on local level.

Republicans have plenty of officials in the running:  African-American Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, state Attorney General Jim Petro, and state Auditor Betty Montgomery.  On the other hand, the Democrats have popular Congressman Ted Strickland.  While Blackwell is rather conservative with an urban tilt, Strickland is seen as moderate and rural.  No reliable polls have been released for the race, but - despite Blackwell's successful self-distancing from the Taft administration - it would be unsurprising to see Strickland leaning.

[Alcon]

Alcon, Gonzales Research, a non-partisan polling firm with a good track record in Maryland released a poll a couple weeks ago showing both Duncan and O'Malley up.

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies:
O'Malley: 48%
Ehrlich: 42%

Duncan: 45%
Ehrlich: 44%

Other than that I think your Maryland analysis is right on.  Ehrlich is hard to peg as one or the other.  He has decent approval ratings, not good, but decent.  However, his head to head numbers are poor and the fact that he's plorasing a state in which dem's out number rep's spells bad news for him.

Thanks.  I updated the prediction to Weak Lean Dem.

[Moooooo]

Alcon, Gonzales Research, a non-partisan polling firm with a good track record in Maryland released a poll a couple weeks ago showing both Duncan and O'Malley up.

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies:
O'Malley: 48%
Ehrlich: 42%

Duncan: 45%
Ehrlich: 44%

Other than that I think your Maryland analysis is right on.  Ehrlich is hard to peg as one or the other.  He has decent approval ratings, not good, but decent.  However, his head to head numbers are poor and the fact that he's plorasing a state in which dem's out number rep's spells bad news for him.

Thanks.  I updated the prediction to Weak Lean Dem.

Tossup is probably more accurate, but weak-lean dem is a respectable ranking. I think as the campaign progresses youll see the election swing towards ehrlich and then back to the dem's and repeat.  I think the mood of the national electorate will play a big role in both Maryland races because they are both going to be close.

[Alcon]

Tossup is probably more accurate, but weak-lean dem is a respectable ranking. I think as the campaign progresses youll see the election swing towards ehrlich and then back to the dem's and repeat.  I think the mood of the national electorate will play a big role in both Maryland races because they are both going to be close.

I agree.  The race will likely become closer.  But if I factor in how I think the race progresses, I automatically also have to start guessing who will enter the race, which makes things a whole lot less fun.  My calls are, more or less, what would happen if the election was held in a week (enough time to get the current frontrunner out there, but not much more.)

[Alcon]

Oklahoma
Call: Strong Lean Democrat
On November 2nd, 2004, Oklahomans went to the polls and deliveried a nearly two-to-one victory to George W. Bush, another one of several signals that the once populist state was moving ever rightward.  This was hardly good news for moderate Democrat Brad Henry, who struggled to be elected with 43 percent of the vote in 2002. 
Fortunately for Henry, Congressman J.C. Watts and Lt. Governor Mary Fallin have both said no to a run.  Both candidates could have knocked the very popular Henry out, but virtually no one else could.  Still, this is a very Republican state, and a upset is unlikely but not out of the question.

Oregon
Call: Weak Lean Democrat
Oregonians have never been fond of Democrat Ted Kulongowski.  Elected narrowly in 2002, Kulongowski has always been less popular than a Democrat in the state should be.  Although his approval ratings have improved a bit, he still faces a popularity defecit, thanks in part to unimproved unemployment rates.  However, the best the Republicans have is their 2002 candidate, Kevin Mannix.

Kulongowski beat Mannix by three points back then, and Mannix - the state GOP chair - has not become any more of an attractive candidate in the past four years.  Other primary challenges on both sides are not much better.  Early indications show that Oregonians are likely to be less than thrilled by both choices.  And, in this situation in a state like Oregon, the Democrat automatically has a lukewarm advantage.

Pennsylvania
Call: Lean Democrat
Pennsylvania is a fairly Republican state on the local level, but Governor Ed Rendell is doing surprising well in polling considering that he has an approval defecit.  Recent polls have shown him beating both ex-Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Lynn Swann and the more political Lt. Governor Bill Scranton.

It's surprising to see a personable and well-known candidate like Swann doing so poorly so early in the game, even if it is well-known that he isn't a politician. Polls show him losing by a fairly embarassing margin, with Scranton faring slightly better.  Then again, Rendell, an Eagles postgame announcer, also has a sports fan pedigree.  This race may become hot, but at this point, it is surprisingly one-sided.

Rhode Island
Call: Strong Lean Republican
Republican Don Carcieri may not be as well-known of a northeastern Republican as neighbour Mitt Romney, but he is in a better position for re-election, with 60 percent approval ratings.  His assumed opponent, Charles Fogarty, is shown as about ten points behind in most polls, which is reasonable for an opponent to a popular Republican in a liberal state.  Democrats would be wise to focus their efforts in the larger, more approachable race to the north.

South Carolina
Call: Strong Lean Republican
Republican Mark Sanford has annoyed his base a few times in his battles with the state legislature over education issues, but he is fairly solid for re-election come 2006.  His main opponent, Tommy Moore, is little more than the standard "some state senator" candidate.  Florence mayor Frank Willis is little better, and mayors of medium-sized cities rarely get elected Governor anyway.  Sanford could stand to improve his popularity ratings, but even at their current levels, he could easily dispatch all of the candidates the Democrats have to offer so far.

[Jake]

Please inform Lynn Swann that he played quarterback and Terry Bradshaw played wide reciever.

[Alcon]

Please inform Lynn Swann that he played quarterback and Terry Bradshaw played wide reciever.

Google tells me he played it once, so I can continue to pretend I have any idea of what I'm talking about when it comes to football.

Fixed - thanks.

[Alcon]

South Dakota
Call: Safe Republican
Ever since ousting popular (but not popular enough) Senator Tom Daschle, South Dakotans have returned to their habits of strongly liking and re-electing their officials.  Republican Mike Rounds is no exception.  Former state senator Ron Volesky will probably run, and undoutably lose in the usual Biblical landslide.

Tennessee
Call: Strong Lean Democrat
A look through any poll gauging the popularity of Democrat Phil Bredesen is an adventure in amusement.  Why?  Bredesen regularly polls extremely well among Republicans, and is generally disapproved of among Democrats.  In a Republican state, a Democratic governor with such weak approval would normally be between a rock and a hard place.  But not in this case.

Overall, Bredesen's numbers are misleadingly weak.  Whoever it is who eventually ends up running against him will have to decide whether to run to the right of him and cause Democrats to immediately flock back or run to the left and lose the Republican vote entirely.  As a result, the best the Republicans can do is put up a personable, well-liked candidate to out-friendly Bredesen.  But so far no major Republican - likeable or otherwise - has stepped up to the plate.  Bredesen may never be popular, but it's looking like he will be re-elected.

Texas
Call: Safe Republican
It will probably be a while before we see another Republican governor in Texas who is as unpopular as the uber-photogenic Rick Perry is.  Perry should more or less brush off a primary challenger in state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn.  This is the Texas Democratic Party's golden moment.  The only problem is, of course, that the Texas Democratic Party doesn't really exist anymore.  The best the Dems have here is former Congressman Chris Bell, a 2004 primary loser who seems to be the only candidate the Texas Dems have for anything.  There's also Kinky Friedman, who won't win but certainly deserves to be elected to something, if only so he can be on television more frequently.

Vermont
Call: Safe Republican
Toppling an incumbent with an approval rating of nearly 70 percent is next to impossible, even if that incumbent is a Republican in the liberal state of Vermont.  Jim Douglas probably isn't going much of anywhere.  The current Democratic frontleader is state senator Schudder Parker.  It's not that Parker isn't a pretty attractive candidate - he is a former minister and business advisor - but the Democrats need someone more known than him if they are going to stand any chance.  Unfortunately for them, despite recent domination of state politics, there isn't much of anyone there.

Wisconsin
Call: Lean Democrat
Democrat Jim Doyle has had mediocre approval ratings for several months now, and this year's closest state has been mentioned as another possible great battleground for 2006.  Although Congressman Mark Green, who represents the northeastern part of the state, is great on paper, polls show him getting fairly solidly trounced by Doyle.  This is not good news for the Wisconsin GOP, considering a congressman should have at least decent name recognition already.  Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, a primary underdog, fares even worse.  All of this is surprising, and the race may tighten, but at this point, Doyle looks unexpectadly strong for re-election.

[Alcon]

Wyoming
Call: Strong Lean Democrat
Wyoming was George W. Bush's best state in 2000, and his second-best in 2004.  Between those two years, though, the Cowboy State delivered a small victory to Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat.  Freudenthal has turned out to be wildly popular, netting among the highest approval ratings in the country.  The Wyoming Republican Party doesn't have much of anyone to put up, and might even want to avoid spending much effort on this race.  Still, Wyoming is an easy state to campaign in, so a Republican upset is not entirely out of the question.  Until a viable candidate on the GOP side has announced and polling has been released, Wyoming will remain just short of Safe for the Democrats.

[ilikeverin]

Minnesota
Call: Weak Lean Republican
Republican Tim Pawlenty is just short of being outside of the range where he is difficult to beat, a fact that must be quite frustrating to him.  Early polling indicates that Attorney General Mike Hatch would defeat the well-regarded but not widely beloved Pawlenty if the election were held today.  But this comes from an historically less-than-stellar pollster.  Minnesota could produce yet another barnburner, but at this point it's unclear where exactly this race is.

YAY IT'S SOMETHING I CAN COMMENT ABOUT!

Mkay.  Pawlenty is doing pretty decently... being a good Minnesotan Republican he has been like "PRESCRIPTION DRUGS FROM CANADA ARE TEH WOOOOTTTT!!!!!"

However, he has two things that probably could hurt him if voters bother to remember them:
1) The psychotic legislative mess that occured earlier this year which assaulted the approval ratings of everyone in the state legislature and Pawlenty viciously.
2) Pawlenty made a 'no raising taxes' pledge, but again, earlier this year, he instituted a something-cent "fee" on cigarettes, which put a dent in Republican's approval.

Mike Hatch, in the mean time, has stayed clear (I'm not exactly sure how he could get into those messes, but...), and continues {his assaults on large corporations} {which Minnesotans love} ({}'s used to show that I meant Minnesotans love the assaults, not the corporations ).

So I'd say your analysis is mostly correct, pending future polling.  Though Hatch is quite popular, Minnesotans might be complacent for the first time in years

[tarheel-leftist85]

[TheresNoMoney]

map after 2007 elections:

[YRABNNRM]

Is there a reason that you call Weld a carpetbagger when he moved here in 2000 for a law firm?

He was also raised here on Long Island.

[Galactic Overlord]

Ohio
Call: Toss-up (Democrat) [pick-up]
With disapproval ratings approaching 80 percent, you'd think that incumbent Republican Governor Bob Taft had been devouring African orphans on television.  Taft, who has been convicted of a range of misdemeanors relating to golf games and other embarassing fare, is the plague.  The Ohio GOP knows that it will need to find a candidate that does not even resemble Taft if they want to keep favour in a state that is quite Republican on local level.

Republicans have plenty of officials in the running:  African-American Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, state Attorney General Jim Petro, and state Auditor Betty Montgomery.  On the other hand, the Democrats have popular Congressman Ted Strickland.  While Blackwell is rather conservative with an urban tilt, Strickland is seen as moderate and rural.  No reliable polls have been released for the race, but - despite Blackwell's successful self-distancing from the Taft administration - it would be unsurprising to see Strickland leaning.

I think that's an accurate description.  I'd rate it as a toss-up only if Blackwell wins the primary.  Republicans generally hate Taft, and they won't be hot on Petro or Montgomery, and will probably sit out the race.  Then it will lean to Strickland's favor.

[Alcon]

Is there a reason that you call Weld a carpetbagger when he moved here in 2000 for a law firm?

He was also raised here on Long Island.

I was unaware that he was raised on Long Island.  Descriptions I've seen made it sound like he moved to run for Governor.  I've corrected the description.

It wasn't really bias - heck, I support Weld.  He's the only candidate I remotely like on either side.

[Wiz in Wis]

I'd also like to add about Wisconsin, that Doyle has been fundraising like a madman.

[The Dowager Mod]

Well Doyle has no serious opposition either.

[Alcon]

I'd also like to add about Wisconsin, that Doyle has been fundraising like a madman.

Indeed, he has been.

Welcome to the forum, by the way.  Enjoy your stay.