"Can" it. Yes it definitely can. Biden only won it by 2 in a D+5 year so Rs def have the votes to win given more favorable dynamics.
However, I will be curious to see to what degree Trump's relatively strong performance in Clark County (Las Vegas) was COVID related vs how much of it was actual shifts. I ran the numbers a while back and based on other simillar large Southwestern Counties like Maricopa, Harris, and San Diego, one would've "expected" the county to basically have 0 shift from 2016 which may not seem like a lot but would mean a Biden + 4 win statewide which may have felt a bit more comfortable. It is worth noting though that compared to most southwestern cities, Nevada is both abnormally diverse, racially integrated, and also has a very low rate of educational attainment throughout.
Even though this state is more working class and less educated compared to many other states, it should be noted that a substantial share of its working class people (especially in Las Vegas) are unionized, and unionized working class voters are more Democratic than their non-unionized counterparts. This is an important factor that's sustaining NV's current D lean. If unionization in this state declines in a manner similar to what has happened in the upper Midwest and/or Appalachia, then this could tip the state over to the Republicans.
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