Montana 2024 megathread

[TML]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

Unlike Joe Manchin, there is a very narrow path to victory for Tester. It would require the Montana GOP completely screwing up the Senate nomination, plus it would require a relatively close Presidential race in Montana.

For what it's worth, with Gianforte bowing out of the Senate race, I think Tester's path to victory is actually open. He would have been DOA against Gianforte. He probably has to hope he's facing Rosendale or Zinke, though to have anywhere close to a realistic chance at reelection, though.

Tester has a robust approval rating unlike Manchin and Montana isn't West Virginia. I wouldn't say his path is just "very narrow". It's a tossup, especially against Rosendale.

Remember that from 2014 onwards the only Democrats to win statewide races in Montana were those running for reelection to their existing posts, and that applied to Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018. All other contests during this time period involved Democrats who were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and these contests ended up with Republican wins. On that basis, since Tester is running for reelection to his existing position, he shouldn't be counted out (also remember that he outran Obama by 17 points on the same ticket in 2012).

Of course, this means that pretty much any Democrat running for MT-Gov in 2024 would start out as an underdog, unless Gianforte somehow has additional skeletions in his closet that haven't yet been uncovered.

[TML]

Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.

Speaking of Cooney, he was running for a position he wasn’t already occupying back in 2020 (as was Bullock), so that greatly reduced his incumbency advantage. Additionally, his political instincts weren’t as good as those of Bullock and/or Tester. Furthermore, from 2014 onwards the only Democratic statewide victories in MT have been incumbent officeholders running for re-election to their existing posts (which was true of Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018), while all other Democratic statewide candidates running for posts they hadn’t already occupied (this includes Democratic candidates who were termed out of their existing positions in 2016/2020) fell short in their respective races.

[TML]

Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.

Speaking of Cooney, he was running for a position he wasn’t already occupying back in 2020 (as was Bullock), so that greatly reduced his incumbency advantage. Additionally, his political instincts weren’t as good as those of Bullock and/or Tester. Furthermore, from 2014 onwards the only Democratic statewide victories in MT have been incumbent officeholders running for re-election to their existing posts (which was true of Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018), while all other Democratic statewide candidates running for posts they hadn’t already occupied (this includes Democratic candidates who were termed out of their existing positions in 2016/2020) fell short in their respective races.

I agree with your points. It does seem however like the state is going down the same path as West Virginia, used to be quite friendly to downballot Democrats but is now picking them off one by one as more and more people just vote straight R tickets. Granted Cooney wasn’t an incumbent governor but as the lieutenant to a popular D governor facing an odious character well known for a public act of physical aggression, the race should have been closer than it ultimately was. The fact that both he and Bullock went down by double digits in their respective 2020 races poses a possibly insurmountable challenge to Tester next year. The problem is not that Republicans are winning all the downballot races now, but that they are winning them easily.

2020 was also unique that due to the pandemic, mail-in voting was greatly increased (according to official statistics, almost 99% of ballots cast that year were absentee ballots) and Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning. These factors resulted in many of the new voters being R-leaning instead of D-leaning (since mail-in voting benefits rural whites much more than Native Americans living on reservations), which would explain why Republicans won races in MT by larger-than-expected margins. I don’t expect these conditions to be repeated in 2024, and as for Tester, all he has to do is maintain his popularity and he should be fine (he has dramatically outrun his state’s partisan lean in the past - for example, in 2012 he outran Obama by 17 points, and in 2018 he was the only Democrat to win statewide office that year, aided by the fact that he was an incumbent running for re-election to his existing post).

But I do agree that Gianforte would be favored against whomever challenges him, unless his popularity tanks significantly.